NEPALI MAOIST RE-ESTABLISHMENT OF "PEOPLE'S

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 000442 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/11/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR NP CH IN SUBJECT: NEPALI MAOIST RE-ESTABLISHMENT OF "PEOPLE'S GOVERNMENTS" A SERIOUS DEVELOPMENT SAYS MEA Classified By: PolCouns Ted Osius for Reasons 1.4 (B,D) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Reacting to news reports that the Maoists in Nepal had decided to re-establish its parallel "People's Governments" under the direction of the United Revolutionary People's Council, Ministry of External Affairs Under Secretary for Nepal Manish Gupta told POLOFF that India views SIPDIS this as a very serious development, though he had yet to confirm the authenticity of the reports. Parliament Member Kirti Bardhan Singh told Emboff that if Maoists were to succeed in Nepal, it would be "big trouble" for India. In a series of conversations, Indian policy analysts told Emboff that the Maoists' game plan was to reinstate faith in their ideology, that it was no surprise to the Government of India (GOI),and that India should be careful not to overreact, which would serve only to spur on anti-Indian forces in Nepal. END SUMMARY. The GOI Is Taking the Maoist Reinstatement of "People's Governments" Seriously -------------- ¶2. (C) MEA Under Secretary for Nepal Manish Gupta told Poloff February 7 that, if true, news that the Maoists in Nepal were re-establishing their "People's Governments" under the direction of the United Revolutionary People's Council was a very serious development for India. He said he had yet not confirmed the details of the change with his mission in Kathmandu, but indicated that it seemed the Maoists were playing a new trick, lamenting that it was very difficult to predict the course of elections in Nepal. Samajwadi Party Member of Parliament Kirti Bardhan Singh agreed, telling Emboff that the revival of revolutionary councils was a matter of serious concern for the GOI. "If Maoists, inspired by Chinese, succeed there, it would be big trouble for us," he indicated, adding, "China is our biggest enemy in the region. It never wants India to remain stable and peaceful with her South Asia neighbors. The Indian government, therefore, should handle the India-Nepal relationship with utmost care, as Maoists would like to spoil it." Not missing an opportunity to take a shot at the current United Progressive Alliance leadership's troubles with the Left, Seshadri Chari, National Executive Member of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP),declared that it was high time the Indian 
government liberated itself from the "Leftist clutches" in New Delhi. "The Nepal policy of India is to be written in South Block (MEA Headquarters),not in Communist Party of India-Marxist headquarters," he complained. Indian Commentators: Maoist Pressure Tactics Are No Surprise for the GOI -------------- ¶3. (C) In the first of several conversations Emboff had with Indian analysts and commentators February 8, "India Today" journalist Saurabh Shukla suggested that the development was nothing but pure pressure tactics on the part of the Maoists. "By reviving revolutionary councils, (the Maoists') game plan is to revive the trust and imagination of people in Maoist ideology and actions," he stated, warning, "The GOI should be cautious on this one, as Maoist control would worsen the regional security scenario...and overreacting to it would help the anti-Indian forces in Nepal." Diplomatic Affairs Editor for the "Indian Express," Indrani Bagchi speculated that the move was no surprise for "those in the know" in the GOI. "Maoists are decreasing in popularity. By reviving the revolutionary councils, they hope to revive some of their old base," she conjectured. The Maoists - "Political Player Number Three" -------------- ¶4. (C) Weighing in on Maoist intentions, news editor Sanjay Kapoor emphasized that the Maoists would "not think twice about destroying everything, including democratic institutions." Dr. P.G. Raja Mohan, research fellow of the Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies, opined that the Maoists were using pressure tactics to ensure Nepal's major players agreed to integrate Maoists combatants with the Nepalese National Army. Sandeep Dikshit, defense correspondent of "The Hindu," commented that Maoists were aware that, compared to the Nepali Congress and the United NEW DELHI 00000442 002 OF 002 Marxist-Leninist parties, they were still perceived as "political player number three," adding that "they were not the same old Maoists" who enjoyed rural popular support. "Now the Madhesis are a rival force and their own cadre has experienced much disillusionment," Dikshit observed. GOI Lying Low -------------- ¶5. (C) Comment: The specific tactic of reinstating the "People's Governments" may not have come as a surprise to New Delhi. Certainly Maoist intentions of using pressure tactics to usurp power is seen as nothing new here. As Post has previously reported, our interlocutors at the MEA have consistently expressed concerns that the Maoists would stop at nothing to gain power in Nepal and have expressed doubt that the Government of Nepal (GON) has the political will and/or know-how to successfully hold elections. Though this latest move by the Maoists is clearly serious in Indian eyes, the GOI has yet to comment publicly on it, likely in order to avoid consistent criticism from the press that New Delhi interferes in Nepalese policy. Chari's complaint, that Nepal policy shouldn't be dictated by the Left, has some validity. Communist Party of India-Marxist (CPM) leaders regularly travel to Kathmandu to meet with the Maoists, and they influence, in particular, Foreign Minister Mukherjee's thinking. End comment. MULFORD