CONFLICT, POLITICS, ECONOMICS AND FOOD: A PERFECT

C O N F I D E N T I A L NIAMEY 000414 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/09/2013 TAGS: PGOV ECON EAGR EAID NG SUBJECT: CONFLICT, POLITICS, ECONOMICS AND FOOD: A PERFECT STORM BREWING IN NIGER Classified By: Donald W. Koran, CDA, reasons 1.4 (b/d) ¶1. (C) Summary: The ongoing conflict in the north, tensions surrounding the 2009 elections, adverse economic developments and rising food prices all combine to threaten Niger's stability. End summary. ¶2. (C) Conflict: The rebellion that broke out in February 2007 is the dominant issue in Niger. The MNJ remains a predominantly Tuareg movement, although members of other ethnic groups have joined due to their opposition to the Tandja government. While actual fighting has been episodic, and the total death toll is probably only in the low 100s, the conflict has consumed the GON, diverting attention from other pressing matters such as decentralization and anti-trafficking-in-persons measures. It has led to a deterioration of human rights, including extrajudicial killings, torture and disappearances, as well as increased restrictions on the press. It has exacerbated Niger's perennially tenuous humanitarian situation, particularly in the north, and limited the ability of foreign donors and NGOs to work there. It has threatened Niger's generally good inter-ethnic relations and strained relations with France, Algeria and Libya. There is grumbling within the military about President Tandja's handling of the conflict, which could increase if the military suffers a major setback. ¶3. (C) Politics: The conflict comes in the run-up to legislative and presidential elections scheduled for late ¶2009. Those elections should mark Niger's first transfer of power from one democratically-elected regime to another. While President Tandja is constitutionally precluded from running for re-election, and has denied that he plans to, he is in many ways acting like a candidate. He may use the conflict in the north as a pretext for remaining in office beyond his current term. Any attempt by Tandja to remain in office would elicit strong opposition, as would any effort to block the candidacy of former Prime Minister Amadou. Amadou can mobilize large numbers of people, and has considerable support, particularly among ethnic Zarma and others from the west. ¶4. (SBU) Economics: The deleterious effects of the conflict have largely offset the benefits of the skyrocketing uranium and gold prices, debt relief, increased donor assistance and three consecutive good harvests. The GON has increased military spending substantially to address the conflict, diverting resources from other pressing needs and contributing to a widening fiscal deficit. The conflict has destroyed the tourism industry and hurt commerce and agriculture in the north. Insecurity in the north has limited new investment in the uranium, oil and other minerals sectors. Donors are reviewing their assistance plans in light of growing insecurity and their concerns about human rights and press freedom associated with the conflict. In addition to these conflict-related trends, Niger has suffered from the collapse in the price of onions, its third biggest export. ¶5. (SBU) Food: Nigeriens spend a large portion of their income on food. Rising food prices are therefore hitting them hard, and could spark civil unrest similar to what has occurred elsewhere in the region, e.g. Cameroon and Burkina Faso. This is a particularly difficult time of the year because many farmers have exhausted their food stores and must purchase food until the fall harvest. This summer's rains will determine the fall harvest. If the harvest is poor, Niger could face a food crisis similar to 2005. Higher world food prices will make it harder for the GON and donors to respond this year than in 2005. There is little food aid in the pipeline. ¶6. (C) Comment: None of the above trends inevitably lead to catastrophe. They are, however, inter-related: negative developments in one area contribute to negative movement in the others. Taken together, they pose significant challenges to ensuring stability, improving living standards, and effecting a successful democratic transition. KORAN