CANADA TO CALL FEDERAL ELECTION ON SEPTEMBER 7

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 OTTAWA 001171 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON SENV CA SUBJECT: CANADA TO CALL FEDERAL ELECTION ON SEPTEMBER 7 Ref: A) Ottawa 305 (Election Primer) B) Ottawa 702 (Canadian Political Parties) C) Ottawa 833 (Green Shift) ¶1. (SBU) Summary: Prime Minister Stephen Harper will trigger a Canadian federal election on September 7 with voting day on October ¶14. The Conservatives are well-positioned to win a second minority government and late August polls suggested they will gain seats in key provinces. However, tight Ontario and Quebec races make the outcome unpredictable, according to our contacts and local media analysts. The economy, the environment, and leadership are the major campaign issues, according to polling data and our contacts. Liberal leader Stephane Dion is especially in the spotlight, heading his first national campaign. The election terminated Anti-Terrorism and IPR bills not yet passed in Parliament. End summary READY, SET, GO -------------- ¶2. (U) PM Harper will meet the Governor General at 09:00 EST on September 7 to request that she dissolve Canada's 39th Parliament and order elections on October 14 in all 308 national constituencies or "ridings" (Ref A),according to a September 5 press release from the PM's office. Harper will launch the national campaign directly after meeting the Governor General. At dissolution, the Conservative minority government held 127 seats, the Liberals 95, the Bloc Quebecois 48, the New Democratic Party (NDP) 30, and the Green Party ONE seat in the elected House of Commons. There were three Independents. The parliamentary dissolution cancels four incomplete by-election races, which will fold into the national campaign. ¶3. (U) In triggering an election now, Harper pre-empts his own legislation passed in 2007 providing fixed-date elections on four year terms, with the first such election scheduled for October 19, ¶2009. Recently, Harper has argued that the existing minority Parliament is dysfunctional and that Canadians need greater certainty in unsure economic times. Harper's government is the second-longest serving minority government in Canadian history (31 months) and our contacts generally believe he will not pay a penalty for calling an early election. THE ECONOMY, THE ENVIRONMENT, AND LEADERSHIP -------------- ¶4. (SBU) The economy, the environment, and leadership will be the principal campaign issues, according to the majority of our contacts. The two major parties will offer distinct and incompatible visions of Canada's economic future. PM Harper and Liberal leader Stephane Dion also plan to question each other's character, competence, integrity, and fitness to hold office, according to party insiders. Neither side expects the conflict in Afghanistan to be a ballot box issue. The Conservatives will run on their economic credentials and hit hard on Stephane Dion's "Green Shift" carbon tax. Harper will also highlight his record on crime, tax cuts, defense and national security, defending Arctic sovereignty, national unity, and consumer and product safety. The Liberals' Green Shift will be their primary policy plank (Ref C), supported by issues of child poverty, HEALTH care, social justice, culture and food safety (in direct competition with the left-leaning NDP). Dion also told media he will run against what he termed Harper's "right-wing hidden agenda," Harper's relations with President Bush, and an ideology that makes Harper "more right-wing than John McCain." Culture and the defense of Quebec's interests are central issues for the Bloc Quebecois. ONTARIO AND QUEBEC: THE MAJOR BATTLEGROUNDS -------------- Q -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Ontario and Quebec have the largest number of seats. They also have most of the suburban and rural swing ridings, making them the principal battlegrounds. Ontario is a key region for the Liberals who hold 62 of 106 seats in the province. Since 2006 the Conservatives have targeted marginal Liberal seats in rural Ontario and have worked to supplant the Liberals as the first choice of federalist voters in Quebec against the Bloc. The Conservatives dominate in the West, the Liberals in much of Ontario and Atlantic Canada, and the Bloc Quebecois in Quebec (Ref. B). The campaign will be a series of highly regional, even local, contests. Late August polls suggested that the parties begin the campaign close to their 2006 support levels when the Conservatives captured 36.3 percent, the Liberals 30.2, the NDP 17.5, and the Bloc 10.5 percent of the national vote. The fledgling Green Party's support has risen to 10 percent from 4.5 percent in 2006. A party needs 155 seats to win a House of Commons majority. The governing Conservatives need 28 additional seats to achieve that objective. COMMENT ¶6. (SBU) The Conservatives are the best funded and positioned of the major parties to contest a fall election, according to many of our OTTAWA 00001171 002 OF 002 contacts. The snap campaign has caught the opposition Liberals off guard, according to several of our contacts. The Liberals had been gearing up to defeat the Conservatives in Parliament later in the fall for an election in late October or November. By forcing the issue now, Harper has taken control of the timing and seized the initiative. The Conservatives reportedly wanted to hold the vote before the economy worsens and before the U.S. election, according to media reports. Harper told reporters last week that he expects another minority government. However, some local political analysts believe the Tories are capable of winning a majority. ¶7. (SBU) The stakes are high for Liberal leader Stephane Dion, who starts the campaign on the defensive. He lags his party in popular support. The complexity of the Green Shift and its introduction amid high gas prices do not help the Liberals. In a recent poll only 21 percent of Canadians trusted Dion to govern the country in tough economic times. However, the Liberal brand is resilient and Dion is an untested -- and perhaps underrated -- national campaigner who could turn low expectations to his advantage. His campaign performance will be a key to the election and critical to his political future. Dion will face a mandatory leadership review at a national Liberal policy convention expected in 2009. Both sides telegraphed to us that the campaign will be negative, centering on the personal battle between Dion and Harper. In this contest, the NDP, Bloc Quebecois and Greens are secondary players, but with the potential decisively to impact the major parties in key three-way regional races. End comment WILKINS