CHRISTOFIAS SEEMINGLY WINNING BATTLE FOR VANQUISHED

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 NICOSIA 000123

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL CY
SUBJECT: CHRISTOFIAS SEEMINGLY WINNING BATTLE FOR VANQUISHED
PARTIES' VOTES


1. (SBU) Summary: Following incumbent Tassos Papadopoulos's
failure to advance past the February 17 first round of presidential
elections, the major parties supporting his candidacy, the
Democratic Party (DIKO) and Socialist EDEK announced their decisions
to support Communist AKEL leader Dimitris Christofias. DIKO's
decision astonished the Cypriot public since it was widely rumored
that the party was set to support DISY-backed Ioannis Kasoulides.
In fact, DIKO leader Marios Karoyian switched from Kasoulides to
Christofias in a matter of hours, feeling pressure from the
Presidential Palace but also attracted by the enticing offer to
become House Speaker after Christofias's election. Other
influential figures and organizations are taking sides, the most
notable among them Archbishop Chrysostomos II, who now strongly
supports Kasoulides. At first glace, the current party layout
appears to favor Christofias, but if DISY succeeds in dividing the
electorate into left and right, Kasoulides will stand an equal or
even better chance to win this election. End Summary.

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DIKO backs Christofias
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2. (SBU) Following President Papadopoulos's surprise defeat on
February 17, his main backer, the Democratic Party (DIKO),stunned
the Cypriot public on February 20 with its decision to support
former coalition partner Christofias in the February 24 runoff. In
what was described by the media as a thrilling, marathon night, DIKO
moved from an early-afternoon position to support DISY-backed
candidate Ioannis Kasoulides to a one a.m. decision to support
Christofias. Media and Embassy contacts within the parties
concurred that DIKO's U-turn was engineered by Papadopoulos, who
extracted promises from AKEL regarding his son, DIKO MP Nicolas
Papadopoulos, and his political future. According to the same
sources, DIKO leader Marios Karoyan, who had supported Kasoulides'
candidacy both in the meeting of the party secretariat and later in
its executive committee, succumbed to Palace pressure and changed
his position at the meeting of the central committee, which voted by
112 to 50 for Christofias.


3. (U) Officially, Christofias's and Kasoulides's proposals to
obtain DIKO's support did not have major differences. DISY offered
four or five ministries, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs;
the post of EU Commissioner should the current Commissioner Marcos
Kyprianou accept the post of Foreign Minister; and the Presidency of
the House of Representative in 2011. Christofias offered three
ministries, including Foreign Affairs and Interior, and the post of
House President (with immediate effect, since it would be vacated
with Christofias' election.) Both assured DIKO that they would not
revive the Annan Plan or any other similar plan and would use the
July 8 Agreement to reach a viable and lasting Cyprus solution that
safeguarded human rights and EU principles.

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Parties and personalities take sides
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4. (SBU) DIKO'S decision was preceded by the decision of the other
coalition partner, EDEK, to support Christofias. The smaller
parties that had endorsed Papadopoulos' candidacy, namely EUROKO,
the Green Party and ADIK are yet to announce their decisions. It is
widely speculated that EVROKO will stay neutral while the Green
Party has already given indications that it will support
Christofias. In statements to the press over the past two days,
Green Party leader George Perdikes repeatedly said that
Christofias's positions are closer to his own party's views. All
the parties are expected to announce their final decision by
February 21. AKEL's prodigal son, former Foreign Minister and
Papadopoulos campaign coordinator George Lillikas, announced on
February 20 that he will be by Christofias's side in the second
round (we're not so sure Dimitris will want him there, however.)


5. (U) Meanwhile, Archbishop Chrysostomos II, one of Papadopoulos'
most fervent supporters, announced on February 20 his support for
Kasoulides. In a strong-worded statement after a meeting with
Kasoulides, the Archbishop stated that "the Church unreservedly
urges the people to go to the polls en masse next Sunday and vote
for Kasoulides." He said the two had reached an understanding
regarding the Church's role in education and was confident of their
cooperation in the next five years. According to DISY sources, it
is expected that many non-affiliated figures and organizations will
announce their support for Kasoulides in the coming days. Among
them the EOKA 1955-59 fighters' organizations, who fear that if
Christofias rises to power, he may open the files of the
assassinations of AKEL members by EOKA in the 1950's and 1960's.
Former DISY leader and independent Member of the European Parliament
Ioannis Matsis also announced his support for Kasoulides, as did
powerful right-wing labor union SEK.


6. (SBU) Despite the serious setback of DIKO leadership's alignment
with Christofias, DISY remains optimistic and seeks to inspire this
confidence among its supporters. One DISY contact recalled that
Papadopoulos was elected in 2003 with just over 51 percent of the
vote, then enjoying the full support of DIKO, AKEL, EDEK, and some
smaller parties, which together commanded 60 percent of registered
voters. Christofias is in an even more disadvantageous position
because he does not enjoy the full support of the DIKO and EDEK
voters. "There is a silver lining in every cloud," said the DISY
source, explaining that, if Kasoulides gets elected without DIKO's
official support, he will be free from any constraints to implement
his own policies.

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Comment
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7. (SBU) Kasoulides's chance to win next Sunday's election depends
almost entirely on the success of DISY's ongoing effort to divide
the electorate into the traditional left and right and to stir up
anti-communist sentiments. AKEL, on the other hand, will seek to
capitalize on its (albeit "soft") NO vote in the 2004 Annan
referendum and the long history of cooperation with DIKO and EDEK.
It is expected that Sunday's election will be another tight race
between two very strong candidates. DIKO's decision may appear to
have given an edge to Christofias. At the same time, however, it
has angered many DIKO supporters who feel they are being manhandled
in order to serve the political ambitions of some party cadres.