CHRISTOFIAS SEEMINGLY WINNING BATTLE FOR VANQUISHED

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 NICOSIA 000123 SIPDIS SENSITIVE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL CY SUBJECT: CHRISTOFIAS SEEMINGLY WINNING BATTLE FOR VANQUISHED PARTIES' VOTES ¶1. (SBU) Summary: Following incumbent Tassos Papadopoulos's failure to advance past the February 17 first round of presidential elections, the major parties supporting his candidacy, the Democratic Party (DIKO) and Socialist EDEK announced their decisions to support Communist AKEL leader Dimitris Christofias. DIKO's decision astonished the Cypriot public since it was widely rumored that the party was set to support DISY-backed Ioannis Kasoulides. In fact, DIKO leader Marios Karoyian switched from Kasoulides to Christofias in a matter of hours, feeling pressure from the Presidential Palace but also attracted by the enticing offer to become House Speaker after Christofias's election. Other influential figures and organizations are taking sides, the most notable among them Archbishop Chrysostomos II, who now strongly supports Kasoulides. At first glace, the current party layout appears to favor Christofias, but if DISY succeeds in dividing the electorate into left and right, Kasoulides will stand an equal or even better chance to win this election. End Summary. -------------- DIKO backs Christofias -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Following President Papadopoulos's surprise defeat on February 17, his main backer, the Democratic Party (DIKO),stunned the Cypriot public on February 20 with its decision to support former coalition partner Christofias in the February 24 runoff. In what was described by the media as a thrilling, marathon night, DIKO moved from an early-afternoon position to support DISY-backed candidate Ioannis Kasoulides to a one a.m. decision to support Christofias. Media and Embassy contacts within the parties concurred that DIKO's U-turn was engineered by Papadopoulos, who extracted promises from AKEL regarding his son, DIKO MP Nicolas Papadopoulos, and his political future. According to the same sources, DIKO leader Marios Karoyan, who had supported Kasoulides' candidacy both in the meeting of the party secretariat and later in its executive committee, succumbed to Palace pressure and changed his position at the meeting of the central committee, which voted by 112 to 50 for Christofias. ¶3. (U) Officially, Christofias's and Kasoulides's proposals to obtain DIKO's support did not have major differences. DISY offered four or five ministries, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs; the post of EU Commissioner should the current Commissioner Marcos Kyprianou accept the post of Foreign Minister; and the Presidency of the House of Representative in 2011. Christofias offered three ministries, including Foreign Affairs and Interior, and the post of House President (with immediate effect, since it would be vacated with Christofias' election.) Both assured DIKO that they would not revive the Annan Plan or any other similar plan and would use the July 8 Agreement to reach a viable and lasting Cyprus solution that safeguarded human rights and EU principles. -------------- Parties and personalities take sides -------------- ¶4. (SBU) DIKO'S decision was preceded by the decision of the other coalition partner, EDEK, to support Christofias. The smaller parties that had endorsed Papadopoulos' candidacy, namely EUROKO, the Green Party and ADIK are yet to announce their decisions. It is widely speculated that EVROKO will stay neutral while the Green Party has already given indications that it will support Christofias. In statements to the press over the past two days, Green Party leader George Perdikes repeatedly said that Christofias's positions are closer to his own party's views. All the parties are expected to announce their final decision by February 21. AKEL's prodigal son, former Foreign Minister and Papadopoulos campaign coordinator George Lillikas, announced on February 20 that he will be by Christofias's side in the second round (we're not so sure Dimitris will want him there, however.) ¶5. (U) Meanwhile, Archbishop Chrysostomos II, one of Papadopoulos' most fervent supporters, announced on February 20 his support for Kasoulides. In a strong-worded statement after a meeting with Kasoulides, the Archbishop stated that "the Church unreservedly urges the people to go to the polls en masse next Sunday and vote for Kasoulides." He said the two had reached an understanding regarding the Church's role in education and was confident of their cooperation in the next five years. According to DISY sources, it is expected that many non-affiliated figures and organizations will announce their support for Kasoulides in the coming days. Among them the EOKA 1955-59 fighters' organizations, who fear that if Christofias rises to power, he may open the files of the assassinations of AKEL members by EOKA in the 1950's and 1960's. Former DISY leader and independent Member of the European Parliament Ioannis Matsis also announced his support for Kasoulides, as did powerful right-wing labor union SEK. ¶6. (SBU) Despite the serious setback of DIKO leadership's alignment with Christofias, DISY remains optimistic and seeks to inspire this confidence among its supporters. One DISY contact recalled that Papadopoulos was elected in 2003 with just over 51 percent of the vote, then enjoying the full support of DIKO, AKEL, EDEK, and some smaller parties, which together commanded 60 percent of registered voters. Christofias is in an even more disadvantageous position because he does not enjoy the full support of the DIKO and EDEK voters. "There is a silver lining in every cloud," said the DISY source, explaining that, if Kasoulides gets elected without DIKO's official support, he will be free from any constraints to implement his own policies. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶7. (SBU) Kasoulides's chance to win next Sunday's election depends almost entirely on the success of DISY's ongoing effort to divide the electorate into the traditional left and right and to stir up anti-communist sentiments. AKEL, on the other hand, will seek to capitalize on its (albeit "soft") NO vote in the 2004 Annan referendum and the long history of cooperation with DIKO and EDEK. It is expected that Sunday's election will be another tight race between two very strong candidates. DIKO's decision may appear to have given an edge to Christofias. At the same time, however, it has angered many DIKO supporters who feel they are being manhandled in order to serve the political ambitions of some party cadres.