ADVANI SAYS ISI MUST HAVE KNOWN OF MUMBAI

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 003167 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/15/2018 TAGS: PREL PTER PGOV SENV AF PK IN SUBJECT: ADVANI SAYS ISI MUST HAVE KNOWN OF MUMBAI TERRORIST PLOT Classified By: Ambassador David C. Mulford. Reasons: 1.4(B, D). ¶1. (C) Summary: In a meeting with Leader of the Opposition L.K. Advani on December 15, Senator Kerry extended his condolences for the Mumbai terror attacks and said he would deliver a strong message to the Pakistani leadership. Advani demanded immediate action from Pakistan on dismantling the infrastructure of terrorism and on the longstanding Indian list of people involved in terrorist acts that enjoy a safe haven in Pakistan. He believes the Mumbai terrorists could not have secured access to the Pakistan vessel by which they departed Karachi without the ISI's blessing which implies that ISI had prior knowledge of the attacks. He believes the Pakistani Army will do what is necessary on terrorism if it is warned that it would suffer serious consequences otherwise. Advani said he does not think that the ISI is so autonomous that it cannot be controlled by the Pakistani Army leadership. He commented that the Pakistani leadership should recognize that India would never part with Kashmir. Senator Kerry and Advani agreed that the future of the bilateral U.S.-India relationship looks bright. Advani observed he was optimistic about his party's prospects in the national elections due before May 2009. Senator Kerry urged Indian support for a strong outcome at the climate change conference in Copenhagen next year. End Summary. -------------- Tough Message -------------- ¶2. (C) Senator John Kerry extended condolences for the Mumbai tragedy, noting that Americans are distressed at what happened and share the anger and pain of India. He said he will deliver a very strong message when he meets President Zardari, NSA Durrani, General Kayani and General Pasha in Islamabad on December 15-16. In his view, this is a historic moment for Pakistan which is now faced with some fundamental decisions on which way it wants to go. -------------- Pakistan Government Involvement -------------- ¶3. (C) Responding to Advani's query on the involvement of Pakistani government agencies in the Mumbai attacks, Senator Kerry observed that he did not have information beyond what is clear at this point: the terrorists were Pakistanis; they were trained in Pakistan by the Lashkar-e-Taiba (LET); and the LET was a creation of the ISI. Advani replied that the terrorists could not secured access to the Al-Husseini, the vessel by which they departed Karachi for Mumbai, without ISI blessings which implies that the ISI knew about their onward plan. He added that the civilian government of President Zardari itself -- without Pakistani Army assistance -- could easily ascertain whether there was any involvement of the ISI or other agencies in making possible the terrorists' access to the Al-Husseini. -------------- Reining in the ISI -------------- ¶4. (C) In response to Senator Kerry's query on the way forward, Advani said that the Pakistani Army would do what is necessary to stop terrorism against India if "advice were given to the Pakistani Army that there would be consequences if it did not." He pointed to two specific actions the Pakistani government could take immediately to help defuse the crisis. In his view the Pakistani government must first completely dismantle the infrastructure of terrorism - training, financing, planning, cross-border infiltration - to the satisfaction of India and the international community. This was pledged by Pakistan in the 2004 joint declaration signed by Prime Minister Vajpayee and then-President NEW DELHI 00003167 002 OF 003 Musharraf but Pakistan did not follow through on its commitment, he observed. Secondly, Advani believes Pakistan must respond on the longstanding Indian demand for action on a list of people involved in terrorist acts in India and enjoying sanctuary in Pakistan. Senator Kerry said he understood Indian skepticism when little came of Pakistani assurances that followed the 2001 attack on Parliament. ¶5. (C) When asked whether he thinks it is possible for the Pakistani Army to rein in the ISI, Advani replied that he believes the Pakistan Army could reform the ISI if it had the will to do so. He does not consider the ISI to be "so autonomous" as to be beyond the control of the army leadership. Senator Kerry said the Pakistani leadership needs to realize that it is in the interest of Pakistan (and the U.S. and India as well) for Pakistan to reform the ISI. -------------- Homegrown Terrorists -------------- ¶6. (C) Advani observed that there was a time when all terrorist activity in India was conducted by "cross-border" elements. He acknowledged that in recent years, Pakistan radicals have managed to create some extremists groups within the Indian Muslim community and domestic groups such as the Students' Islamic Movement of India are willing to engage in terrorists acts in India. In Advani's view, however, these domestic groups are not sustainable without training, funding, equipment, arms, explosives and other support from Pakistan. Senator Kerry observed that U.K. Prime Minster Brown acknowledged that radical Islamists in that country also had strong ties to and support from Pakistan. -------------- Jammu and Kashmir -------------- ¶7. (C) On Kashmir, Advani said that after 60 years of control India would never "yield" any territory to Pakistan. Senator Kerry responded that the U.S. has no such illusions. Advani observed that a lot of the terrorism directed against India has been justified in the "name of Kashmir." In fact, in his view, Kashmir became a problem only after an act of aggression against it in 1948. -------------- Extremist Blowback -------------- ¶8. (C) Noting that the Taliban appears to be growing in strength and size along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border, Senator Kerry asked for suggestions on how the problem should be addressed. Advani did not offer any solutions but discussed the causes of the growing problem. In his view, there was a "measure of stability" under President Musharraf, but the emergence of competing centers of power in Pakistan today provides space for radical elements to flourish. He also observed that when a country uses terror as a matter of state policy, the terror is bound to sooner or later to take aim at that country. He believes this is what is happening in Pakistan. -------------- Bilateral Relations Will Grow Stronger -------------- ¶9. (C) Senator Kerry and L.K. Advani agreed that as the world's two biggest democracies, the U.S. and India must always remain close. Senator Kerry gave credit to the BJP for being the catalyst for the new bilateral relationship. Advani replied that the BJP had always rejected the soviet model of governance and economic management. Once the Indian NEW DELHI 00003167 003 OF 003 economy had "emancipated itself from this yoke" in the 1990s, it was only natural that the U.S. and India would be drawn together as cold war barriers fell. Senator Kerry said he hoped India will play a constructive role in the coming climate change discussions in Copenhagen. Advani observed that while India had no Green Party yet, civil society and government have begun to pay more attention to this important issue. -------------- Political Season -------------- ¶10. (C) Advani said it is difficult to predict elections in India but was optimistic about the prospects of his Bharatiya Janata Party and its National Democratic Alliance coalition in the national elections, due before May 2009. He felt that the current United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government had "not much to show" after its five years in office. He also believes that the UPA government failed because it was beset with a fundamental contradiction in that components of the UPA government held diametrically opposite core political views. Advani commented that the main issue of the campaign will be the mismanagement of the economy by the UPA government. The BJP will offer a economic program that aims to insulate India from the global financial crisis and reduce inflation. -------------- Bhutto on Why Democracy Failed in Pakistan -------------- ¶11. (C) Advani recounted a conversation he had with former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto when she last visited Delhi during her exile. On being asked why democracy had taken strong root in India and had been so elusive in Pakistan, Bhutto pointed to two factors: an apolitical military in India; and constitutionally mandated independence of the Indian Election Commission. He added that a visiting Pakistani senator had told him the previous day that a third factor is needed to explain the differing experiences with democracy: the feudal character of the Pakistan's elite which contrasted with a more modern outlook of India's elite. ¶12. (U) Codel Kerry did not have an opportunity to clear this message. MULFORD