LAND OF THE THUNDER DRAGON IMPRESSES CODEL MCCAIN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 05 NEW DELHI 003187 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/19/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL PREF PHUM KNNP BH IN CH SUBJECT: LAND OF THE THUNDER DRAGON IMPRESSES CODEL MCCAIN REF: A. A) NEW DELHI 03016 ¶B. B) NEW DELHI 00971 ¶C. C) NEW DELHI 00202 Classified By: DCM Steven White. Reasons: 1.4(B, D). ¶1. (SBU) Summary. The December 3-5 visit to Bhutan of Senators McCain, Lieberman, and Graham demonstrated strong U.S. support for the tiny Himalayan kingdom as this historic year draws to a close. The delegation met with the current and former Kings, the Prime Minister, the Foreign Minister, the Opposition Party Leader, and the Chief Justice. Throughout the meetings, the Senators praised Bhutan,s successful transition to democracy, its firmly established rule of law, the exemplary quality of its leadership, and its ability to safeguard its security and sovereignty in a "difficult neighborhood." Topics discussed include establishing formal diplomatic relations with the U.S., the Indo-Pak crisis in the aftermath of the Mumbai terror attacks, Bhutan's democratic transition, World Trade Organization (WTO) accession, and climate change. The Royal Government of Bhutan (RGOB) received the high-level delegation with appropriate pomp, heralding the visit as a major step forward in U.S.-Bhutan relations. End Summary. Meet the Thunder Dragon! -------------- ¶2. (U) During the December 3-5 visit of Senators McCain, Lieberman, and Graham, the RGOB spared no expense to honor the high-level delegation and proudly display Bhutanese culture. In every meeting, Senator McCain expressed appreciation for Bhutan's smooth transformation into a "cradle of democracy." In turn, RGOB officials, starting with Prime Minister Jigme Thinley, congratulated McCain on his presidential campaign. Thinley called it a "heroic campaign" and said he believes McCain has triumphed "by accepting defeat with grace." Similar sentiments were echoed by both the current and former Kings, who noted that McCain set an "example for young democracies like Bhutan." U.S.-Bhutan Relations "Inevitable...in Three Years" -------------- ¶3. (U) Senator Lieberman asked the PM and the King about the possibility of establishing diplomatic relations, with the caveat that the USG will not push Bhutan on the matter. In response, RGOB officials were quick to highlight the success of visits and informal exchanges. The current King, Jigme Khesar Namgyel Wangchuck, told the Senators he "cherished" the visit of such a high-level delegation and views it as "one step forward" for the U.S.-Bhutan friendship which he hopes to strengthen in coming years. PM Thinley emphasized that despite not having formal relations, the U.S. indirectly plays a role in Bhutan's democratic development as several leaders, especially cabinet ministers, received their education in the U.S. He also pointed to the "steady flow" of International Visitor Leadership Program (IVLP) participants who have visited the U.S. since 1998. Additionally, Americans make up the great majority of Bhutan's tourists. The PM also noted that the U.S. presence in Bhutan is growing, especially through informal support and cultural interaction. ¶4. (C) PM Thinley said formal diplomatic relations are "inevitable" and that Bhutan realizes that diplomatic relations would provide a greater benefit to Bhutan than to the U.S. He hopes relations will be established in the near future, but cautioned that Bhutan is sandwiched between India and China and must consider the responses of both nations when expanding diplomatic ties. Bhutan does not yet have "normal relations" with China given the border dispute, but Bhutan "pursues this matter energetically" and has engaged in demarcation discussions for the last 15 years. The PM disclosed that China would like to establish diplomatic relations before resolving the border dispute, but this would be sensitive for both sides and would also make India "nervous." Bhutan wants to resolve the issue before expanding relations outside the region. ¶5. (SBU) The current King reiterated the PM's message and advised that Bhutan's small size poses constant challenges; NEW DELHI 00003187 002 OF 005 consequently, it must gradually expand diplomatic relations and balance resources devoted to diplomatic endeavors with those devoted to socio-economic development. The King commented that because of Bhutan's geo-political location between India and China, it values its friendship with the U.S. even more -- "you cannot succeed in this region without friends." Senator Lieberman responded that the U.S. would also benefit from formalizing ties given the countries' shared values. He articulated that while the gains may not be "materialistic, in the long-term, they may be more substantive." ¶6. (C) Senator Lieberman emphasized USG appreciation for Bhutan's support in the UN General Assembly -- in sharp contrast to the voting records of Bhutan's neighbors to the north and south. He specifically thanked the Bhutanese PM for Bhutan's abstentions on the votes on Iran's and Cuba's human rights record. Shangri-la in South Asia -------------- ¶7. (C) Bhutanese officials, particularly the Fourth King Jigme Singye Wangchuck, expressed a keen interest in the Indo-Pak crisis, precipitated by the Mumbai terror attacks. He gave a grim assessment of the situation, noting the timing of the Senators' visit is "extremely important." A keen observer of the region, the Fourth King said that the fragility of India's present UPA government and the looming Lok Sabha elections concern him. The Fourth