ADVANI TO LEAD NDA COALITION IN NEXT ELECTION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 000316 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS DEPT FOR SCA E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/30/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR PHUM IN SUBJECT: ADVANI TO LEAD NDA COALITION IN NEXT ELECTION REF: A. 07 MUMBAI 722 ¶B. 07 NEW DELHI 5278 Classified By: PolCouns Ted Osius For Reasons 1.4 (B,D) ¶1. (C) Summary: In another signal that the political parties are getting ready for national elections, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) unanimously picked L.K. Advani of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to lead the alliance into the next parliamentary poll. The NDA also provided a preview of the issues it will highlight during the campaign: weak leadership in the ruling United Progressive Alliance (UPA); UPA as an opportunistic and unprincipled alliance; Modi's successful gambit of running against the UPA's "Delhi Sultanate;" and good governance in NDA-ruled states contrasted with non-performance in UPA-ruled states. Conspicuous by its absence was any mention of the Hindutva basket of issues revolving around Hindu nationalism, security, sovereignty and terrorism. The BJP recognizes that to secure a victory the NDA needs to attract allies who are uncomfortable with the strident Hindutva message. Advani's ready acceptance by the NDA allies was in some ways inevitable because there is no other NDA leader who can match his national and international name recognition and stature. Only Narendra Modi comes close, another reason the NDA allies so quickly threw their support behind Advani. The past six months have not been good for the UPA as it staggers into 2008 to face a united and rejuvenated BJP/NDA combine, fresh from its victories in Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh and benefiting from voter fatigue with UPA indecision. End Summary. NDA Unites Behind Advani -------------- ¶2. (U) The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) will contest the next parliamentary election with the Bharatiya Janata Party's (BJP) Lal Krishna Advani as its candidate for prime minister. The decision to go into the polls under the leadership of the former Deputy Prime Minister and current Leader of the Opposition was taken at a January 22 meeting of leaders of all the NDA allies (except the small Trinamool Congress Party) and the top BJP brass from Delhi and the states. The NDA choice comes a month after the BJP itself had picked Advani to lead the party in the upcoming national elections (Ref B). The NDA's smooth selection of Advani is yet another signal that preparations for national elections are picking up speed and the BJP and NDA are getting their house in order and readying for battle. Weak UPA Leadership -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Besides picking Advani, the NDA allies also agreed to fight the election on a common platform -- "National Agenda on Governance" -- which would be drafted soon by a committee. Although the platform is yet to be finalized, participants in the NDA meeting provided some hints about the issues the campaign will seek to highlight. Chief among them is the charge of "weak leadership" in the ruling United Progressive Alliance (UPA). The BJP has used this theme repeatedly since October 2007 when Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Congress Party President Sonia Gandhi were forced by the Left Parties and the UPA allies to back-pedal on their commitment to conclude the US-India civil nuclear deal in a timely manner. Accommodation and compromises between the UPA partners -- especially kowtowing to the Left Parties -- will be portrayed as unprincipled deals to cling to power. The Opportunistic UPA -------------- ¶4. (SBU) A second theme the NDA will deploy is to paint the UPA as an "opportunistic" alliance fraught with internal contradictions, a characterization the NDA has frequently used since the Left Parties threatened to bring the UPA government down over the US-India civil nuclear deal. The NDA will attempt to contrast this UPA marriage of convenience with its own coalition, which it will argue has been built over long years of trust and confidence and did not feature NEW DELHI 00000316 002 OF 003 the bickering and indecision of the UPA. Run Against Delhi Sultanate -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Taking a leaf out of Narendra Modi's game plan for his thumping win over the Congress Party in Gujarat (Ref A), the NDA will also run against the pro-Muslim "Delhi Sultanate," which they will try to depict as uncaring, arrogant and vindictive, intent on trampling the aspirations of the states and, implicitly, putting Hindus at a disadvantage. At its January 22 meeting, the NDA decided to prepare a charge-sheet that lists the discriminations meted out to NDA-led states by the UPA government. Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar complained about lack of UPA assistance for flood relief last summer, while Chhattisgarh Chief Minister Raman Singh accused the UPA of withholding rice allocations for his state. The Governance Mantra -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Tearing another page out of Modi's playbook, the NDA will run on the promise of strong governance, pointing to its own performance record in the NDA-ruled states. The NDA asked its chief ministers to prepare a list of accomplishments, which would be contrasted with government non-performance in UPA-led states. One of the lessons learned for the Indian political system from Modi's sweeping win in Gujarat was that good governance matters to voters. While observers have offered varying explanations of Modi's unprecedented win, all have agreed that good governance was one of the factors that contributed to it. Vajpayee, Fernandes Handled With Care -------------- ¶7. (C) The NDA took care to ensure that Advani's elevation was not seen as a sign of disrespect to former Prime Minister A.B. Vajpayee, who remains NDA chairman and will serve the alliance as a "mentor and guide" despite his age and infirmity. The NDA spokesperson noted that the alliance "would continue to seek the wise, visionary and aspiring guidance of its chairman." Later, the NDA chief ministers called on Vajpayee at his residence. The NDA displayed similar sensitivity towards George Fernandes, who was retained as NDA convenor despite his ill-health and the taint of corruption. Comment: Hindutva Under the Rug -------------- ¶8. (C) Notably absent from the NDA discussion were the traditional flag-waving, Congress-bating themes of the Sangh Parivar: pandering to minorities, appeasement of vote banks, softness on terror, special status for Kashmir, Ram Sethu and Babri Masjid. The BJP no doubt recognizes that these issues do not reap votes like they used to and the NDA needs a moderate and mainstream platform in order to retain allies such as Nitish Kumar of Bihar and Naveen Patnaik of Orissa. It also hopes such restraint will let it reach out to potential allies like Chandrababu Naidu of Andhra Pradesh, Jayalalithaa of Tamil Nadu and Om Prakash Chautala of Haryana. If the BJP deploys the Hindutva basket of issues during the polls, it will only be in selected states and regions. Such issues are unlikely to find their way into the "National Agenda for Governance," the soon-to-be-drafted common platform of the NDA. Comment: Advani, a Natural Choice in 2008 -------------- ¶8. (C) The NDA meeting was an impressive show of unity behind Advani. Nine chief ministers of NDA-ruled states (including Gujarat's Narendra Modi) and the leaders of NDA allies Shrimoni Akali Dal, Janata Dal (United),Shiv Sena, and the Biju Janata Dal were joined by the top BJP leadership from Delhi and the states. Advani did not enjoy such acceptance in 1998-1999 when the NDA alliance was first formed. At that time, his reputation as the uncompromising NEW DELHI 00000316 003 OF 003 Hindutva 'Iron Man' made the NDA allies uncomfortable. That Advani has been able to so readily line up the endorsement of the NDA allies in 2008 reflects the considerable effort he has made during the last three years in developing relationships with the BJP's NDA partners. Second, despite his past reputation as a Hindutva chauvinist, his performance when in power in 1999-2004 was mainstream moderate. He has refrained from polarizing rhetoric and confrontational proposals, positioning himself among the more moderate of the BJP politicos. Third, the NDA allies realize that there is no other leader in the opposition stables who can match Advani's national and international name recognition and stature. The only one who comes close is Narendra Modi, another reason the NDA allies so quickly threw their support behind Advani. Comment: Congress/UPA Staggers on the Ropes -------------- ¶9. (C) The past six months have not been good for the UPA alliance. Bitter squabbling between the Congress Party and the Left Party allies over the U.S.-India civil nuclear agreement has left the Congress and its UQpartners weakened. The Congress Party's willingness to turn a blind eye toward the Communist Party Marxist (CPM) role in the pogrom at Nandigram has damaged both the parties. The manner in which the UPA handled the Taslima Nasreen controversy has displeased both Nasreen's supporters and her detractors. The UPA was bruised in some sections of the country by the Ram Sethu affair in which the GOI appeared to maladroitly question Hindu mythology. The Congress Party was soundly trounced by the BJP in state assembly elections in Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh. With this backdrop, the battered Congress Party staggers into 2008 to face a united and rejuvenated BJP/NDA combine. ¶10. (C) If the Congress Party hopes to recover from this crippled state and hold its own in a series of important state and parliamentary elections in the coming months, it needs to unveil some bold and visionary initiative. A determined bid to press forward with the US-India civil nuclear agreement would fit the bill. It would enjoy the support of the public, which favors closer US-India ties. It would show that the Congress Party is ready to stand up to the bullying Communists. It would demonstrate courage in its willingness to take risks for what it believes is in the country's interests. We fear, however, that the Congress Party will settle for some cosmetic and inconsequential tinkering like a minor cabinet reshuffle, organizational changes within the party or turning up the flow of populist benefits programs. Senior officials tell us that a Cabinet reshuffle is likely during the week of February 4, and we will watch to see whether those who favor appeasing the Left rise or fall. The NDA, meanwhile, is sharpening its knives. MULFORD