Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08NEWDELHI753
2008-03-12 12:05:00
SECRET//NOFORN
Embassy New Delhi
Cable title:
MEA CHINA JOINT SECRETARY DISPLAYS SANG-FROID OVER
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S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 000753
SIPDIS
NOFORN
SIPDIS
DEPT FOR SCA/INS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/12/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL IN
SUBJECT: MEA CHINA JOINT SECRETARY DISPLAYS SANG-FROID OVER
CHINESE MILITARY BUILDUP
REF: A. SECSTATE 20659
B. NEW DELHI 00724
Classified By: Acting POLCOUNS Joel Ehrendreich for reasons 1.4
(a,b,d)
S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 000753
SIPDIS
NOFORN
SIPDIS
DEPT FOR SCA/INS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/12/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL IN
SUBJECT: MEA CHINA JOINT SECRETARY DISPLAYS SANG-FROID OVER
CHINESE MILITARY BUILDUP
REF: A. SECSTATE 20659
B. NEW DELHI 00724
Classified By: Acting POLCOUNS Joel Ehrendreich for reasons 1.4
(a,b,d)
1. (U) This is an action request: please see para 7.
2. (C) SUMMARY: PolCouns and DATT jointly delivered the US
Department of Defense 2008 report on CHINA to MEA Joint
Secretary Vijay Gokhale (East Asia) on March 11.
SIPDIS
Dissenting with his counterparts in the Ministry of
Defense, Gokhale sees no nefarious intentions in the
Chinese military's enlargement and outward projection,
observing as "only natural" that CHINA would want to
protect its considerable overseas investments and assets.
He expressed doubt that CHINA could sustain its current
level of enlargement and force projection into the distant
future. Gokhale welcomed the suggestion to have DOD CHINA
experts come to India to meet with the Indian National
Security Council. END SUMMARY.
3. (C) PolCouns and DATT jointly delivered the US
Department of Defense 2008 report on CHINA (per ref A
instructions) to MEA Joint Secretary Vijay Gokhale (East
Asia) on March 11. Gokhale thanked the DATT for his
detailed briefing, and noted that the GOI does not produce
a similarly integrated military report on China. Gokhale
conjectured that the Ministry of Defense produces its own
report, but he suggested that it does not share it with the
MEA. He welcomed the suggestion to have DOD CHINA experts
come from the US together with DASD Clad during his April
visit to India to meet with the Indian National Security
Council, and suggested that a meeting could be set up
between them and Deputy National Security Advisor Ms. Leela
Pornappa.
4. (C) Gokhale described a twofold GOI reaction to China's
military buildup: "One, should we be frightened or not? And
two, is what CHINA doing sustainable in the long run?"
Gokhale expressed skepticism that CHINA could maintain its
pace of modernization and enlargement of military forces
into the indefinite future in the absence of immediate and
urgent justification to do so. He mused that as CHINA
becomes a more open society and as the decisions of its
Government become subject to public scrutiny, it may find
difficulty in rationalizing its more costly strategic
decisions.
5. (C) Considering the possible motivations of CHINA in
projecting its force outwards, Gokhale stated that he saw
no malign strategic intentions in this, yet rather "it
seems only natural that CHINA wishes to protect its
overseas assets" in such areas as Africa and the Indian
Ocean. He added that India has not yet witnessed placement
of offensive Chinese force onsite at its overseas
investments, naming Gwadar port in Pakistan as an example.
Gokhale opined that CHINA must take India, Japan and the
two Koreas (north and south) into its calculations when
planning its long-term defense strategies.
6. (S/NF) COMMENT: Gokhale's quick dismissal of concern
over China's military buildup is inconsistent with the
prevailing analysis Post usually hears from interlocutors
both inside and outside of the GOI, and had the feel of
spin. As PM Singh told Secretary Gates on February 26
(septel/NOTAL),most Indians believe that while CHINA may
not be looking for a fight, and while India seeks healthy
relations with its giant northern neighbor, PLA expansion
and China's military development are of concern. The
rivalry with and potential threat from CHINA is an
obsession with Indian strategists, fueled most recently by
an apparent step backward in border dispute resolution (Ref
B). Gokhale's reaction should be seen as his attempt to
take our report in stride. We should welcome his - and
other GOI officials' - willingness for deeper discussion on
strategic talks on China. END COMMENT.
