MANITOBA: A CANADIAN ELECTION BELLWEATHER?

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 OTTAWA 001099

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/15/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON CA
SUBJECT: MANITOBA: A CANADIAN ELECTION BELLWEATHER?

REF: OTTAWA 833 (GREEN SHIFT CABLE)


1. (SBU) Summary: Manitoba voters appear relatively
satisfied with the federal and provincial political status
quo, including a federal minority government, although the
city of Winnipeg will see some hard-fought races in a federal
election that could come as early as this fall. Public
reaction to the flagship federal Liberal "Green Shift" plan
is tepid, mirroring divisions among Canadians, and making
recent discussions with Manitoba political contacts across
the political spectrum especially useful with respect to
questions of election timing and national issues. End
summary


A MIX OF PARTIES


2. (U) Manitoba is a paradox. It is a conservative province
that has elected a majority center-left New Democratic Party
(NDP) provincial government since 1999, and elects
representatives from all three major parties at both the
federal and provincial levels. Voters in Manitoba tend to be
pragmatic and cautious, eschewing ideology for practical
politics. Manitoba has 14 federal seats, of which 8 are held
by the Conservatives, 3 by the Liberals and 3 by the New
Democratic Party (NDP). The Liberals and the NDP are
confined to the city of Winnipeg (which accounts for 60
percent of the province's population) with the exception of
the northern riding of Churchill held by Liberal MP Tina
Keeper. Provincially, the governing center-left New
Democratic Party under Premier Gary Doer is in its third
successive majority term with the next election expected in
June 2011 under proposed fixed-date election legislation.
The NDP holds 36 seats in the provincial legislature, the
Conservatives 19, and the Liberals 2 seats. Significant
ideological differences and wedge issues, such as the
environment, crime and health care, separate the parties at
the federal level, but these differences are more nuanced at
the provincial level, where all parties are fighting for the
center.

CRIME AND THE ECONOMY TOP THE WORRY LIST


3. (SBU) This year Winnipeg became the unofficial murder
capital of Canada. Representatives of all political parties
agreed that crime--particularly violent and gang-related
crime in downtown Winnipeg--is the province's primary
political issue. Auto and property theft are also major
social problems. Federal Conservatives have made the justice
issue their own, and local Winnipeg Conservative MPs
emphasized that their offices had received very positive
feedback from the community on their government's anti-crime
program. In February, the Harper government passed its
Tackling Violent Crime Act, aimed at cracking down on guns,
gangs and violent crime, and in the spring introduced new
bills to deter auto and property theft (announced by PM
Harper in Winnipeg). Harper was back in Winnipeg on August 6
to hold a round-table with parents and community leaders on
youth and drugs and to trumpet his new national anti-drug
strategy. Representatives of all parties also agreed that
Manitoba voters are concerned with the economy. With no
fossil-fuel resources of its own, and dependent on federal
transfers for almost 40 percent of its revenues, Manitoba has
not shared in the resource boom in Alberta and Saskatchewan
and its largely agricultural and manufacturing economy is
oriented east to Ontario rather than west to its
resource-rich neighbors. Health care wait-times are also a
major issue, although this is more a preoccupation at the
provincial level.

LIBERAL GREEN SHIFT: A PLAN FOR SOMEWHERE ELSE?


4. (C) In contrast, climate-change -- and specifically the
"Green Shift", the federal Liberals' signature policy (see
Q"Green Shift", the federal Liberals' signature policy (see
Ref) -- does not resonate in Manitoba. Anecdotally, public
opinion on Green Shift appears evenly divided, but privately
Liberal insiders at both the federal and provincial level say
that support is "lukewarm at best" and that the Conservatives
have been effective in branding the Green Shift as "wanting
to tax our eyeballs out." A senior Liberal official close to
federal Liberal leader Stephane Dion confirmed that voters
need more time to understand the policy, and are skeptical
that they will receive offsetting income tax cuts. Unlike
the hostility that the Green Shift has produced in Alberta
and Saskatchewan, Manitobans appear merely indifferent.
Manitoba generates 98 percent of its power through
hydroelectricity and exports the surplus, mostly to Ontario
and the United States. As a clean source of energy,
Manitoba's hydro would not be subject to a carbon tax and its
hydro exports would become more competitive. Gasoline would
also be exempt, although natural gas for home heating and
diesel would cost more.


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5 (C) Many Manitoba commentators told us that the Green Shift
appeared to be designed for Ontario (especially Toronto) and
for Quebec, rather than for the prairies. Popular Premier
Gary Doer, who styles himself as a "Green Premier," has not
endorsed the Green Shift, preferring a cap and trade
approach. His focus on local environmental issues has also
resonated with voters who identify potable water (especially
in rural and aboriginal communities),recreational water
quality in Lake Winnipeg, and the commercial inland fishery
as more relevant environmental concerns.

