GOI WARNS POWELL OF GROWING UML-MAOIST ALLIANCE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 000332

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/01/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV MARR MOPS KDEM NP IN
SUBJECT: GOI WARNS POWELL OF GROWING UML-MAOIST ALLIANCE
AND PROMISES TO INCREASE INDO-NEPAL BORDER SECURITY

Classified By: PolCouns Ted Osius for Reasons 1.4 (B,D)


1. (C) SUMMARY: Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) Joint
Secretary for North (Nepal and Bhutan) Preeti Saran told

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Ambassador Nancy Powell she thought the United
Marxist-Leninist (UML) Party and the Maoists were forming an
alliance ahead of Nepali elections. Saran expressed concern
that Nepali civil servants were fearful of speaking out
against the increasing influence of the Maoist-organized
Youth Communist League (YCL) in Nepal's bureaucracy.
Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) Secretary for Border
Management Umesh Narayan Panjiar confirmed to Ambassador
Powell the Government of India's (GOI) full support to Nepal
to ensure that criminal elements and violence were kept to a
minimum on the Indo-Nepal border during elections. A group
of roundtable experts told Ambassador Powell that India used
the Terai to maintain balance in the region, that the Maoists
were prepared to move into a post-election vacuum, and that
Nepal's political parties were not prepared for elections.
END SUMMARY.

MEA Concerned Over "Newfound UML-Maoist Unity"
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2. (C) In a January 30 meeting, MEA Joint Secretary for
North (Nepal and Bhutan) Preeti Saran expressed concern to
Ambassador Powell that a "newfound Left unity" among the UML
Party and the Maoists was taking root in Nepal. Recent
Nepali delegations related a "disturbing trend" of the
Maoist-run YCL's "creep into civil bureaucracy," according to
Saran, adding that Nepali civil bureaucrats were increasingly
fearful of repercussions for expressing dissenting views.
Ambassador Powell assessed that the increasing YCL activity
was worrisome, but had been more noticeable in threats to the
business community than to the civil service. She thought it
was unlikely the UML would move toward a post-election
alliance with the Maoists. Citing a recent news item, Saran
inquired whether the USG position had changed vis-a-vis
Maoists. Ambassador Powell replied that the story was a
complete fabrication of the media, and that the U.S. position
had not changed.

MHA Committed to Border Security for Nepal Elections
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3. (C) MHA Secretary for Border Management Umesh Narayan
Panjiar assured Ambassador Powell January 30 that the GOI
would provide all possible support to the Government of Nepal
(GON) to ensure free and fair elections, and that border
forces would be increased during elections. It was essential
that the Indian border patrol (Sashastra Seema Bal (SSB))
work with Indian states and the GON to keep criminal elements
from crossing the border into the Terai during elections,
said Panjiar. He conceded, however, that substantial
coverage of the long border was not possible, given the
frequent daily crossings of local villagers. Asked if the
SSB used technology such as night-imaging to police the
border, Panjiar replied that it did not, revealing that the
level of sophistication on the Indo-Nepal border was not as
great as that of the Indo-Pakistan or Indo-Bangladesh
borders. However, equipment would be upgraded for the Nepali
elections, he maintained. Ambassador Powell noted that
violence surrounding political rallies was an issue of
concern. Panjiar agreed, stating that the violence "needed
to be stopped," but did not elaborate on how border forces
would prevent it.

Indian Analysts: India Uses the Terai to Maintain Balance
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4. (C) In a roundtable discussion January 30, former
Ambassador to Nepal K.V. Rajan opined that conflict in the
Terai had always been an issue, and was nothing new. Dr.
Ajai Sahni, Executive Director of the Institute of Conflict
Management, suggested that events in the Terai were used by
India to maintain balance in the region. Ravi Nair,
Executive Director of the South Asia Human Rights
Documentation Center, theorized the Maoists were no longer
interested in operating in the Terai since they no longer
controlled it, coining it the "Maoists' Frankenstein."
Ambassador Powell underlined that India had an opportunity to
play a positive role on many issues in the Terai, but had not
yet stepped up to the plate.


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A Vacuum of Leadership
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5. (C) Rajan indicated that a vacuum of leadership was
looming in Nepal, asserting that the Maoists had both
privately and publicly made clear that they would not accept
the results of an election. "Their behavior indicates they
mean it," Rajan emphasized. The army, he added, was looking
forward to having a place in the emerging structure in Nepal,
and pointed out that "all parties conduct themselves as if no
election will happen." Nair concurred, stating that the
Maoists were positioning themselves to muscle their way
center stage post-elections. Defense analyst Major General
Ashok Mehta, declaring that "not a leaf moves in Nepal"
without the Maoists' approval, claimed that it was not
possible to have a free and fair election. Both Schni and
Nair warned against dismissing the right-wing Rashtriya
Prajatantra Party (RPP),observing that it was distancing
itself from a monarchy-specific agenda. "There is always a
group of people who want to get back to the old order,"
argued Sahni.

Indo-Nepal Military Relationship on the Rise
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6. (C) On the military front, Mehta indicated that the GOI
had resumed full military relations with Nepal and that
Indo-Nepal training programs had grown and were now on par
with Indo-Sri Lankan programs, though Nepal was short of
training ammunition.


7. (U) Ambassador Powell cleared this cable.
MULFORD