King was apprehensive of the Indian people's condemnation of their own government, not just the terrorists. He predicted the UPA government will need to "save face" in the wake of the tragedy and, unless the Government of Pakistan reacts positively, India will "definitely" become aggressive. He contended the Secretary's December 3 visit to New Delhi was the only factor delaying India from attacking Pakistan. According to the Fourth King, if India attacks, then the terrorists have succeeded in reversing the improved relations between the long-time regional foes. The extremists' endgame is for Pakistan to divert its troops to the eastern front, and the Fourth King believes this will happen if "something is not done now." ¶8. (C) Regarding the U.S. role in this crisis, the Fourth King opined, "Pakistan has never played straight with the U.S. - they want to get as much as possible while doing as little as possible." He argued that as Pakistan is on the verge of an economic collapse, the U.S. should use its financial leverage by giving Pakistan USD 4-5 billion to prevent it from becoming a failed stated. However, the Fourth King cautioned that the U.S. must give the money very carefully. The Senators agreed with the Fourth King's assessment and noted that Congress would have cut off aid to Pakistan earlier if the U.S. was not "entangled" in Afghanistan. ¶9. (C) The Fourth King asked the Senators how the U.S. would respond if India strikes Pakistan. The Senators noted that threatening to cut off funding to Pakistan only works during a time of rising tensions, not once the first strike has been made. Senator Lieberman stated that if the conflict escalated the U.S. would likely "come in with others" to mediate. He also referenced a recommendation received from Washington think-tanks - namely that the U.S. should convince Pakistan that the U.S. wants a long-term relationship with the country so they "don't need to get into bed with the Taliban." The King supported this proposal, but cautioned that the U.S. needs to "back it up with support, financial or otherwise." The Fourth King doubted whether the promises made by Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari have "follow through" as his government is "extremely weak." Senator McCain added that the U.S. may have to pursue a carrot-and-stick approach - offering the opportunity for a long-term relationship while threatening to cut funding. ¶10. (SBU) Before discussing the U.S. presence in Afghanistan, the Fourth King told the senators that he "personally felt that the actions taken against Iraq were not the wisest" and that the USG "should have focused on Afghanistan." He asked the delegation, "if you stay there (Afghanistan) indefinitely can you bring about real political change?" Yet, he argued NEW DELHI 00003187 003 OF 005 that the U.S. should remain in Afghanistan, but should also ensure that the allied forces create an effective Afghan security force. The Fourth King doubted the Afghans are capable of "changing their ways," considering the animosity bred by the system of tribalism. He fears that if the U.S. "weakens its grip, all hell will break loose." In the Fourth King's opinion, the U.S. "must hold onto Kabul." ¶11. (SBU) PM Thinley struck a more positive note, remarking that the entire region wishes India and Pakistan would resolve their differences as only then could the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) become an effective organization. The PM believes the region has great potential; however, it cannot prosper without mutual trust between its two largest nations. He contended the Indo-Pak relationship continues to influence Indian politics, adding that not many Indian politicians are seriously committed to finding a solution. He highlighted Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh as an exception, praising him for his dedication to resolving the issue. Overall, PM Thinley believes India is making a greater effort than Pakistan to find a solution. He hopes that the Mumbai attacks will shake India and Pakistan out of their "mental rigidity" and generate bold initiatives. The Transition Continues -------------- ¶12. (U) The Fourth King, who abdicated the throne in favor of his son in 2005, provided a brief history of the kingdom's 27-year transition to democracy, prefacing it with his belief that "monarchy was never the best form of government, especially for the security and sovereignty of Bhutan." He noted that "without democracy, we would be in serious trouble with India and China." The Fourth King raised the level of literacy and introduced English as the language of instruction in Bhutan's schools, arguing that increased education and income provide the key to a smooth democratic transition. When the literacy rate reached approximately 60 per cent, the former King decided that the country was "ready for democracy." ¶13. (U) When asked about the timing of his abdication, the Fourth King said that "in order to initiate democracy, there must be total peace and stability within the country." In 2003, the Fourth King led a military campaign to remove Assamese militants from southern Bhutan, and development in Bhutan was at its highest level. He reported that the RGOB conducted three costly mock elections and when the political, economic, and security situations were aligned, Bhutan benefited from the "perfect time for the transition." The Fourth King feared that if he remained on the throne, the political parties would be apprehensive about challenging him; consequently, he wanted the new democracy to have a new monarch, in order to "start fresh, together." ¶14. (U) The current King initially played a smaller role