NORWEGIANS HESITANT TO COMMIT ON PAKISTAN DONORS'

C O N F I D E N T I A L OSLO 000666 FOR SCA/PB E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/12/2018 TAGS: EAID ECON EFIN NO SUBJECT: NORWEGIANS HESITANT TO COMMIT ON PAKISTAN DONORS' CONFERENCE REF: STATE 129615 Classified By: Political Counselor Kristen Bauer for reasons 1.4(b) and (d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: The head of the Pakistan/Afghanistan section of the Norwegian MFA, a former ambassador to Pakistan, was unwilling to commit at this stage to high-level Norwegian participation or any promise of money for the Pakistan donors' conference we are proposing for January. Post believes that the Norwegians might be willing to participate and pledge, but that would require a higher political decision on their part. This cable catalogues, therefore, the Norwegian government's initial concerns about a conference, but these issues may not ultimately be dispositive. End Summary. ¶2. (C) POLOFF spoke to Amb. Janis Kanavin, head of the Pakistan/Afghanistan section of the MFA to discuss the donors' conference. Kanavin had heard about the possibility of the conference, and was initially cautious. He believed the conference was tied to the Friends of Pakistan (FOP) group, and said that many members were unsure of the expectations and role of the FOP and how this conference fit into the picture. After POLOFF explained that in effect the IMF requirements were the impetus and that this was not an FOP initiative, Kanavin remained cautious about Norway's possible contribution and explained the reasons for his caution. ¶3. (C) Kanavin said that he did not know what resources Norway would have available to pledge to Pakistan over and above money already committed to the Afghanistan effort. "We tend to read the US engagement in Pakistan as springing from its interest in resolving Afghanistan, and part of our preoccupation at the moment will be what the US administration will ask of us on that front," he said. ¶4. (C) The thinking in Oslo, Kanavin said, is that Norway might want to coordinate its aid and FOP role in the Pakistan/Afghanistan region with other Nordic countries. Kanavin was especially interested in the role of international organizations, including the World Bank, in formulating the plan of action for what to do with the $4 billion of donor money. ¶5. (C) Kanavin said that the timing is extremely difficult, and it would be hard to be arranging anything with Norwegian authorities between now and the new year due to the Christmas season. Therefore, pulling together a concrete proposal before an early-to-mid January decision would be difficult. ¶6. (C) Comment: While Kanavin is the highest official in the MFA dealing specifically with countries in the region, our sense is that a significant pledge for Pakistan, and even high-level attendance at the conference, will be a sensitive political decision from the Norwegian administration. We have made the MFA aware of the reasoning behind the conference, and would welcome any further information from Washington on the substance, in order to help the Norwegians come to a decision. End comment. WHITNEY