NEW MOMENTUM TOWARD A FALL ELECTION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 OTTAWA 001113

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/20/2018
TAGS: PGOV CA
SUBJECT: NEW MOMENTUM TOWARD A FALL ELECTION

REF: A. OTTAWA 1099

B. OTTAWA 1027

C. OTTAWA 1006

D. OTTAWA 632

E. OTTAWA 884

Classified By: PolMinCouns Scott Bellard, reason 1.4 (d)


1. (C) Summary. Chances for a fall federal election in
Canada are suddenly improving, with both the Conservatives
and the Liberals now seemingly campaign-ready as well as
already upping up the rhetoric while gauging the best
possible timing in terms of economic news and the U.S.
Presidential race outcome. Neither party seems to have any
genuine chance of winning significantly more seats, leaving
the most likely result of the next election another minority
government. The tightrope of Canadian politics remains taut,
leaving the current government -- and, likely, the next one,
whenever it comes into office -- with limited scope for major
initiatives. End Summary.


2. (U) Prime Minister Stephen Harper on August 19 again
upped the ante toward a possible fall federal election by
complaining that the opposition parties apparently had no
intention of respecting the next fixed election date of
October 19, 2009 and indicating that he would have to decide
over the coming weeks whether or not a claimed "paralysis" in
the House of Commons would warrant his recommendation to the
Governor General to dissolve the Commons, even absent the
Conservatives actually losing a vote of no confidence. The
Commons is set to begin its fall session on September 15 (the
Senate on September 16),following three federal by-elections
on September 8 (ref c) but before another by-election on
September 22.


3. (C) According to Liberal Party National Director Greg
Fergus, the likelihood of a fall federal election has now
increased dramatically, leaving only to determine whether the
Liberals would bring down the government or the Conservatives
would bring themselves down (which could potentially prompt a
Constitutional crisis, he commented),as well as the exact
timing -- with a possibility that the Conservatives would
choose the latter option even before the re-opening of
Parliament. He claimed that, while the Liberals remained
much less well funded than the Conservatives (in part due to
trying to pay off remaining debts from the last leadership
race),they were fully election-ready, with a complete list
of candidates (including 20 new ones to seek the seats of
exiting incumbents),campaign slogans and posters, and an
operational campaign "war room" (which he admitted was much
more modest than the Conservatives' -- ref d). He claimed
that a recent poll had put the Liberals well ahead of all
other parties in voter-rich Quebec province, although party
leader Stephane Dion remains personally unpopular. He
predicted that Quebec voters in particular would be
supportive of the Liberals' "Green Shift" (carbon tax)
initiative, although the economy was turning out to be a
bigger issue elsewhere in Canada. He lamented that the
Liberals' generally strong economic performance while in
office was not well known nowadays, and admitted that its
economic team among MPs was almost invisible in the Commons.


4. (C) Fergus commented that fear of worsening economic
news was probably the prime factor pushing the Conservatives
toward an election sooner rather than later, with a secondary
motivation being a concern that a possible Democratic victory
in the U.S. Presidential election could help the Liberals in
any subsequent election. He nonetheless predicted that both
the Conservatives and Liberals would want to await the
outcomes of the four September by-elections before either
party pulling the plug. He noted that, even though potential
Qparty pulling the plug. He noted that, even though potential
voters still did not understand the actual contents of the
Liberals' "Green Shift" plan, "they like the idea that we
have a definite platform that is different from the
Conservatives." He agreed with a public assessment by PM
Harper that no party would likely win a majority in a fall
election, but claimed that a majority would be within reach
for the election after that -- although whose majority, he
admitted, was not clear.


5. (C) Comment: Recent polls indicate a growing number of
Canadian voters would favor a fall election, although still
well under 50 pct. PM Harper's claims that the opposition
parties no longer support the fixed election date -- a
Conservative initiative -- and that the House has become
dysfunctional appear both disingenuous and self-serving,
especially since the Conservative record of legislative
accomplishment over the past year has been fairly impressive
(ref e) and since Conservative MPs have increasingly taken
the lead in blocking committee deliberations as they try to
fend off allegations related to the "in-and-out" spending
schemes and to attempts to influence the vote of a
then-Liberal MP (since deceased) under the previous

OTTAWA 00001113 002 OF 002


government. The tightrope of Canadian politics remains taut,
leaving the current government -- and, likely, the next one,
whenever it comes into office -- with limited scope for major
initiatives.

Visit Canada,s Economy and Environment Forum at
http://www.intelink.gov/communities/state/can ada

WILKINS