DELHI DIARY, MARCH 17-28

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 05 NEW DELHI 000932 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM PTER PREF SCUL SOCI TBIO MASS IN, RS, SW, BT, KZ, TX SUBJECT: DELHI DIARY, MARCH 17-28 REF: A. NEW DELHI 790 ¶B. NEW DELHI 525 ¶C. 07 NEW DELHI 5119 ¶1. (U) Below is a compilation of political highlights from Embassy New Delhi for March 17-28, 2008 that did not feature in our other reporting: -- Terrorists Strike Again in Jammu and Kashmir After a 5 Month Lull -- Congress Strikes Out -- Yet Another Joint Indo-Russian Defense Project Hits the Skids -- PM Singh Plans to Visit Newly Democratic Bhutan -- India Courting Central Asia? - Vice-President Ansari Headed to Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan -- Muslim Women Unveil their Own Marriage Laws -- Supreme Court Issues Interim Stay on Gere Arrest Warrant -- Taslima Nasreen Leaves for Sweden, Castigates GOI -- In a Bid to Overcome Its Medical Shortage, India Recognizes Foreign Medical Degrees -- Tuberculosis Trouble in India Terrorists Strike Again in Jammu and Kashmir After a 5 Month Lull -------------- ¶2. (U) On Wednesday March 16 terrorists attempted to blow up the only flyover at Jehangir Chowk intersection in Srinagar with an Improvised Explosive Device (IED). The blast was particularly disturbing as it took place near the highest seat of power in the state, the civil secretariat. The explosion injured 25 people, mostly civilians. No Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) personnel were injured, according to the media. However Hizbul Mujahideen, a Pakistan-based Kashmiri terrorist group, contradicted the media report, stating there were severe casualties among the CRPF. The group claimed responsibility for the attack in retaliation for the CRPF and army killing of top commander and master IED bomb-maker, Chota Jahangir, on Tuesday. ¶3. (U) Security forces and terrorists engaged in a gun battle only a few days later. Press reports state that four policemen and a top commander of the Pakistan-based Islamic terrorist organization Lashkar-e-Tayyaba were killed. The groups clashed after the police, informed of the presence of Lashkar's divisional commander Abu Faisal in a private house on the outskirts of Srinagar, besieged the area. Two terrorists opened fire on the policemen. (Civilians in the area were evacuated prior to the clash) ¶4. (SBU) Comment: The two events mark the end of a six-month lull in terrorists attacks in Kashmir. In general, Kashmir violence has been down considerably when compared with previous years. The state police recently released a report showing a fall in the civilian killing by over 50 per cent. That trend may reverse, however, as Jammu and Kashmir move to assembly polls later this year. Congress Strikes Out -------------- ¶5. (U) On March 20, Meghalaya's Governor accepted the resignation of the Congress Party's D.D. Lapang as Chief Minister. Donkupar Roy of the opposition Meghalaya Progressive Alliance is now Chief Minister of the state. Lapang had hastily formed a government on March 10 after his party and allies won 25 of 60 seats in Meghalaya's Assembly elections. Governor S.S. Sidhu had accepted Lapang's coalition on the condition that Lapang prove his majority within the stipulated 10 day period (ref A). Lapang, however, stepped down on March 19, knowing he did not have the NEW DELHI 00000932 002 OF 005 requisite numbers to prove his majority. Combined with earlier defeats in Tripura and Nagaland, this latest loss makes Congress 0-for-3 in the Northeast this year. Although Meghalaya has a history of political instability (and more of this "toppling game" played by legislators may occur before the full 5 year term of the Roy government is complete),this latest electoral disappointment further indicates the erosion in the Congress Party's traditional base in the Northeast. Yet Another Joint Indo-Russian Defense Project Hits the Skids -------------- ¶6. (U) The joint Indo-Russian plan to build a medium transport aircraft (MTA) for defense purposes has hit a major snag, with the Russian partner abandoning the project. Both New Delhi and Moscow have spent the past 14 months promoting the MTA project as a solid sign of defense cooperation, in stark contrast to the floundering Gorshkov and SU-30 deals. The defense ministries of both countries signed a protocol of intent to develop the aircraft on the sidelines of President Putin's January 2007 visit to New Delhi they had previously signed a "legally binding" inter-governmental agreement during Prime Minister Singh's November visit to Moscow. According to Russian analysts quoted in the Russian daily "Vedomosti," the Russian aircraft manufacturer Irkut had been negotiating the possibility of the joint venture with India's Hindustan Aeronautics Limited since the beginning of 2000. Yet, in March 2008 Irkut announced that it was unilaterally pulling out of the project, with Russian analysts explaining to Russian press that the company chose to refocus its resources on a potentially more lucrative passenger airliner project. Ilyushin, the Russian defense aircraft company that has already sold several types of aircraft to the Indian military, has stepped into the breach to take over the partnership to co-develop and produce the proposed MTA. Ilyushin may not be able to pick up the slack, however, as even its own aviation division's manager was quoted in media saying that the company lacks the necessary manpower to take on the job. PM Singh Plans to Visit Newly Democratic Bhutan -------------- ¶7. (U) Prime Minister Manmohan Singh is scheduled to visit Bhutan in May, for the first visit by an Indian Prime Minister in ten years and Singh's first visit to a neighboring country while in office. Bhutan recently held successful National Assembly elections and India has promised to "provide all possible assistance..." during its democratic transition. Already, India has provided $2 million in electoral assistance, including training poll officials and helping to set up the Bhutan Election Commission. The Indian Chief Election Commissioner and former foreign secretaries Salman Haider and Shyam Saran were observers at the Bhutan lower house election on March 24. The focus of the PM's trip will be to meet with the new Bhutanese government to discuss improving bilateral ties, especially in the areas of economic and energy cooperation. Bhutan has a huge potential for hydro-electric power, by some estimates upwards of 30,000 MW. India is looking to obtain excess power from Bhutan and their bilateral cooperation is already evident in a 1,020 MW hydropower project in western Bhutan. Last year the current King of Bhutan, Jigme Khesar Namgyal Wangchuk, visited India and signed an updated treaty of friendship allowing for greater independence from India in foreign relations and military affairs, which Delhi has guided for over fifty years. ¶8. (U) The trip to Bhutan could be combined with a visit to Nepal if Constituent Assembly polls go well on April 10. The PM also has plans to visit Sri Lanka in July and Foreign Secretary Shiv Shankar Menon and External Affairs Minister SIPDIS Pranab Mukherjee may visit Islamabad in the near future on NEW DELHI 00000932 003 OF 005 separate occasions. ¶9. (SBU) Comment: Bhutan's peaceful democratic transition is seen as a huge step forward for the small Himalayan nation and India seems keen to remain close and dominant as a strategic and bilateral partner. The other regional visits by high-ranking officials represent the beginning of a busy season for the GOI in foreign relations but they should not be seen as representing significant change in foreign policy in the run up to Indian national elections before May 2009. End Comment. India Courting Central Asia? Vice-President Ansari Headed to Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan -------------- ¶10. (SBU) In the first high level visit to the region in three years, Vice-President Hamid Ansari plans to visit Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan in early April, according to the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA). The last prominent Indian official to visit the region was former Foreign Minister Natwar Singh, who was in Astana in July 2005 for the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Summit. Though the trip has not yet been announced publicly, media outlets claim that cooperation in the oil and energy sectors figures prominently on the agenda. MEA told PolOff March 18 that, though the visit was labeled as routine, the Government of India (GOI) was trying to increase its level of visits to Central Asia. In another GOI vote of confidence for increased relations with Central Asia, MEA External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee announced at a conference on Central Asia March 16 (organized by the Centre for Research and Rural Industrial Development and funded by the MEA) that the GOI was looking into setting up a regional center in Central Asia to teach English, business, and technical skills, and spoke of "natural synergies for greater economic cooperation between India and the Central Asian region where economies are strongly dependent on agriculture and dairy farming." ¶12. (SBU) Comment: Though Mukherjee's pro-Central Asia talk was designed to please his audience of Central Asians, Ansari's upcoming visit is a step up in India's relations with Central Asia, which have not had much momentum since Prime Minister Vajpayee visited Tajikistan in 2003. According to a senior journalist, Ansari is potentially a particularly good envoy for Central Asia, as he is known for his expertise on the dynamics of relations in Islamic countries "better than anyone in the Indian political establishment." A professor at Jawaharlal Nehru University opined that Central Asia's desire to wean itself of traditional influences by Saudi Arabia, Iran and the Russians could work in India's favor, allowing it to try to create a space for itself in the region and match rising Chinese influence. End comment. Muslim Women Unveil their Own Marriage Laws -------------- ¶13. (U) The All-India Muslim Women Personal Law Board (AIMWPLB),a 30-member executive body led by Shaista Amber, unveiled new "Shariat Nikanama" (marriage laws) on March 16. These new guidelines intend to give more rights to Muslim women seeking divorce by providing 17-point guidelines for marriage under the Shariat law - applicable to both bride and groom - as well as eight points on the process of talaq (divorce). The new law makes marriage registration compulsory, broadens the wife's rights, and is applicable to Sunnis and Shias. Ms. Amber contends that the new guidelines are an improvement over the old Nikhnamas and "its authenticity could not be challenged as every provision was in accordance with the Shariat and it quoted the Quran." The NEW DELHI 00000932 004 OF 005 new guidelines, available in Hindu and Urdu, prohibit dowry and domestic violence. They do not recognize talaq (divorce) conducted via SMS, email, phone or video conferencing. They also outline expenses to be borne by the husband in cases of mutual separation or talaq through legal process. ¶14. (U) Comment: As expected, some Muslim groups have taken isue with the new Nikhnamas. Maulana Khalid Rasheed Firangimahali, senior member of the All India Muslim Law Board, criticized the Nikahnama, calling it, "useless and irrelevant" and further stated that with the older, dated Nikahnama, "there was no room for another one." This step by the AIMWPLB indicates more progressive Muslim women, along with their other Indian female counterparts, are beginning to take ownership over their basic rights. Supreme Court