CANDIDATES GEARING UP FOR LAST MONTH OF CAMPAIGN

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 NICOSIA 000048 SIPDIS SENSITIVE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL CY SUBJECT: CANDIDATES GEARING UP FOR LAST MONTH OF CAMPAIGN ¶1. (SBU) Summary: January 18 marked the beginning of the end of the Cypriot presidential race, with candidates formally depositing their paperwork with electoral authorities. With no clear favorite, the campaign is bound to become uglier and more personal in coming weeks. Incumbent Tassos Papadopoulos is preparing to up the attack on AKEL challenger Dimitris Christofias, emphasizing the latter's communist, anti-European-integration background while also seeking to expose inconsistencies in his positions and policies. For his part, Christofias has chosen to ignore third-place candidate Ioannis Kasoulides (DISY),and is consumed instead with criticizing the President's "woeful" Cyprus Problem negotiation record. Kasoulides is attempting to stay above the fray, looking to the future and aiming to "win back Cyprus's allies in the EU and broader international community." A handful of additional fringe candidates also have entered the race, although their likely impact looks miniscule. End Summary. -------------- Ballot Grows Larger in Size -------------- ¶2. (U) Nine presidential hopefuls officially submitted their candidacies at Nicosia's Hilton Park Hotel on January 18. Alongside front-running President Tassos Papadopoulos, AKEL challenger Dimitris Christofias, and DISY standard-bearer Ioannis Kasoulides -- each polling between 29 and 33 percent of the vote -- are renegade European Parliamentarian Marios Matsakis (two percent),former Agriculture Minister Costas Themistocleous (less than one percent), and four fringe candidates. The Election Service announced that 515,994 Cypriots were eligible to vote in the two-round elections. Officials confidently asserted that final results for each round will be available just three hours after polls close. -------------- On their Marks for a Close Race -------------- ¶3. (U) Analysts remain unable to predict the outcome with certainty, since most polls reveal the three candidates separated by less than the margin of statistical error. Moreover, experts claim that traditional Cypriot voting behaviors are in flux, a product of the 2004 Annan Plan referendum which saw many rank-and-file disobeying their leaders' voting instructions and upsetting traditionally high cohesion. Further, socioeconomic changes on the island and international political developments over the past two decades have weakened formerly iron-clad ideological boundaries, resulting in an inability to produce safe electoral predictions. -------------- -------------- Papadopoulos-Christofias Confrontation Gets Uglier -------------- -------------- ¶4. (SBU) The Papadopoulos and Christofias teams are convinced they will advance to the February 24 runoff; attacking each other daily, they mostly ignore Kasoulides. In an attempt to co-opt lower-income, AKEL-supportive voters, Papadopoulos has abandoned fiscal austerity measures enacted to ensure entry into the Eurozone, and has announced generous government spending packages. According to Papadopoulos insider Polakis Sarris, the President will announce at least three new givebacks in the run-up to the February 17 first round. Sarris also prefaced a full-scale attack to be unleashed against Christofias. "Powerful" TV spots will highlight the AKEL leader's communist credentials, opposition to the Euro, and policy inconsistencies both before and after he left the government coalition in July 2007. ¶5. (SBU) Assuming that Kasoulides will fail to advance, Papadopoulos's team is already soliciting support from leading DISY figures. Sarris named three prominent "turncoats" who allegedly have pledged to announce their support for Papadopoulos once the first round results are announced. The idea is to preempt DISY leader Nikos Anastassiades from rallying the party behind Christofias, as he allegedly intends to do (supposedly in exchange for Christofias's job as House Speaker). Dismissing polling that predicts a neck-in-neck run-off, Sarris boldly predicts a landslide victory for the incumbent. ¶6. (U) In light of Papadopoulos's recent social spending binge, Christofias no longer is attacking the President's austere economic stewardship. Instead, he has chosen to focus on the Cyprus Problem, attempting to upset Papadopoulos's image as a skillful negotiator and blaming him for bringing the island to the brink of partition. Elements of the Annan Plan negotiation have taken center stage in the AKEL leader's effort. For example, he lambasted the President for failing to capitalize on an alleged offer -- made during the March 2004 talks in Burgenstock, Switzerland -- to return the Karpass Peninsula to Greek Cypriot control, implying that Papadopoulos did not wish to improve the Annan Plan and make it acceptable to G/Cs. Christofias has pledged to continue his "revelations" in coming weeks. -------------- -------------- AKEL, DIKO: Returning Disillusioned Voters to the Fold -------------- -------------- ¶7. (SBU) Polls indicate that between 12 and 14 percent of AKEL voters have defected to Papadopoulos' camp, threatening Christofias's candidacy. In response, the party of late has engaged in a vigorous door door-to-door campaign in even the most remote of communities, attempting to win them back. In pounding the pavement, AKEL reportedly has registered 7,000 new voters in the last three months. Defections also trouble the Papadopoulos camp; media report declining cohesion rates (to 65 percent) within coalition party EDEK. EDEK faithful with strong leftist ties are particularly susceptible to AKEL-orchestrated recruitment, insiders claim. -------------- DISY: We Can Cultivate Allies, Win Respect -------------- ¶8. (SBU) With Papadopoulos and Christofias rutting in the mud, Kasoulides lately has attempted to burnish his statesman's role by showcasing close ties to Europe's preeminent leaders. Cyprus's relations with the EU and broader international community have suffered during Papadopoulos's administration, he charges; he promises to right them during his tenure. Embassy contacts report that Kasoulides must quietly plan meetings with other EU leaders, since he fears the government (read, Papadopoulos) might intervene to cancel them. The DISY candidate is not ignoring substance during his trips abroad; after returning from a January 15 meeting with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, he declared that, if elected, Cyprus's would seek membership in NATO's Partnership for Peace (PFP). -------------- Comment -------------- ¶9. (SBU) With the presidential race remaining too close to call, we plan to leave our crystal ball locked up in the closet. That said, a Papadopoulos-Christofias runoff on February 24 seems the safest bet. In such a scenario, a battle to co-opt DISY voters in the run-up to Round II would wage loudly. Leaders like Kasoulides and Anastassiades will face a rock-and-a-hard-place choice: to support Papadopoulos, despised for his perceived arrogance and anti-DISY diatribes, or to back AKEL, the long-time ideological enemy. Opinions vary over which way they'll turn -- and our contacts believe that many party faithful will ignore their instructions anyway. The worst-case scenario has Anastassiades endorsing Christofias, only to see him lose the run-off owing to rank-and-file DISY support for the President. A bloody power struggle would result, possibly splitting the party permanently.