ELECTION 2008: WHAT'S ON THEIR MINDS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 OTTAWA 001316 SIPDIS SENSITIVE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV CA SUBJECT: ELECTION 2008: WHAT'S ON THEIR MINDS REF: A. OTTAWA 1300 B. OTTAWA 1314 ¶1. (SBU) Summary: The global economic crisis has made the economy the defining issue in the 2008 election campaign, with the environment, healthcare, and crime tacking a distinct backseat. Afghanistan and foreign policy are not under real discussion. Polls continue to fluctuate, but the Conservatives remain in the lead, while Liberal leader Stephane Dion has taken new hits. Polls on October 14 will close late, with most voters going to the polls in the evening after work, so results will likely not be available until at least 10 p.m., or even the following morning. A new minority government is the most likely outcome. End summary. ECONOMIC ANXIETIES TO THE FORE -------------- ¶2. (SBU) At the outset of the 2008 election campaign, most expectations were that the economy, the environment, and health care would be the top three issues, with the Liberals broadcasting ahead of time that the focus of their campaign would be their "Green Shift" carbon tax proposal. A September 1 poll had indicated that 33 percent of Canadians felt that the economy was worsening, and 20 percent of respondents cited the economy and jobs as their top issue. Forty-five percent picked Prime Minister Stephen Harper as the best leader to deal with tough economic times, compared to 21 percent for Liberal Party leader Dion. The Conservatives have emphasized a prudent economic stewardship that will preclude major new spending or tax cuts, and its $8 billion platform is half the $16 billion promised by the Liberals and the $51 billion by the NDP. ¶3. (U) The environment -- at 15 percent -- and healthcare (especially a shortage of doctors and nurses) - at 14 percent - were also significant issues in the September poll, while violent crime remained a special concern in western Canada and in urban ridings nationwide. Tackling crime has long been a major focus of the Conservative agenda, including cracking down on youth crime, gangs, and drugs. Promises to toughen sentences for youth offenders appear to have backfired on the Conservatives in Quebec, along with concerns that the Conservatives would cut spending on the arts (despite the Conservatives claims to the contrary). ¶4. (SBU) The global financial crisis -- in particular in the economy of its paramount trading partner, the United States -- has now accentuated anxiety and made how to deal with the economy the defining election issue. It was the key topic in the leaders' debates (ref a) and their subsequent campaign speeches and media interviews. Dion's difficulties in understanding a question in English on the subject in a taped television interview in Halifax - and his request to start the interview again -- on October 9 have already become a new "classic" campaign blunder, with the Conservatives underscoring that a Prime Minister does not get "do-overs" and Harper emphasizing that, ultimately, the Liberals have no real economic solutions. Dion's rating for trustworthiness and competence dropped by nine percentage point in the October 9 CPAC-Nanos daily election tracking, although Harper also lost six points -- with New Democratic Party leader Jack Layton gaining an additional six points and coming within 10 points of Harper's once commanding advantage. Afghanistan off the table? -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Despite the release on October 9 of estimates by Parliament's budget officer that Canada's Afghan commitment to 2011 could exceed $18 billion, the role of Canadian Forces in Kandahar has not emerged as a campaign issue. The figure is more than twice Qhas not emerged as a campaign issue. The figure is more than twice the $8 billion the government had previously predicted, and represents up to $1,500 per Canadian household over a ten year period. ¶6. (SBU) Conservative promises on Senate reform, Arctic sovereignty, and a unified Canada have also not resonated with voters. POLLING -------------- ¶7. (SBU) In the October 9 CPAC-Nanos poll, the Conservatives retained 33 pct support, while the Liberals dropped to 27 pct (with a margin of accuracy of 2.8 pct) and the NDP moving up two more points to 22 pct. The number of undecideds also grew by three points, to 17 pct. Indications are that voter turn-out may be low this year, which traditionally benefits the incumbent party. ¶8. (SBU) Voting on October 14 will be staggered, so that all polling booths nationwide close about the same time (9:30-10:00 pm EST),with strict control over results in individual ridings so that votes on the east coast do not influence voters on the west coast. The large majority of voters tend to vote in the early evening. OTTAWA 00001316 002 OF 002 Especially in such a close race, it will be late on October 14 or possibly the morning on October 15 before any party can claim victory. All indications are that neither the Conservatives nor the Liberals have any real hope of winning a majority. Canada appears poised to face yet another minority government, with all its inherent instabilities and Parliamentary "dysfunctionality." WILKINS