NEW DELHI 00000753 002 OF 002
7. (C) ACTION REQUEST: Post requests guidance on how to
respond to Gokhale's invitation to send CHINA analysts,
possibly in conjunction with DASD Clad's visit, to meet
with GOI National Security Council members.
MULFORD
SIPDIS
NOFORN
SIPDIS
DEPT FOR SCA/INS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/12/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL IN
SUBJECT: MEA CHINA JOINT SECRETARY DISPLAYS SANG-FROID OVER
CHINESE MILITARY BUILDUP
REF: A. SECSTATE 20659
B. NEW DELHI 00724
Classified By: Acting POLCOUNS Joel Ehrendreich for reasons 1.4
(a,b,d)
1. (U) This is an action request: please see para 7.
2. (C) SUMMARY: PolCouns and DATT jointly delivered the US
Department of Defense 2008 report on CHINA to MEA Joint
Secretary Vijay Gokhale (East Asia) on March 11.
SIPDIS
Dissenting with his counterparts in the Ministry of
Defense, Gokhale sees no nefarious intentions in the
Chinese military's enlargement and outward projection,
observing as "only natural" that CHINA would want to
protect its considerable overseas investments and assets.
He expressed doubt that CHINA could sustain its current
level of enlargement and force projection into the distant
future. Gokhale welcomed the suggestion to have DOD CHINA
experts come to India to meet with the Indian National
Security Council. END SUMMARY.
3. (C) PolCouns and DATT jointly delivered the US
Department of Defense 2008 report on CHINA (per ref A
instructions) to MEA Joint Secretary Vijay Gokhale (East
Asia) on March 11. Gokhale thanked the DATT for his
detailed briefing, and noted that the GOI does not produce
a similarly integrated military report on China. Gokhale
conjectured that the Ministry of Defense produces its own
report, but he suggested that it does not share it with the
MEA. He welcomed the suggestion to have DOD CHINA experts
come from the US together with DASD Clad during his April
visit to India to meet with the Indian National Security
Council, and suggested that a meeting could be set up
between them and Deputy National Security Advisor Ms. Leela
Pornappa.
4. (C) Gokhale described a twofold GOI reaction to China's
military buildup: "One, should we be frightened or not? And
two, is what CHINA doing sustainable in the long run?"
Gokhale expressed skepticism that CHINA could maintain its
pace of modernization and enlargement of military forces
into the indefinite future in the absence of immediate and
urgent justification to do so. He mused that as CHINA
becomes a more open society and as the decisions of its
Government become subject to public scrutiny, it may find
difficulty in rationalizing its more costly strategic
decisions.
5. (C) Considering the possible motivations of CHINA in
projecting its force outwards, Gokhale stated that he saw
no malign strategic intentions in this, yet rather "it
seems only natural that CHINA wishes to protect its
overseas assets" in such areas as Africa and the Indian
Ocean. He added that India has not yet witnessed placement
of offensive Chinese force onsite at its overseas
investments, naming Gwadar port in Pakistan as an example.
Gokhale opined that CHINA must take India, Japan and the
two Koreas (north and south) into its calculations when
planning its long-term defense strategies.
6. (S/NF) COMMENT: Gokhale's quick dismissal of concern
over China's military buildup is inconsistent with the
prevailing analysis Post usually hears from interlocutors
both inside and outside of the GOI, and had the feel of
spin. As PM Singh told Secretary Gates on February 26
(septel/NOTAL),most Indians believe that while CHINA may
not be looking for a fight, and while India seeks healthy
relations with its giant northern neighbor, PLA expansion
and China's military development are of concern. The
rivalry with and potential threat from CHINA is an
obsession with Indian strategists, fueled most recently by
an apparent step backward in border dispute resolution (Ref
B). Gokhale's reaction should be seen as his attempt to
take our report in stride. We should welcome his - and
other GOI officials' - willingness for deeper discussion on
strategic talks on China. END COMMENT.
NEW DELHI 00000753 002 OF 002
7. (C) ACTION REQUEST: Post requests guidance on how to
respond to Gokhale's invitation to send CHINA analysts,
possibly in conjunction with DASD Clad's visit, to meet
with GOI National Security Council members.
MULFORD