MEA CHINA JOINT SECRETARY DISPLAYS SANG-FROID OVER

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 000753 SIPDIS NOFORN SIPDIS DEPT FOR SCA/INS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/12/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL IN SUBJECT: MEA CHINA JOINT SECRETARY DISPLAYS SANG-FROID OVER CHINESE MILITARY BUILDUP REF: A. SECSTATE 20659 ¶B. NEW DELHI 00724 Classified By: Acting POLCOUNS Joel Ehrendreich for reasons 1.4 (a,b,d) ¶1. (U) This is an action request: please see para 7. ¶2. (C) SUMMARY: PolCouns and DATT jointly delivered the US Department of Defense 2008 report on China to MEA Joint Secretary Vijay Gokhale (East Asia) on March 11. SIPDIS Dissenting with his counterparts in the Ministry of Defense, Gokhale sees no nefarious intentions in the Chinese military's enlargement and outward projection, observing as "only natural" that China would want to protect its considerable overseas investments and assets. He expressed doubt that China could sustain its current level of enlargement and force projection into the distant future. Gokhale welcomed the suggestion to have DOD China experts come to India to meet with the Indian National Security Council. END SUMMARY. ¶3. (C) PolCouns and DATT jointly delivered the US Department of Defense 2008 report on China (per ref A instructions) to MEA Joint Secretary Vijay Gokhale (East Asia) on March 11. Gokhale thanked the DATT for his detailed briefing, and noted that the GOI does not produce a similarly integrated military report on China. Gokhale conjectured that the Ministry of Defense produces its own report, but he suggested that it does not share it with the MEA. He welcomed the suggestion to have DOD China experts come from the US together with DASD Clad during his April visit to India to meet with the Indian National Security Council, and suggested that a meeting could be set up between them and Deputy National Security Advisor Ms. Leela Pornappa. ¶4. (C) Gokhale described a twofold GOI reaction to China's military buildup: "One, should we be frightened or not? And two, is what China doing sustainable in the long run?" Gokhale expressed skepticism that China could maintain its pace of modernization and enlargement of military forces into the indefinite future in the absence of immediate and urgent justification to do so. He mused that as China becomes a more open society and as the decisions of its Government become subject to public scrutiny, it may find difficulty in rationalizing its more costly strategic decisions. ¶5. (C) Considering the possible motivations of China in projecting its force outwards, Gokhale stated that he saw no malign strategic intentions in this, yet rather "it seems only natural that China wishes to protect its overseas assets" in such areas as Africa and the Indian Ocean. He added that India has not yet witnessed placement of offensive Chinese force onsite at its overseas investments, naming Gwadar port in Pakistan as an example. Gokhale opined that China must take India, Japan and the two Koreas (north and south) into its calculations when planning its long-term defense strategies. ¶6. (S/NF) COMMENT: Gokhale's quick dismissal of concern over China's military buildup is inconsistent with the prevailing analysis Post usually hears from interlocutors both inside and outside of the GOI, and had the feel of spin. As PM Singh told Secretary Gates on February 26 (septel/NOTAL),most Indians believe that while China may not be looking for a fight, and while India seeks healthy relations with its giant northern neighbor, PLA expansion and China's military development are of concern. The rivalry with and potential threat from China is an obsession with Indian strategists, fueled most recently by an apparent step backward in border dispute resolution (Ref B). Gokhale's reaction should be seen as his attempt to take our report in stride. We should welcome his - and other GOI officials' - willingness for deeper discussion on strategic talks on China. END COMMENT. NEW DELHI 00000753 002 OF 002 ¶7. (C) ACTION REQUEST: Post requests guidance on how to respond to Gokhale's invitation to send China analysts, possibly in conjunction with DASD Clad's visit, to meet with GOI National Security Council members. MULFORD