CYPRUS SHORES-UP CONFIDENCE IN BANKS, RUSSIAN

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 NICOSIA 000814 SENSITIVE SIPDIS STATE FOR EEB TREASURY FOR INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ECON EFIN PREL RU CY SUBJECT: CYPRUS SHORES-UP CONFIDENCE IN BANKS, RUSSIAN INVESTMENT FLOWS HELP REF: A. NICOSIA 759 ¶B. NICOSIA 763 ¶1. (SBU) Summary. Although the Cyprus Stock Exchange has experienced larger losses than most global exchanges, local banks remain solid and confidence in the country's economic future among consumers and businesspeople remains high. This is due to a lack of Cypriot exposure to stock and bonds, foreign and domestic, and the conservative manner in which the banking system has been managed. Also, Cyprus' position as a key intermediary for investment flows to Russia has provided an annuity type of income for the many accountants and lawyers on the island. While the tourism and property markets are expected to decline over the coming months, low leverage and the hope that customers from new markets will take up some of the slack has helped maintain a generally positive outlook. The biggest risk to the economy is if teEuropean counterparties of Cyprus' banks start failing and this causes dominoes to start falling here. End summary. ¶2. (SBU) The Cyprus Stock Exchange has been one of the worst-performing in the world so far this year, down 63 percent. While this is primarily because the exchange is dominated by the three big domestic banks, which investors have sold vigorously like most other banks in the world, there was little concern shown in Cyprus because most Cypriots have avoided investing in the stock market since the local exchange crashed in 1999 and bank customers do not conflate bank stock prices with the underlying safety of the institution. Deposit Insurance Increased -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Two weeks ago, Cypriot finance and banking authorities believed the global financial crisis would largely pass Cyprus bye (reftels) due to the low exposure of their banking system to problematic securities and continued high liquidity. In the face of some data indicating a slowdown in the domestic economy (slowdown in auto and property sales, albeit from high levels) and fear of financial turmoil contagion from their European partners, the ROC is now taking measures to ensure continued confidence in their banking system. On October 7, in conjunction with the decision taken by EU finance ministers, Cypriot Finance Minister Charilaos Stavrakis announced that all bank deposits up to Euro 50,000 would be guaranteed by the government for one year. Following his meeting with local commercial banks on October 8, the minister upped the ante to insure deposits up to Euro100,000 "to consolidate full confidence in the banking system and the island's economy." In addition, the Minister has repeatedly told the press that the state has Euro1.9 billion immediately available to support the banking system although the system "enjoys ample liquidity and high capital adequacy." ¶4. (SBU) The chief economist at the Central Bank, George Syrichas, told us on October 3 that Cypriot banks had increased their deposit base over the last few weeks and there was no sign of depositor concern. He attributed this positive situation to the extremely conservative approach taken by both the banks and the Central Bank. Most loans are simple 1-15 year adjustable-rate with at least 20 percent collateral, and banks lend only about 75 percent of their deposits as a result of Central Bank requirements and the large amount of deposits in the system made by the International Business Units operating on the island (see para. X) . Additional liquidity is due to a 70 percent reserve requirement for all foreign currency deposits. Cypriot banks are net lenders to the European interbank system. Total deposits through August totaled Euro56.35 billion (more than Euro700,000 per capita),up 13.3 percent year-on-year and up 1.3 percent month-on-month. Loan volume is even more robust, up 35 percent so far in 2008 on the back of strong corporate demand. As of October 8, there has been indication of deposit net outflows. Real Estate Sales Down, But Prices Stay Firm -------------- ¶5. (SBU) The housing and property markets, key drivers of growth over the past decade, have declined sharply over the course of 2008 in terms of sales but not in terms of values. Foreign second home-buyers are traditionally from the UK and tend to buy in the Paphos area. We spoke with a major Paphos NICOSIA 00000814 002 OF 003 developer who confirmed that the British property buyer has disappeared from the market due to the downturn in the UK economy and the depreciation of Sterling against the Euro. Nevertheless, the developer is not dropping his prices. Rather, he is delaying future development plans (building permits issued are down 14.5 percent in 2008) and focusing sales efforts on Russia and Eastern Europe.; "even if it takes some time to sell our inventory, we remain very liquid and have always kept our leverage low." Taxes from property sales are down 18 percent this year and, according to the Director of the Land Registry, sales have dropped by an average of 40 percent. Individual Cypriots tend to be reluctant sellers of property and rarely sell under distressed circumstances, with families as a whole providing financial support if needed. Our contacts inQe property sector anticipate low sales volume for several years but only marginal decrease in values. The foreclosure process here is difficult and time consuming, typically it takes at least six years to foreclose on a property, therefore banks tend to work closely with problem borrowers to restructure their loans. Bank contacts tell us that, so far, their non-performing loans remain below 2 percent. The Russian Connection -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Many Cypriots believe that they are