BELLWETHER: UTTAR PRADESH - ON THE SLOW ROAD TO

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 000825 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS DEPT FOR SCA/INS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL SOCI KISL IN SUBJECT: BELLWETHER: UTTAR PRADESH - ON THE SLOW ROAD TO DEVELOPMENT ¶1. (SBU) Summary: On March 12 Polcouns hosted a dinner attended by over 165 in the Uttar Pradesh (UP) capital, Lucknow, to honor longtime embassy contact and friend Dr. Ammar Rizvi. In addition to the dinner, Polcouns and Poloffs held meetings with high-level state officials, local journalists, Shia Muslim leaders, and UP Assembly members from all parties. Poloffs then traveled to Varanasi to meet with local business leaders and hosted a media roundtable. From the discussions it appears that despite the change in political leadership last year, little has changed in UP. Gang violence is down but the bloom has come off the rose of the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) government. Chief Minister Mayawati's ego-driven monument construction in place of true development has turned off much of her non-Dalit vote bank. She will remain a factor in the coming national polls though, particularly because of Congress's extremely weak position in UP. End Summary. The Talk of Lucknow -------------- ¶2. (U) The Polcouns's honoring of longtime embassy contact Dr. Ammar Rizvi provided a successful capstone to the visit to Lucknow. Dr. Rizvi is a Shia Muslim politician who met President Bush in Delhi in 2006 and has hosted US officials for over 30 years, not without some risk to himself. Over 165 people from all major political parties and groups attended the seminar and dinner, which was the talk of Lucknow according to our local contacts. Poloffs and Indians pledged mutual friendship and support between the two peoples and countries. Lucknow Welcomes US Embassy -------------- ¶3. (U) Leaders from all political parties including the Speaker of the UP State Assembly officially welcomed Poloffs to Lucknow on March 12. After press departed the conversation turned to national politics. The consensus was that national polls would be held towards the end of 2008. Poloff tried to engage the leaders on UP politics, but the political elders were disinclined to speak out with their colleagues in the room. But all became very animated as the discussion moved to the US presidential election. To a man, all the politicians predicted that Senator Clinton would win the election. Poloff assured the state legislators that all three remaining candidates are committed to a deep and broad ;relationship with India and that whichever candidate wins, Indo-US ties will only grow stronger in the future. Renewing Shia Muslim Contact -------------- ¶4. (U) Poloff then met with leaders of the Lucknow Shia community. Though Shias make up only 12-15 percent of India's Muslims, they comprise a majority of the Muslim population of Lucknow. The primary speaker thanked the US for removing Saddam Hussein from Iraq and the Taliban from Afghanistan. The group denounced the growing influence of Wahabi Islam (and Saudi money) in India, particularly eastern UP, and called the revivalist Tablighi Jamaat the largest source of terror in South Asia. The group also downplayed the recent Deoband declaration against terrorism. Journalists see Little Progress -------------- ¶5. (U) At a roundtable meeting with journalists on March 12 Poloff reiterated comments made throughout the day about the strength of the Indo-US relationship. The UP-based journalist3 were very interested in future US investment in UP, but Poloff stressed that the private sector makes investment decisions. To attract investment, Poloff stated that the highest priorities for UP should be building infrastructure, educating the workforce and creating a favorable business climate based on good governance and rule of law. Citing the state government's closure of Reliance NEW DELHI 00000825 002 OF 003 Fresh, a chain of small grocery stores, Poloff noted that UP will likely not see increased investment should such policies persist. The journalists asked a few obligatory questions about the nuclear deal, but the topic did not generate much interest among the non-Delhi based reporters or presumably their readers. ¶6. (U) When asked if the law and order situation had improved with the new BSP government, none of the journalists responded favorably. On development, the reporters simply shrugged and mentioned Chief Minister Mayawati's ego-driven building of large parks and monuments to her and her party (as opposed to schools, roads, hospitals, and irrigation systems). As for Mayawati's chances to become prime minister, the journalists expressed doubt that UP voters view Mayawati in quite such exalted