INDIAN NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISER TELLS SENATOR

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 003166 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/15/2028 TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER MARR MOPS PK IN SUBJECT: INDIAN NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISER TELLS SENATOR KERRY INDIA WANTS TO BE ASSURED PAKISTANI GOVERNMENT IS TAKING ACTION TO PREVENT FURTHER TERROR ATTACKS Classified By: AMB David C. Mulford for Reasons 1.4 (B, D) ¶1. (C) Summary. In a December 14 meeting with Indian National Security Adviser MK Narayanan, Senator John Kerry: -- urged Narayanan to consider which Pakistani actions could be considered as sincere confidence building measures in responding to the Mumbai terrorist attacks, cautioning against building expectations for a response that may not be forthcoming; -- indicated that he would be taking a blunt message to President Zardari and Army Chief Kayani that Pakistan needed to demonstrate that it was taking concrete actions to dismantle terrorist infrastructure in Pakistan; -- described a pending bill which would require Pakistan to demonstrate progress in fighting the war on terror in order to qualify for certain types of U.S. aid; and -- offered to remain in contact with Narayanan as both the U.S. and India have shared interests in seeing results in the investigation of the Mumbai attacks. Narayanan: -- believed that in order to demonstrate it is sincerely cooperating in the response to the terror attacks, Pakistan needed to prevent another attack from being launched from its territory; -- assured Senator Kerry that India had no intention of taking military action or going to war; -- urged the international community to press Pakistan to accept whatever evidence is uncovered in investigations; -- promised to share evidence with the U.S.; -- speculated that ISI was likely involved in the Mumbai attacks, even if it was a rogue element, while saying it was unlikely that ISI could be brought completely under civilian control in the near term; -- described the terrorists interest in upsetting the Kashmir peace process, which he noted was close to resolution in 2007 but derailed by the downfall of President Musharraf and the terror attacks in Mumbai and on the Indian embassy in Kabul; and -- inquired as to whether extradition of Pakistani terrorists to the U.S. might be a possibility. End Summary. -------------- Narayanan: Pakistan needs to prevent another attack -------------- ¶2. (C) Senator Kerry, accompanied by Ambassador, called on NSA Narayanan on December 15 to discuss India-Pakistan relations in the wake of the November 16 Mumbai terror attacks and review possibilities for U.S. cooperation. The Senator advised Narayanan that he would be meeting with Pakistani Prime Minister Zardari later in the day, and with Chief of Army Staff Kayani the next day, and asked Narayanan what steps could the Pakistanis take which could empower the Indian government to say that Pakistan was taking sufficient action. The Senator noted that house arrests and the temporary dismantlement of terrorist camps were unsatisfactory, and also asked Narayanan what metrics the U.S. should be watching to judge the sincerity of the Pakistani response. ¶3. (S) Narayanan replied that there was no one concrete action which anyone could point to which could then be called an adequate response, however, he said one strong confidence building measure would be for India to be assured that Pakistan would not allow another large scale terror attack to be launched from its territory. He explained that Mumbai was the second major attack on India in 2008 -- with the bombing of the Indian embassy in Kabul being first -- and intelligence had indicated that Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) had been planning up to 20 attacks on India, so there is a great deal of concern among Indian officials now about what might be the next target. Narayanan praised the coordination that has taken place between the U.S. and India since the Mumbai attacks, saying he believed it represented a transformation in the relationship and adding he was looking forward to the upcoming visit of Director of National Intelligence NEW DELHI 00003166 002 OF 003 McConnell, which Narayanan expected to provide as much intelligence as possible about the attacks. The international community needs to press Pakistan to demonstrate it is taking action to prevent further terror strikes on India, Narayanan stated, however Pakistan's actions must be a sincere effort and "not that we did action 'A' and then action 'B.' Pakistan needs to address how to prevent the next one. If they can't, it becomes a problem." -------------- No Indian intention to provoke an escalation -------------- ¶4. (C) Pakistan also needed to realize that India has no intention of dismantling the Pakistani state, Narayanan continued, pointing out that India would likely be the country most adversely affected by a collapse of the Pakistani government. Narayanan dismissed Pakistan's claims on December 14 that Indian fighter planes had violated Pakistani airspace reflected a paranoia, arguing "This would be the worst time to abet the paranoia of the Pakistanis." (Note: Later in the meeting the Ambassador pressed Narayanan to elaborate on the airspace violation reports. Narayanan said he has asked his staff to check into the allegations, but stated that "our orders are very clear that (pilots) should keep their distance (from the border). In fact, he stressed, India is currently consciously working to avoid doing anything which could cause a provocation by Pakistan, or take the attention of the international community away from the focus on Pakistan's role in taking action against the terrorists. End Note.) -------------- Evidence to be shared with U.S., initial report to be completed in 2-3 months -------------- ¶5. (C) Senator Kerry agreed India needed to err on the side of caution in planning for the possibility of future attacks, but cautioned against setting up as a first metric measures that would be impossible for