TURNING THE TIDE WITH NORWAY ON JSF

C O N F I D E N T I A L OSLO 000585



SIPDIS



DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE PASS TO DEPSECDEF OFFICE AND DEPUTY

UNDERSECRETARY USAFE INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS LEMKIN, STATE

FOR A/S KIMMITT, CDR USAFE RAMSTEIN FOR GENERAL ROGER BRADY,



E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/29/2018

TAGS: MARR, MASS, MCAP, PREL, PGOV, NO

SUBJECT: TURNING THE TIDE WITH NORWAY ON JSF



REF: OSLO 522



Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Kevin M. Johnson

for reasons 1.4 b and d



1. (C) Summary. Following months of ambiguity and several

conflicting indicators, and after strong engagement by senior

DOD and DOS officials, Norwegian selection of the F-35

Lightning II Joint Strike Fighter appears significantly more

likely. Recent comments by the Ministers of Foreign Affairs

and Defense indicate that the process is on-schedule and will

be decided on the stated criteria which play to the F-35's

strengths. Media reporting has also shifted noticeably and

appears more balanced. This positive shift is a result of

the strong USG push and is important for the protection of

NATO's northern flank, the bilateral relationship, and the

JSF program internationally. End Summary.





The Campaign

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2. (C) In reftel, Post outlined the negative media coverage

and mixed comments from insiders that seemed to put Norway's

selection of the JSF in jeopardy. Norway's selection is

important to the U.S. because:



--We want a strong defense of NATO's northern flank, secured

by the superior capabilities of F-35s in Norway.

--We want to ensure the close U.S.-Norwegian military ties

continue, and participation in JSF will naturally support

this.

--We want high levels of interoperability in NATO.

--Norway will be the first JSF partner to make a choice on

the plane and thus will disproportionally affect other

partners' choices.



3. (C) Post thus requested a dedicated USG effort to ensure

Norway understands the importance of their choice and the

virtues of the JSF. As a result, the Deputy Secretary of

Defense in meetings and phone calls, State's Assistant

Secretary Kimmitt and USAFE Commander General Brady in visits

to Oslo, and post's outreach campaign delivered a strong,

coordinated USG message which publicly professed the

unequalled capabilities of the aircraft and the value we

place on the relationship, and privately pressed for the

selection of the F-35.



Apparent Results

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4. (C) As a result of this committed effort, we now believe

the tide has turned in Norway. The media have recently run a

number of articles from active duty and retired officers

extolling the strengths of the F-35. Commentators who have

previously said the Gripen is the best plane have been

attacked by leading Parliamentarians for being ill-informed.

While articles in favor of the Gripen still appear, there is

now a balance and more accurate reporting of facts which is

working in our favor.



5. (C) More importantly, in an October 24 Ambassador's

meeting, the Foreign Minister, who we judge to be

instrumental in the decision, said we should "trust the

process" which will be on time and based on quality, price,

and industrial participation. There is "integrity to the

process" and if we "sit still in the boat" all should work

out. He stressed the need for political credibility in the

competition, and that the process can withstand uninformed

media attacks. He ended saying we should "have faith". The

Minister of Defense was more circumspect but also said the

process is set and only MOD knows the full data on the

planes. She urged the Ambassador to be reassured about the

process. These comments align with more forward leaning ones

expressed by Deputy Minister of Defense Barth-Eide who has

privately given every signal that the F-35 will be selected.

In fact, in a candid conversation with USAFE Commander

General Brady on 23 October, Barth Eide said: "If you

believe you have the best aircraft, trust the

process. Do not overplay your hand."

What Now?

--------------



6. (C) Despite these reassurances, the selection of the F-35

is still no sure thing, and much can happen before the final

decision. We expect MOD to deliver its recommendation to the

GON any day. The GON in turn will make a recommendation to

the Parliament on December 19 of this year. Given the GON's

political majority position, it can force its recommendation

on the aircraft (for good or ill) through the Parliament.

However, based on the strong, recent indicators, we believe

we need to maintain a steady course by:



--Continuing to discreetly demonstrate USG focus on the issue

and our commitment to the relationship, while being cautious

not to over-assert our position and thereby potentially

affront Norwegian sensitivities on their selection

prerogatives.

--Correcting major factual errors in the media where

necessary.

--Continue to engage in any conferences, debates, or other

public forums on the program being offered by the JSF

partnership, when and where requested so as not to appear

overly confident. We must continue to act as an honorable ad

gracious competitor.



7. (C) In short, we beieve we are close to success and now

simply needcareful shepherding to bring it home. We thank

ashington, EUCM and USAFE for the strong engagemet that

has turned the tide for us, and we look foward to our

continued team efforts to keep Norwa in the program. We

hope the Norwegin experience proves useful in other

countries facing a similar competition.



WHITNEY