terms. They tended to think the electorate would fall back to one of the larger parties in the national polls. But when asked if that portended good things for the Congress Party, the reporters virtually pronounced the party dead in UP. The Congress Party will have to go for a tie up with either the BSP or the Samajwadi Party (SP),the journalists opined, though none had a strong indication of how or when it would happen. According the journalists, Mayawati's overall popularity has declined since her sweeping victory nearly a year ago, but she will still be a force in the coming elections because her Dalit supporters don't really care if development happens or not. "UP politics is impossible to predict," uttered the journalists most frequently. Civ-Nuke not Well Understood -------------- ¶7. (U) At a meeting with UP Members of the Legislative Assembly (MLA) the nuclear deal elicited greater discussion. Most of the MLAs were skeptical, though woefully uninformed, of the deal. The MLAs raised objections to the deal vaguely along the lines of those (mis)represented by the Left, but did not demonstrate much fervor. Reflecting their positions as state legislators, the MLAs were very interested in US investment in UP. Polcouns reminded them that while USAID may have some programs in the state, the private sector takes investment decisions. East To Varanasi -------------- ¶8. (U) After Lucknow, Poloff traveled via road to Varanasi. The rough and uneven road remains wholly inadequate for any kind of mass transit or high volume trucking. Poloff observed few tractors and very little mechanized farming throughout this stretch of rural eastern UP. Entirely observable however, were large BSP posters of Mayawati throughout the state. Mayawati allows no other BSP politician, save party founder and her (dead) political mentor Kanshi Ram, to grace BSP propaganda. ¶9. (U) In Varanasi, Poloff held a roundtable with local journalists who were extremely interested in the nuclear deal. The interest was likely due to the same day visit of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. Speaking to reporters after his convocation address at Baranes Hindu University, the Prime Minister took a few shots at the Mayawati government for not satisfactorily implementing federal employment schemes. He also said the central government was open to funding large scale transit and tourism projects in Varanasi, but put the onus on the state government to submit proposals. ¶10. (U) In two meetings with local business leaders, Poloff was peppered with questions about how to improve private sector connections with US companies. Poloff pledged to work with FCS officers in Delhi and help raise Varanasi's profile for incoming US trade delegations. When asked about law and order, the business leaders acquiesced that the situation was somewhat better under the current Mayawati government. The previous government led by SP Chief Minister Mulayam Singh Yadav was marked by continual violence between competing NEW DELHI 00000825 003 OF 003 mafia-like gangs. "That type of gun violence has decreased, but corruption remains," remarked one of the businessmen. Intense Interest, Tinged with Habitual Skepticism -------------- -------------- ¶11. (SBU) Comment: The turnout to honor Dr. Rizvi and the meeting with the UP Assembly Speaker demonstrates the goodwill the US enjoys in India's heartland. The vernacular Lucknow press heavily covered the embassy visit. From discussions throughout the trip, the nuclear deal remains misunderstood outside Delhi. The tepid opposition voiced in UP seemed to stem from residual anti-Americanism of the Cold War era. Mayawati: The Bloom Has Come Off -------------- ¶12. (SBU) Comment Continued: Though embassy contacts in UP perceived some improvement in law and order in the state, significant corruption remains. Most observers viewed the Mayawati government as no better than any previous government in terms of development. The business leaders understand they will have to grow in spite of the government. Politically, Mayawati's Dalit vote bank seems secure. For national polls the BSP could see its Brahmin and Muslim support wane. Shias Concerned with Rise of Wahabism -------------- ¶13. (SBU) Comment Continued: Poloff's outreach to the minority Shia community helped allay fears that the US was somehow "choosing" the majority Sunnis of India. Clearly, deep divisions remain between India's Sunni and Shia communities, with the latter very concerned about the rise of Wahabi Islam in UP. Though the points delivered by both sides - the Shias stating that Islam is a religion of peace, Poloff responding that US is not anti-Islamic - were well known, the fact of the meeting provided reassurance and put a human face on our Muslim outreach efforts. End Comment. MULFORD