NSA NARAYANAN ENCOURAGES GREATER ASIAN COOPERATION

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 000485 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR MOPS KTFN PK IN SUBJECT: NSA NARAYANAN ENCOURAGES GREATER ASIAN COOPERATION AND LAMENTS THE SPREAD OF THE "AL QAEDA MINDSET" IN MUNICH ADDRESS This message is Sensitive but Unclassified. ¶1. (SBU) Summary: National Security Advisor MK Narayanan unsurprisingly highlighted India,s &benign and stabilizing role8 in his remarks at the Munich Conference on Security Policy on February 10. Although much of Narayanan,s address to the primarily European audience pointed to India,s role in strengthening relations within Asia, he also raised a number of concerns that were obliquely directed at Pakistan. The most direct references were his comment that India faces threats from &nations in the region that are authoritarian, anti-democratic and anti-secular, approximating to failed states,8 and a reference to specialized schools for suicide bombers on the Afghanistan-Pakistan border. He also lamented the growing links between terrorist groups and the spread of the &Al Qaeda mindset.8 Narayanan,s observation that, &Threats to stability from nuclear weapons in the hands of volatile states cannot be discounted,8 was carried widely by the press. Narayanan also singled out Russia as a &major influence as regards stability.8 Although obviously designed to portray India in the best light, the National Security Advisor,s address also offers a rare glimpse of his world view. His assertion that maritime security and combating links between terrorist groups are priorities could offer scope for further U.S.-India cooperation. End Summary. India is a Benign and Stabilizing Force, and Asia is Ascendant: -------------- ¶2. (U) In his February 10 remarks at the Munich Conference on Security Policy, India,s National Security Advisor MK Narayanan stressed India,s &historical role as a benign and stabilizing force in Asia . . . and beyond the region.8 He claimed that India and China had, in the pre-industrialized age, accounted for more than half of the world,s economic output, and predicted that will be the case again in a few decades. Narayanan particularly mentioned the simultaneous rise of China and India, along with Japan and the ASEAN states, as noteworthy. The National Security Advisor also claimed India is involved in strengthening SAARC. Moving further afield, Narayanan mentioned India,s ties to West Asia, and pointed to Russia as &a major influence as regards stability in Asia.8 &The friendship between India and �0A;Russia is not merely time-tested but is one of the most successful of its kind anywhere.8 But Pakistan Is the Elephant in the Room: -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Notably absent from Narayanan,s remarks was any reference to the United States, Europe (other than Russia), and Pakistan, at least by name. India,s northern neighbor was strongly present between the lines, however: &first and foremost are existential threats and vulnerabilities that pluralistic, secular and democratic countries such as India . . . face from nations in the region that are authoritarian, anti-democratic and anti-secular, approximating to failed states.8 In his remarks on proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, Naryanan claimed that &credible reports suggest that the region has been both a source and a destination for proliferation of WMD material and equipment. . . . Threats to stability from nuclear weapons in the hands of volatile states cannot be discounted.8 This statement garnered most of the press attention on Narayanan,s remarks. (There is a slight possibility that Narayanan could have had Iran in mind, as well as Pakistan.) And the &Al Qaeda Mindset8 is the Biggest Threat: -------------- ¶4. (U) Narayanan dedicated a significant portion of his remarks to Al Qaeda and the Taliban, averring that their &ideological narrative8 &spawns not merely a multi-cell structure that is sublimating suicide terrorism into a NEW DELHI 00000485 002 OF 002 legitimizing force, but is throwing up new leaderships across many countries.8 He lamented the spread of the &Al Qaeda mindset from the border regions of Pakistan-Afghanistan, where specialized schools exist for training suicide bombers8 and referred to &Al Qaeda,s elite terrorist network such as the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan and the Islamic Jehad Group (in Central Asia),the Lashkar ) e- Toeba, the Jaish ) e-Mohd, the Lashkar ) e- Jhangvi and the Hurkat-ul-Jehadi Islami and the Taliban (in South Asia),the Jemiah Islamiah and the Abu Sayyaf Group in Southeast and East Asia. . . . .They have forged common funding structures, common training curricula and have a common resource for obtaining explosives and weapons, etc.8 &Today, Al Qaeda,s mindset, he continued, even more than the Al Qaeda network, provides the most pervasive threat to Asian and international stability.8 Need for a &Pan-Asian Security Architecture8 -------------- ¶5. (U) Narayanan also regretted the &absence of a readily available Pan-Asian security architecture, of the type that has evolved in the Trans-Atlantic region.8 He pointed to the increasing need for Asian nations to concentrate on maritime security and develop structures that are not based on &sterile concepts from an earlier era.8 Narayanan closed his remarks by averring that, &India is a globally responsible nation and as our capabilities expand, we are willing, and prepared, to take on greater responsibilities to ensure international peace and stability.8 Comment: -------------- ¶6. (U) In his 2007 address at the same venue, Narayanan focused on the need for expanded financial counterterrorism efforts, and also referred to the state support and sponsorship of some terrorist groups by &certain official agencies across the border.8 His 2008 presentation takes a broader view of the challenges. ¶7. (SBU) In spite of the self-congratulatory tone of Narayanan,s address, the National Security Advisor raised points in his 2008 remarks that could provide an opening for greater U.S.-India cooperation, for example in maritime security. It will be useful to refer back to Narayanan,s statement that half of the world,s container traffic transits the Indian Ocean as we pursue discussions on the Megaports proposal. Narayanan,s observations on common funding structures for terrorist groups could also provide impetus for acceptance of more training and increased action on combating terrorist financing. WHITE