SMOKE AND MIRRORS OVER NORWAY'S AFGHANISTAN POLICY

C O N F I D E N T I A L OSLO 000050 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE PLEASE PASS TO EUR/NB AND EUR/RPM E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/24/2018 TAGS: MOPS PGOV PREL NO SUBJECT: SMOKE AND MIRRORS OVER NORWAY'S AFGHANISTAN POLICY REF: OSLO 1161 Classified By: Ambassador Benson K. Whitney for reasons 1.4 b and d 1.(C) Summary: An internal debate over Afghanistan policy in the Socialist Left Party (the most radical of Norway's three party coalition) resulted in statements from the Norwegian Ministry of Defense which on the surface seem to indicate an inclination to push for changes in NATO's Afghanistan policy during the NATO Defense Minister's Meeting in Vilnius. As detailed in reftel, Norway's defense policy is shifting and its behavior in NATO on various issues such as missile defense, responses to Russian missteps and cluster munitions have been less than helpful. However, in this case we believe that MOD statements are part of a Labor Party effort to co-opt existing NATO plans and priorities regarding Afghanistan in order to present the Socialist Left Party (SV) with the image of a victory while maintaining current Norwegian commitments to ISAF. End Summary 2.(C) SV has long opposed Norwegian involvement in Afghanistan and is in principle opposed to Norway's NATO membership. Forced to accept Norway's involvement in Afghanistan (and NATO membership) by other coalition members, SV has waged a successful effort within the government (with left leaning allies in the Labor Party) to: --Put limitations on the use of Norwegian troops in ISAF, including an unwritten caveat which prevents the use or stationing of Norwegian troops in the south, --Push for the UN to take over control of all aspects of Afghanistan operations, --Encourage an independent line from NATO consensus, and --Regularly criticize US military tactics in Afghanistan. ¶3. (C) Despite this success, many members of SV are dissatisfied and are pushing for an even more aggressive stance by SV leadership within the GON. An internal SV party meeting January 26 and 27 produced a unified set of demands that SV believes the GON should push NATO to adopt. Statements from the Deputy Defense Minister Espen Barth Eide made after the SV meeting outlined the main elements that he says Norway will push NATO to adopt. These include: --The UN must be given clear responsibility for coordinating all efforts in Afghanistan, --The UN's field efforts must be coordinated with the regional protection groups, --Military planning must factor in civil strategies, --Regional protection groups must be given more support, --Concrete steps must be taken to bolster regional authorities. ¶4. (C) SV leaders enthusiastically welcomed Eide,s statement and said that these ideas will end "NATO's aggressive warfare strategy." When asked about this quote the Defense Minister did not refute the allegations of aggressive warfare but simply stated that she and other European Defense Ministers agreed that NATO's strategy must be revised to create better coordination of civilian developments and military operations and that the UN should take on a central role. Asked what she would say if the US asked for additional troop commitments, she stated "Norway is already making a substantial contribution. We do not have the capacity to contribute more in Afghanistan this year." ¶5. (C) Reliable MOD contacts claim that Eide and the Minister,s quotes do not indicate a GON desire to alter NATO strategy and that there is in fact no separate Norwegian strategy proposal. This statement rings true and we suspect that the public comments are an effort to cloak expected NATO priorities for Afghanistan as victories for the GON, thus satisfying SV and relieving some of the pressure to withdraw troops. While the GON does go to great lengths to pacify SV, the MOD is equally committed to maintaining its current commitments in Afghanistan. The open question is whether the ultimate Vilnius outcome will satisfy SV. WHITNEY