TUAREG PARLIAMENTARIAN ON THE SITUATION IN THE

C O N F I D E N T I A L NIAMEY 000407 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/08/2013 TAGS: PHUM PGOV MOPS PINR NG SUBJECT: TUAREG PARLIAMENTARIAN ON THE SITUATION IN THE NORTH Classified By: Donald W. Koran, CDA, reasons 1.4 (b/d) ¶1. (C) Summary: A Tuareg National Assemblyman sees negotiations as the only way to end the conflict in the north. The GON cannot defeat the MNJ militarily, and its gross human rights violations are only making matters worse, he stressed. End Summary. ¶2. (C) Tuareg National Assemblyman Bridji Raffini provided a pessimistic assessment of the situation in the north in an April 8 meeting with the Charge. He said that the GON may have been right in initially labeling the MNJ bandits and trafficker. The group was basically 2 or 3 people, who may very well have been criminals. That criminality reflected the failure of the GON to exercise control over the region, which allowed the trafficking and banditry to exist. Raffini added, however, that the MNJ does not steal from the local population, and appears to receive financial support outside sources. Raffini said he would have been pleased if the GON had killed the MNJ leaders early on. ¶3. (C) Unfortunately, the GON did not kill the MNJ leadership, but declared war against the Tuareg people, according to Raffini. He recited the litany of alleged GON human rights abuses. He said a watershed in the conflict was the MNJ's June attack on an isolated military outpost, resulting in considerable GON casualties, which was prompted by the security services murder of three elderly Tuareg civilians. ¶4. (C) Now the GON is incapable of achieving a military victory. It's too easy for the MNJ to hide in the region. Raffini said that the current GON offensive in the north would not defeat the MNJ, but would lead to more human rights violations against the civilian population. In addition to killing and disappearing civilians, the security forces were stealing and destroying property, and killing livestock. The GON has restricted travel to the north, preventing any independent assessment of the situation there. People believed to be sympathetic to the MNJ were being rounded up throughout Niger, probably based on phone intercepts. ¶5. (C) Raffini said the economic and humanitarian effects of the fighting were catastrophic. Tourism is dead. The GON's blockade of the region has stopped commerce. Farmers can't buy fuel for their irrigation pumps. Civilians are fleeing to Arlit and Agadez. ¶6. (C) Raffini confirmed press reports that he and other National Assembly members from the north had sought to broker an agreement last fall. They had traveled to the north during the MNJ's Ramadan cease-fire to meet with MNJ leadership. However, the MNJ leadership was in Algeria, and nothing came of the effort. ¶7. (C) Raffini acknowledged that the GON's recent decision to allot 15 percent of mineral revenues to the communities where the mines are located was a very positive development, albeit late in coming; the law providing for the allotment was approved in 2006. Appointing more northerners to positions of responsibility in the north would also address northern grievances. He lamented that the rebellion might have been averted if the GON had put as many resources in the north as it is currently spending to fight the MNJ. ¶8. (C) The only solution to the conflict is negotiation, Raffini stressed. The MNJ does not question the Nigerien state or seek independence, so a negotiated settlement is possible. So far, however, the GON is unwilling to negotiate. Raffini dismissed plans for regional security meetings as pointless. ¶9. (U) Minimize considered. KORAN