in Bhutan's transition to democracy. After leaving Oxford, his father charged him with taking the draft constitution around the country and discussing it with the people, article by article. The King noted that it was a lesson in constitutional law with "yak herders asking the most profound questions." The King divulged that he was completely surprised when his father abdicated, as he was only given one day's notice before he was to begin his service as the new monarch. ¶15. (U) The King commented that Bhutan's "experiment in democracy is going well" and praised the Bhutanese people for embracing change and taking ownership of their government. The King commended his subjects for being well-informed, "even in the most remote areas of the country." He admitted that a democracy needs certain conditions in order to flourish, including continued peace and stability. The King estimated Bhutan will mature as a democracy over the next 10 to 15 years and will devote resources to strengthening its nascent democratic institutions. "We Got Trashed" -- The Opposition Party -------------- ¶16. (U) Leader of the opposition People,s Democratic Party NEW DELHI 00003187 004 OF 005 (PDP) Tshering Tobgay consoled Senator McCain on the presidential election loss with a traditional Bhutanese saying: "when two bulls fight, one must win and one must lose." Tobgay then summed up his party's March 2008 electoral experience, noting "we got trashed." He admitted that while his party only won two out of 47 seats in the National Assembly, the PDP pledges to ensure that "the fruits of democracy are delivered to the people" (Reftel C). The Senators empathized with the PDP's challenge of holding the ruling party accountable "without creating anxiety among their constituents." Tshering told the delegation that he had learned from the U.S. campaign that "one cannot be too ideological...nor straightjacket oneself to the party." He explained that the ruling and opposition parties have no real ideological differences yet and that the parties were formed according to the former King's instruction. Tshering admitted this unique Bhutanese context made the creation of a true opposition more difficult. ¶17. (U) Tshering said that Bhutan needs a different breed of politician, "one who puts the people first and stops campaigning when the campaign is over." The Senators agreed with this sentiment, with Senator Graham advising "every democracy has one common flaw -- they make promises that they cannot deliver. Don't over-promise." Tshering proffered that a prerequisite of happiness is security; otherwise, people are vulnerable to the whims of politicians. His vision for Bhutan involves creating a legal system in which the Bhutanese may take sanctuary. In parting, Tshering referred to the Senators as "godfathers" and vowed "to make an honest democracy despite the PDP's small numbers." "Soul-Searching" -- WTO and GNH -------------- ¶18. (SBU) PM Thinley reported Bhutan has pursued World Trade Organization (WTO) accession for eight years and the country could become a member in 2009 -- if it desires. The PM realizes the tiny kingdom must have a presence in the global arena, even as an observer; however, it is not confident that the WTO provides the appropriate venue. According to Thinley, Bhutan is engaged in "soul-searching" as it considers if the WTO's principles are in conflict with the values of Gross National Happiness (GNH). (Note: The Fourth King coined the term GNH in the 1970s to describe the guiding philosophy of Bhutan's socio-economic development. GNH is based on the premise that true development takes place when material and spiritual development occur simultaneously to complement and reinforce each other. End Note). PM Thinley said the RGOB fears that WTO membership would force the country to compromise the needs of the Bhutanese people's spiritual development. The PM divulged that at this time the RGOB will likely conclude that WTO and GNH are not compatible. ¶19. (U) The PM described Bhutan's vulnerability to global warming, especially regarding the rapid retreat of its 7,000 glaciers. As the glaciers melt, the excessive water damages fragile lake walls leading to "glacier lakes outburst floods" or (GLOFs). RGOB fears that GLOFs could destroy fertile valleys where most of Bhutan's 680,000 residents live and farm. According to the PM, climate change is closely linked to Bhutan's economic development as hydroelectric power is the largest export. Working with India to improve infrastructure, RGOB hopes to export 10,000 megawatts annually over the next 12 years. However, the RGOB is concerned that after investing billions of dollars into dam construction for hydroelectric projects, the water will disappear with the melted glaciers. Comment -- The Thunder Dragon Inches Closer -------------- ¶20. (SBU) The high-level delegation's visit left a lasting impression on Bhutanese officials who viewed it as a significant step forward in deepening U.S.-Bhutan relations. The entire kingdom was abuzz with talk of the Senators -- Special Envoy of the Dalai Lama Lodi Gyari, who was traveling in Bhutan at the same time, confided that the Fifth King could not stop "gushing" about the delegation. The respect and admiration was reciprocated by the delegation as Senator Graham remarked that the visit to the tiny Himalayan kingdom "recharged our batteries" and reminded the Senators to "put NEW DELHI 00003187 005 OF 005 the country first." While formal diplomatic relations are several years down the road, high-profile visits such as CODEL McCain will raise Bhutan,s visibility in the U.S. and provide for more opportunities for informal exchanges. End Comment. MULFORD