CONSERVATIVES TO FORM SECOND MINORITY GOVERNMENT

UNCLAS OTTAWA 001324 SIPDIS SENSITIVE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV CA SUBJECT: CONSERVATIVES TO FORM SECOND MINORITY GOVERNMENT REF: OTTAWA 1316 AND PREVIOUS ¶1. (SBU) Summary: Canada's Conservative party won an enhanced minority in the October 14 federal election, increasing its representation in every region and province except Quebec and Newfoundland. Party leaders of the four major parties all won re-election (although Green leader May failed to win a seat),as did all Conservative Cabinet ministers, except International Trade Minister Michael Fortier (Foreign Minister David Emerson did not run again). The Liberals fell to a historic low in the popular vote, fuelling speculation about Stephane Dion's political future. A low turn-out may have helped the incumbent party. Septel will discuss the implications of the 2008 outcome. End summary. Conservatives score -------------- ¶2. (SBU) In the October 14 federal election, the Conservatives improved their standing in the 308-seat House of Commons from 127 MPs as of dissolution of the 39th Parliament in September to 143 MPs in the 40th Parliament, which will meet in November for the first time. To have obtained a majority (155 seats),the Conservatives would have needed 29 seats and would have needed significant gains in Quebec. The party managed to win ten seats in Quebec -- the same tally it won in 2006 -- but early hopes of doubling or tripling its holdings in Quebec foundered over its controversial cuts to culture and a tough crime platform. The Conservatives lost their three seats in Newfoundland to Newfoundland premier Danny Williams' ABC (Anyone-But-Conservative) campaign. Prime Minister Harper publicly cited new gains among female, immigrant, and urban voters. ¶3. (SBU) The Conservatives cut deeply into the Liberal bastion in rural and suburban Ontario to gain ten seats, as well as picking off Liberal seats in Atlantic Canada and Manitoba as well as one seat in Vancouver. The Conservatives increased their popular vote by approximately 1 percent (38 percent) over 2006. The Conservatives made significant inroads in the suburban belt around Toronto, but failed to win any seats -- again -- in Toronto and Montreal. Liberal woes -------------- ¶4. (SBU) The Liberals saw their share of the popular vote fall to a historic low of 26 percent (from 30 percent in 2006) and their seats in the Commons drop to only 76, down from their 103 MPs in the 2006 election. Strategic voting, particularly by Green Party voters, to avert a Conservative majority did not appear to be a major factor. The Liberals nonetheless performed better than expected in Quebec, where they added three seats for a total of 14 in the province. Most commentators and many unattributed Liberal Party members squarely blamed the performance of Liberal leader Stephane Dion for this political debacle. Other parties gain -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Contrary to early expectations, the Bloc Quebecois managed to gain two additional two seats (one each from the Conservatives and Liberals) and approximately 38 percent of the provincial vote. Its 50 MPs give the Bloc the third largest standing in the 40th Parliament. ¶6. (SBU) The New Democratic Party picked up seven additional seats (with 37 MPs in the 40th Parliament),but still short of its best-ever result of 43 seats in 1988. Its share of the popular vote remained virtually unchanged from 2006 (18 percent compared to 17.5 percent). However, unlike in 2004 and 2006, the party largely held onto its core voters and avoided a last-minute flight of left-leaning voters to the Liberals. The NDP consolidated its competitive position in urban Ontario and Vancouver, and added one new seat to the three it previously held in Atlantic Canada. It Qnew seat to the three it previously held in Atlantic Canada. It retained its sole seat in Quebec in the Montreal riding of Outremont (won in a 2007 by-election),making this the first time an NDP MP ever won election in Quebec in a federal election. ¶7. (SBU) The Green Party increased its popular vote to 7 percent (up from 4.5 percent in 2006),but failed to elect any MPs, anywhere. Leader Elizabeth May was a distant second to Conservative Defence Minister Peter Mackay in the Nova Scotia riding of Central Nova. Low turn-out (by Canadian standards. . .) -------------- ¶8. (SBU) Voter turn-out in the election was approximately 59 percent (versus 64.7 percent in 2006),apparently the lowest level since ¶1898. Pundits had warned that a low turn-out would help the incumbent party. WILKINS