Issues Interim Stay on Gere Arrest Warrant -------------- ¶15. (U) On March 14, the Supreme Court temporarily stayed Richard Gere's "kissing incident" arrest warrant(Ref C). The arrest warrant came from a Jaipur court after an individual filed a complaint against Gere and Indian actress Shilpa Shetty for violating public obscenity laws, when Gere kissed Shetty several times on the cheek during an AIDS-awareness event in New Delhi on April 15, 2007. ¶16. (SBU) Chief Justice K G Balahrishnan sent a stern message regarding cases he described as "publicity hunting," saying "filing such complaints and an order like this brings a bad name to the country." Supreme Court Justice R V Raveendran made clear that Gere will not have to appear before a Jaipur court while in country. The court also stated that the initial warrant was baseless in the first place. Gere was scheduled to meet the Dalai Lama on March 21, but postponed his trip so it would not overlap with Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit. ¶17. (SBU) Comment: Common sense seems to have prevailed in India's highest court and the interim stay is expected to become permanent. The postponement of Gere's most recent trip is not related to his arrest warrant, but rather to keep the spotlight on the current Tibetan political unrest during the visit of one of the highest officials in the US government. End Comment. Taslima Nasreen Leaves for Sweden, Castigates GOI -------------- ¶18. (U) Exiled Bangladeshi author Taslima Nasreen left India last week for Sweden. The controversial writer had been living at an undisclosed location in Delhi under tight security after she was forced to flee Kolkata in November 2007 due to Muslim protests (ref B). Before departing she harshly criticized the Indian government, describing her treatment as "cold-blooded state terrorism" to drive her out of the country. Nasreen, whose works have been called anti-Islamic, told the Hindustan Times, "My terrible experience has shattered all notions about a secular and democratic India. For 20 years I have been hitting out against fundamentalism. There has been no physical attack on me. But India, when it failed to break me psychologically, destroyed me physically by denying treatment to an ill person." Media reports Nasreen is recuperating at a posh Swedish health clinic. She plans to write about her experiences on her website and in a new book. ¶19. (SBU) Comment: Since her flight from Kolkata after Muslim protests last November, Nasreen has been a thorn in the side of the ruling Congress Party. The party has been taking criticism from both ends - accused by Muslims of coddling an anti-Islamic writer on one hand, and repudiated NEW DELHI 00000932 005 OF 005 by the BJP for playing communal politics by giving in to Muslim demands and placing her under virtual house arrest. Finally the secular-when-it-suits Congress Party got what it wanted. Nasreen left the country in what amounted to a one day news story. Though the Congress Party does not relish the thought of her return, her residence permit is valid through August. Nasreen told the press she may return, "Just to check whether I can stay in Kolkata." Or to create publicity for a new book launch. End Comment. In a Bid to Overcome Its Medical Shortage, India Recognizes Foreign Medical Degrees -------------- ¶20. (U) After months of shuffling its feet, the Government of India (GOI) began accepting post-graduate medical degrees from five English speaking countries - Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the United Kingdom and the United States. As of March 18, the GOI will accept the degrees on the condition that they are officially recognized and valid in the country of issuance. The GOI already accepts post-graduate degrees from Burma, Italy, Germany, Ireland, the Netherlands, Japan and Hong Kong. The GOI has implemented this policy to overcome its severe medical practitioner shortage. According to the Medical Council of India (MCI),there are 6.8 million allopathic doctors in India, which works out to a very high ratio of 1 doctor for 1634 people. ¶21. (U) Comment: This policy, which will allow Indian students to pursue their medical studies in foreign countries and make them directly eligible to practice in India, may be part of a GOI strategy to attract Non-Resident Indians (NRI) back to the homeland. The new policy does not call for reciprocity from other countries, pointing to India's eagerness to bring its doctors back home. Considering that NRIs currently holding foreign medical degrees from the list of eligible countries will now have the opportunity to practice in India, it seems the GOI has finally made a smart move in its effort to address its medical practitioner shortage. Of course, it could do something totally useful like encourage private foreign investiment in education, but that would go against its statist instincts. End comment. Tuberculosis Trouble in India -------------- ¶24. (U) According to the latest WHO report on tuberculosis, almost one third of the world's populationis infected with TB. Although African countries have the highest rates of TB, India leads the world with 1.9 million new cases each year; and more than 1.5 million of these cases were detected and treated by the highly effective DOTS program (Directly Observed Treatment Short-course),in which a whopping 400,000 providers watch and support patients as they complete a full six-month treatment. Of those detected by the national program, 85% are successfully treated. However, those not treated under the national program may not receive care up to international standards. Though the program is hailed for its effectiveness, the 2008 TB report released by India's health ministry reveals that about 35,000 patients in DOTS dropped out or defaulted on their treatment, risking developing drug-resistant TB. MULFORD