SARAN AND KAKODKAR SEND MIXED SIGNALS ON NUCLEAR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 000524 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/19/2018 TAGS: PREL PARM TSPL KNNP ETTC ENRG TRGY IN SUBJECT: SARAN AND KAKODKAR SEND MIXED SIGNALS ON NUCLEAR TIMELINE Classified By: Political Counselor Ted Osius for Reasons 1.4 (B and D) ¶1. (C) Summary: While Special Envoy Shyam Saran underlined February 18 the importance of completing the civil nuclear cooperation initiative as soon as possible, Atomic Energy Commission Chairman Anil Kakodkar downplayed the urgency during a press interaction February 18. Speaking at an Institute for Defense and Study Analyses (IDSA) lecture, Saran recognized that "political uncertainty keeps increasing as time goes on." Kakodkar, however, softened expectations that the IAEA safeguards agreement would conclude soon and explained that the technical details take time. Meanwhile, the opposition BJP seized on Secretary Rice's February 15 remarks to the House Foreign Affairs Committee and claimed that she supported their assertion that the Hyde Act binds India's foreign policy. A U.S.-India Business Council (USIBC) delegation also heard private assurances from Saran that the government realizes it must complete the safeguards agreement within the next month. We should hold External Affairs Minister Mukherjee's feet to the fire by making the quality of his March 24 visit contingent on his ability to deliver the safeguards agreement to the IAEA Board. End Summary. Saran Tries to Wake India Up To Political Reality - - - ¶2. (SBU) Breaking a long public silence, the Prime Minister's Special Envoy Shyam Saran underlined the importance of the civil nuclear cooperation initiative for India's standing in the world during a February 18 lecture sponsored by the Institute for Defense and Study Analyses (IDSA). Building on the Indian government's effort to stress the multilateral aspects of the nuclear deal, Saran stated, "Our objective is not merely to seek the U.S. as a partner. Our objective is to enable India to have a wide choice of partners in pursuing nuclear commerce, and high technology trade." Moreover, he highlighted the urgency of completing the initiative. "It was our assessment that this favorable international constellation could change and, therefore, we needed to take advantage of this window of opportunity so as to fix our diplomatic gains for the long-term," he stated. Asked about the timeline, Saran remarked, "While there is no calendar deadline, the level of political uncertainty keeps increasing as time goes on, so sooner the better." ¶3. (C) During his meeting with the U.S.-India Business Council (USIBC) delegation led by Secretary William Cohen, Saran admitted that the fate of the nuclear initiative lies in the political realm. According to USIBC Director Ron Somers, Saran advised against lobbying the Communist parties with rewards, such as offering a GE reactor for West Bengal. Secretary Cohen observed that the deaths of Representatives SIPDIS Henry Hyde and Tom Lantos had robbed the nuclear initiative of two strong proponents, and he warned that India's dithering had contributed to turning sentiment in Washington against the deal. Saran responded that headlines like "Now or Never," although true, do not help the Indian government. Kakodkar Downplays the Pressure - - - ¶4. (SBU) Atomic Energy Commission Chairman Anil Kakodkar also discussed the timeline February 18 when he spoke to reporters in Bangalore, but he downplayed the urgency while remaining positive on the IAEA talks. Asked about the IAEA safeguards agreement, Kakodkar responded, "It is a step-by-step process and takes time." He refused to speculate about whether the initiative would occur under a future U.S. president, although he did expect that "we will continue to talk with the U.S." Kakodkar also addressed the substance of the IAEA agreement: "We are working towards India-specific safeguards. We are not looking at a standard template. That is easier, but the fact that we want something particular for India makes it unique..." He also predicted that India would have 30 percent of its energy needs in 2050 met by nuclear energy. BJP Seizes on the Secretary's Statement - - - ¶5. (SBU) Saran's and Kakodkar's comments followed the February 15 reaction from the opposition BJP party, which NEW DELHI 00000524 002 OF 002 interpreted Secretary Rice's statement to the House Foreign Affairs Committee as validation of the BJP claim that the Hyde Act binds India's civil nuclear relations. "The statement by the U.S. Secretary of State confirms BJP's contention that the Hyde Act overrides the 123 Agreement. The Hyde Act bans Indian testing, it also specifies the consequent punitive actions that might follow, including America's right of return of nuclear reactors and other materials sold to India....It makes clear that the U.S. seeks not only to cap and roll back Indian nuclear capability but to finally eliminate Indian nuclear capability," said BJP spokesman Prakash Javadekar. Saran Pushes Back on BJP's Testing Claim - - - ¶6. (SBU) Saran used his February 18 lecture to push back on the BJP assertion about testing. "India retains its legal right to test, that has not been compromised," he explained. "Irrespective of whether we have an agreement or not, there will be consequences if we test. We are asking for changes in the international environment, but in the NSG, 43 our of 45 members have signed the CTBT. To believe that they will not react if you carry out a test is naive. In fact, if we were an NSG member, would we have given another country such leeway? I think not," he stated. Comment: Mixed Signals Means No Signal - - - ¶7. (C) The appearances of Saran and Kakodkar in the media show that the Indian government continues to work on and ponder over the nuclear initiative, but whether India will complete its IAEA agreement in time remains up to the Prime Minister, Sonia Gandhi and Pranab Mukherjee. Mukherjee has sought to travel to Washington for several months, but the stasis of the nuclear deal has held up his visit. We should make clear to him that the quality of his visit will depend on his ability to deliver the safeguards agreement to the IAEA BOG in March. We can also continue to reach out to prominent Congress Party officials, and convey to them that the abandonment of the nuclear initiative will doom the Congress Party's stature in world affairs for years to come. ¶8. (C) Moreover, the political calendar in India works in the deal's favor. Several scenarios put forward when the crisis first arose last year envisioned the Congress Party laying down a sop-ridden budget to placate its partners, and simultaneously submitting the safeguards agreement to the Board. With the budget session starting February 25, and the tabling of the budget occurring February 29, that scenario could still come to pass. In addition, the closer general elections, the more the Congress Party will need to diverge from the Communists in order to compete with them. In fact, Gandhi's February 18 verbal attack on the Left in the northeast state of Tripura, which holds state elections February 23, explicitly reveals the tension that could help undo the UPA-Left linkage and push the nuclear deal through. WHITE