NEW MOMENTUM TOWARD A FALL ELECTION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 OTTAWA 001113 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/20/2018 TAGS: PGOV CA SUBJECT: NEW MOMENTUM TOWARD A FALL ELECTION REF: A. OTTAWA 1099 ¶B. OTTAWA 1027 ¶C. OTTAWA 1006 ¶D. OTTAWA 632 ¶E. OTTAWA 884 Classified By: PolMinCouns Scott Bellard, reason 1.4 (d) ¶1. (C) Summary. Chances for a fall federal election in Canada are suddenly improving, with both the Conservatives and the Liberals now seemingly campaign-ready as well as already upping up the rhetoric while gauging the best possible timing in terms of economic news and the U.S. Presidential race outcome. Neither party seems to have any genuine chance of winning significantly more seats, leaving the most likely result of the next election another minority government. The tightrope of Canadian politics remains taut, leaving the current government -- and, likely, the next one, whenever it comes into office -- with limited scope for major initiatives. End Summary. ¶2. (U) Prime Minister Stephen Harper on August 19 again upped the ante toward a possible fall federal election by complaining that the opposition parties apparently had no intention of respecting the next fixed election date of October 19, 2009 and indicating that he would have to decide over the coming weeks whether or not a claimed "paralysis" in the House of Commons would warrant his recommendation to the Governor General to dissolve the Commons, even absent the Conservatives actually losing a vote of no confidence. The Commons is set to begin its fall session on September 15 (the Senate on September 16),following three federal by-elections on September 8 (ref c) but before another by-election on September 22. ¶3. (C) According to Liberal Party National Director Greg Fergus, the likelihood of a fall federal election has now increased dramatically, leaving only to determine whether the Liberals would bring down the government or the Conservatives would bring themselves down (which could potentially prompt a Constitutional crisis, he commented),as well as the exact timing -- with a possibility that the Conservatives would choose the latter option even before the re-opening of Parliament. He claimed that, while the Liberals remained much less well funded than the Conservatives (in part due to trying to pay off remaining debts from the last leadership race),they were fully election-ready, with a complete list of candidates (including 20 new ones to seek the seats of exiting incumbents),campaign slogans and posters, and an operational campaign "war room" (which he admitted was much more modest than the Conservatives' -- ref d). He claimed that a recent poll had put the Liberals well ahead of all other parties in voter-rich Quebec province, although party leader Stephane Dion remains personally unpopular. He predicted that Quebec voters in particular would be supportive of the Liberals' "Green Shift" (carbon tax) initiative, although the economy was turning out to be a bigger issue elsewhere in Canada. He lamented that the Liberals' generally strong economic performance while in office was not well known nowadays, and admitted that its economic team among MPs was almost invisible in the Commons. ¶4. (C) Fergus commented that fear of worsening economic news was probably the prime factor pushing the Conservatives toward an election sooner rather than later, with a secondary motivation being a concern that a possible Democratic victory in the U.S. Presidential election could help the Liberals in any subsequent election. He nonetheless predicted that both the Conservatives and Liberals would want to await the outcomes of the four September by-elections before either party pulling the plug. He noted that, even though potential Qparty pulling the plug. He noted that, even though potential voters still did not understand the actual contents of the Liberals' "Green Shift" plan, "they like the idea that we have a definite platform that is different from the Conservatives." He agreed with a public assessment by PM Harper that no party would likely win a majority in a fall election, but claimed that a majority would be within reach for the election after that -- although whose majority, he admitted, was not clear. ¶5. (C) Comment: Recent polls indicate a growing number of Canadian voters would favor a fall election, although still well under 50 pct. PM Harper's claims that the opposition parties no longer support the fixed election date -- a Conservative initiative -- and that the House has become dysfunctional appear both disingenuous and self-serving, especially since the Conservative record of legislative accomplishment over the past year has been fairly impressive (ref e) and since Conservative MPs have increasingly taken the lead in blocking committee deliberations as they try to fend off allegations related to the "in-and-out" spending schemes and to attempts to influence the vote of a then-Liberal MP (since deceased) under the previous OTTAWA 00001113 002 OF 002 government. The tightrope of Canadian politics remains taut, leaving the current government -- and, likely, the next one, whenever it comes into office -- with limited scope for major initiatives. Visit Canada,s Economy and Environment Forum at http://www.intelink.gov/communities/state/can ada WILKINS