somewhat insulated economically because Russia is taking the place of the UK as the country's main economic driver. Finance Minister Stavrakis has said many times that "Russia is Cyprus' most important financial partner." Part of this view is perception rather than reality. As a trade partner, Russia is barely on Cyprus' radar, with 2007 exports to Russia amounting to US$26.7 million (1.8% of total),and imports of US$56.2 million (0.6 percent of total). Total services trade with Russia accounts for only 5.4 percent of Cyprus' global total trade in services of about Euro10 billion. And while tourist arrivals from Russia are increasing at a better than 17 percent annual rate, and Russian tourists are the highest-spending of any nationality, they still comprise only 6 percent of Cyprus 2 million annual visitors. Russians are increasingly important for the city of Limassol, which has about 30,000 Russians as permanent residents and who have supported the luxury end of the Limassol property market for several years. In Limassol, Russian supermarkets, bars and restaurants are commonplace and high end businesses depend on the free-spending Russians for their profitabQity; one marine shop owner said Russians make up about 15 percent of his total customers but more than 50 percent of his profits. Cities like Paphos are making an effort to lure Russians away from their current enclave, but outside of Limassol, expatriate the Russian presence on society and the general economy is negligible. ¶7. (SBU) The biggest source of business with Russia comes from the many Cypriot-registered companies that are created to channel investment to and from that country. Under the Cyprus-Russia tax treaty (signed in the 1980s) Russia withholds only 5 percent on dividends paid to shareholders in Cyprus and nothing on royalties and interest. Cyprus itself, meanwhile, has a flat 10 percent corporate tax rate and a range of double tax treaties with third countries in addition to being an EU member. The result, major accounting firms tell us, is that 70 percent of all their business is foreign-related and, of that, 50 percent is related to Russia. Much of that business comes from Western companies using Cypriot vehicles to invest into Russia, with a minority of transactions coming from Russians reinvesting into Russia via Cyprus. The Russian "Black List" -------------- Q -------------- ¶8. (SBU) Because of Russian concerns that its citizens are avoiding tax through Cypriot companies (although Cypriots tell us Russian government concern is actually to keep a close eye on who has money) Russia has put Cyprus on a "black list," requiring Russian companies in Cyprus that repatriate dividends to Russia to pay additional tax on those funds (although this is contrary to the provisions of the tax treaty with Cyprus). In June, the Cyprus Parliament removed some levels of bank secrecy which prevented quick response to Russian requests for information on accounts. As a result, Cyprus expects to be off the Russian "black list" soon, NICOSIA 00000814 003 OF 003 probably during President Christofias' visit to Moscow in November. While the practical effect of the Russian action was limited - few companies are sending dividends back to Russia - the action demonstrated what Russia could do if Cyprus refused to cooperate. ¶9. (SBU) The Finance Minister estimates that 25 percent of deposits in Cypriot banks are related to transactions with Russia. This would include actual operating companies that Russians have created here to manage their EU operations, as well as funds parked here pending investments and simply paying company expenses from Cyprus as "proof" the holding company is a bona fide Cypriot entity and therefore able to claim the benefits of the dual tax treaty. As the head of the Cyprus-Russian Chamber of Commerce explained, each bill paid, each board meeting attended by a local lawyer as a member of a board of directors, and each transaction undertaken by a local bank earns fees which go right into Cypriot pockets. While Austria and the Netherlands have similar (though not quite as advantageous) tax treaties with Russia, Cypriot officials and business leaders believe that so long as relations between Cyprus and Russia remain good and Cyprus maintains its low-tax domestic regime, this sort of income will continue even if the pace of transactions varies according to economic conditions in Russia. In the wake of the Georgia crisis, bankers tell us that deposits from Russia to Cyprus increased slightly. ¶10. (SBU) Comment. The Cypriot tourism and property sectors are likely to see a decline over the next few months as the British and other traditional European visitors/investors in Cyprus struggle to respond to the financial crisis. It is unclear whether the turmoil hitting the Russian financial system will serve to reduce funds available to send to Cyprus or increase capital flight. In any case, we expect a slowdown in western investment in Russia via Cyprus. But Cypriots learned their lessons about exposure to the stock market after the crash of the local bourse in 1999 and have largely kept their money in property and bank deposits; one reason it was prudent to increase the government guarantee on deposits from Euro20,000 to Euro100,000. Although consumer debt is up, there is no sign people are having difficulty meeting their payments, and business in shops and restaurants remains brisk. The storms elsewhere are of merely passing interest to most Cypriots who continue to feel financially secure. The recent statements by the Finance Minister were largely preemptive, highlighting that local authorities are taking all measures necessary to keep things protected. The Finance Minister's major concern is to diversify the financial sector away from the UK and Russia to Eastern Europe and Asia. The Central Bank governor is more immediately worried about the risk of contagion from failing European banks. Urbancic