CONTENT WITH MINORITY GOVERNMENT


6. (C) Federal Liberal leader Dion is not well known in the
province, according to Manitoba Liberal insiders. Although
party members have fallen in behind the leader, a senior
Liberal noted that Dion was not among the top three picks of
local Liberals for leader in 2006. Many told us privately
that they worried he is too distant, too cerebral, and "too
Quebec" to connect with Manitoba voters. Although they
argued that voters have not warmed to Conservative PM Stephen
Harper, one Liberal admitted that even Liberal supporters
agree that the Conservatives have run a competent government
and have done what they promised. Analysts stated that
Manitobans appear comfortable with continued minority federal
government, sensing, as one senior NDP strategist noted, that
"giving one player all the cards is not smart right now," but
the race for federal seats in the next election will still be
competitive.


7. (C) We found a uniformity of opinion that the
Conservatives will hold the rural areas of the province and
the NDP will likely retain its three seats in Winnipeg.
Several contacts said that the Liberals are on the defensive
in their two seats in Winnipeg and one in northern Manitoba.
Liberal strategists insisted that Liberal incumbents Anita
Neville (Winnipeg South Centre) and Ray Simard (Saint
Boniface) are well connected in their communities and would
be re-elected, although they will need to be "aggressive."
The Conservatives have targeted Neville's suburban seat and
are running Trevor Kennard, a well-known former professional
football player with the Winnipeg Blue Bombers, against her.
In August, PM Harper held his anti-drug round-table in
Simard's Saint Boniface riding. In northern Manitoba, Liberal
Tina Keeper took her Churchill riding from the NDP in the
2006 election when two NDP candidates split the vote, but her
prospects against a united NDP in the next election are
uncertain.

A FALL FEDERAL ELECTION?


8. (SBU) Prospects for a fall federal election are unclear.
Federal Conservative contacts said they are ready for a
campaign, but believe that Dion's willingness to trigger one
will depend on his party's performance in three federal
by-elections in Quebec and Ontario on September 8. Liberal
contacts confirmed a "high probability" of a fall campaign,
less because the timing is right, and more because the
federal Liberal caucus cannot continue to abstain on major
policy votes in the House of Commons. However, one senior
Liberal confided that the "window" for an election is small,
and that if Mr. Dion were to trigger an election, he would
try to time the election call for early-mid October, which in
turn would mean a polling day by the end of November. The
contact admitted that the prospect of an election overlap
with the U.S. election was not ideal, but held out the hope
that the Liberals could profit from an "Obamawave" spilling
over into Canada. At the working level, Liberal staffers
complained that they are burning out with election fatigue
Qcomplained that they are burning out with election fatigue
and just want to get the campaign over with. A federal
Conservative agreed that early October is the most likely
time for Dion to trigger an election, if he decides to risk
one.

STABILITY AT HOME


9. (SBU) In contrast to the clear policy distinctions between
federal parties, differences between Manitoba provincial
parties are more subtle, largely due to NDP Premier Gary
Doer's ability to straddle the center and starve the
opposition parties -- particularly the Liberals -- of oxygen.
After nine years in office, Doer enjoys an 80 percent
approval rating. Doer has run a competent, scandal-free
government and set local, practical objectives. A senior NDP
strategist summed up Doer's winning formula as being "an
ordinary guy," but "just that bit more presentable, and a bit
smarter" than his neighbors. In comparison, several contacts
across the political spectrum said his provincial
Conservative and Liberal counterparts seem lacking in
charisma and not yet ready for "prime time." The premier's
supporters and opponents agree that there will be no
substantive change in provincial politics until he leaves
office. The federal NDP will continue to benefit indirectly

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from Doer's high approval ratings, although the federal and
Manitoba NDP do not always see eye to eye on policy,
especially in regard to deficit spending and the economy.
The provincial NDP is distinctly more pragmatic than its
federal cousin.


10. (U) Manitoba will host two significant federal political
events in the fall. The Liberal caucus will hold its annual
summer retreat in Winnipeg from September 2 to 4 to brief
leader Stephane Dion on public reaction to his Green Shift
Plan, and to plot strategy for the return of Parliament on
September 15. The Conservative Party will also hold its
biennial policy conference in Winnipeg from November 13 to
15, the first since it took office in February 2006.


COMMENT


11. (C) National polls continue to show the federal and
Conservative parties statistically tied at between 30 and 34
percent, indicating that the Liberals' Green Shift Plan has
not made an impact since its release in June. Our contacts
in Manitoba suggest that voters have little enthusiasm for a
fall election, and that election preparedness is being driven
more by internal partisan dynamics than by political momentum
or issues. However, the minority Harper government's focus
on a narrow set of practical priorities, particularly crime,
has been an effective strategy in establishing a record of
governance and stability. Manitoba voters appear comfortable
with the status quo, suspicious of so-called "Big Vision"
policies such as Green Shift, and anxious about the economy
and their pocket books. If those sentiments are more widely
held across the country, the incumbent Conservatives appear
well-positioned for a fall election. End comment

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