Pakistan to achieve. He said the danger existed that when Pakistani officials did take action, there would be pushback from the terrorists which could bring more violence. He noted that Pakistan will need to cooperate with the United States, too, to allow access to detainees and by sharing evidence gained during investigations. ¶6. (S) Narayanan opined that the international community will need to be involved in pressing the Pakistanis to respond to the evidence which is uncovered in the investigation. The nature of the Mumbai attacks, where commandos invaded a major metropolitan area and targeted premeditated sites, could be repeated anywhere, Narayanan maintained, so it is in everyone's interest to prevent a repeat or copycat attacks. Narayanan said he expected the initial investigation to be completed within two-to-three months, which India will use to file a charge sheet in court and which it will share in a more public sense as the case against the terrorists, while the actual evidence that will be used in court will take much longer to finalize. (Later Narayanan said he expected the government to be able to share initial findings with DNI McConnell "as a friend" as early as December 23.) He noted the similarities in India and Pakistan's legal systems and assured Senator Kerry that India had no intention of casting a wide-netted manhunt, but would only seek to convict those involved, asserting that Pakistan did not need to fear baseless accusations. He reiterated that it was not in India's interest to go to war with Pakistan over this. -------------- Rogue ISI involvement likely; Kashmir peace process was close to resolution then derailed -------------- ¶7. (C) To the question of whether the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) agency was involved or not, Narayanan said that he believes ISI was involved, although it could have been by rogue ISI agents without the knowledge of ISI or Army leadership's knowledge. Narayanan said he was only speculating, but he believed ISI and the Pakistani Army stood to gain from derailing improved relations with India, as their rationale for existence had been predicated on "the bogey of India." Narayanan intimated that under President NEW DELHI 00003166 003 OF 003 Musharraf, India and Pakistan had come extremely close to resolving the Kashmir dispute, to the point where it was "mostly about how to sell it" to their respective publics. While only 3-4 Indians were aware of how close the two countries had come to a resolution, word got to Pakistani Army and ISI, he suggested, who were opposed to the concept. Narayanan stated that he had begun to talk to Prime Minister Singh in 2007 about how the Indian government would talk about the deal that was being reached. He believed Benazir Bhutto was aware of the proposed resolution, and intended to continue with it, and that her widower husband, President Zardari, was prepared to go down the same road. "We were at a moment in history where we could have had it resolved," Narayanan told the Senator. However President Musharraf's political problems suspended progress, and the bombing of the Indian embassy in Kabul -- which Narayanan believed was done by "vested interests" and designed to start a confrontation between India and Pakistan -- brought the possibility to a halt. Narayanan added that U.S.-India relations play into the mix of reasons why some in the Pakistani establishment remain against stable India-Pakistan relations, as Pakistan as becoming the forgotten partner while India emerges as a global economic power. ¶8. (S) Senator Kerry asked if Narayanan believed the General Kayani and the Pakistani Army would be sincere in their efforts to combat the terrorists at this time. Narayanan felt that they would not respond to pressure from India, and that India's focus now is on building the necessary evidence to get those responsible convicted in a court of law. External Affairs Mukherjee has told Foreign Minister Qureshi that India will provide evidence once it is prepared, Narayanan said, but it does not expect Pakistan to respond especially favorably once it is presented with India's case. "It's difficult for the country being accused to accept the evidence from the accuser," he stated, adding "the U.S. and UK can help since they provided much of it. You might be able to persuade Pakistan unlike how we can." -------------- A threat beyond India -------------- ¶9. (C) Narayanan urged Senator Kerry to use his trip to Pakistan to "persuade them that this is a dangers game," pointing out that the scale of terrorist attacks has increased with Mumbai, and that other terrorists who were watching have likely become more confident. If the Mumbai attacks were carried out by non-state actors, then why wouldn't the Pakistani government move immediately against them, he asked. In response to the Senator's question as to whether General Kayani could bring ISI firmly under the Army's control, Narayanan, said he believed the problem was too big for any one Chief of Army Staff to resolve. "Very few people can control such shadowy organizations where even the leadership of the organization is not fully aware of what's going on," he said, noting that former COAS President Musharraf had tried to control ISI but failed. Still, Narayanan maintained, "you must start sometime" in attempting to bring ISI under civilian control. -------------- Extradition to the U.S. a possibility? -------------- ¶10. (C) Senator Kerry told Narayanan he would deliver a blunt and direct message to President Zardari and General Kayani of the need to demonstrate that concrete actions are being taken, offering to personally contact Narayanan again. He concluded by noting that the Senate would soon be deliberating over a bill that would tie aid to Pakistan's cooperation in the war on terror. Narayanan welcomed the bill, and wondered if it would be possible for accused terrorists to be extradited to the U.S. instead of India. Senator Kerry noted legal and other difficulties, but said the idea may be worth exploring. ¶11. (SBU) Senator Kerry's staff has not cleared this message. MULFORD