CONGRESS BRACES FOR STORMY POST-MUMBAI PARLIAMENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 003124

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/11/2018
TAGS: PGOV PTER PREL PINR KDEM IN
SUBJECT: CONGRESS BRACES FOR STORMY POST-MUMBAI PARLIAMENT
SESSION

REF: A. NEW DELHI 3097

B. NEW DELHI 3025

C. NEW DELHI 2745

Classified By: Political Counselor Ted Osius for Reasons 1.4 (B and D)


1. (C) Summary: The fallout from Mumbai terror attacks
will dominate debate in the Indian Parliament, which
reconvened on December 10. The political opposition will
seek to lay the blame squarely on the Congress-led United
Progressive Alliance (UPA) and accuse it of being soft on
terrorism. The UPA will play aggressive defense to keep
further political damage at bay. The debate will feature
newly appointed Home Minister P. Chidambaram, who will
present a detailed internal security "road map" to
Parliament. The GOI will announce other counterterrorism
initiatives. And it will counterattack, pointing to
terrorist attacks during the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led
government's rule in 1999-2004. While a small possibility
certainly exists that the UPA government will fall in the
emotionally charged post-Mumbai attacks environment, we
expect it to pull through because it still has the numbers in
Parliament. Its solid performance in recent state elections
(Ref. A) gives the Congress Party some breathing room to fend
off the opposition parties. End Summary.

Opposition Sharpening Knives
---


2. (SBU) Amid slowing Economic forecasts and a profound
political fall-out from the Mumbai terror attacks, India's
Parliament reconvened on December 10 and got down to real
business on December 11. The ruling UPA government is
preparing for a fierce onslaught from the opposition parties
for its failure to prevent the Mumbai carnage. The BJP and
the Communist parties have already threatened to "come down
hard" on the UPA. They will be joined by other opposition
parties when they point to a string of terrorist attacks over
the last two years - 11 in 2008 alone -- to reinforce their
charge that the UPA is soft on terrorism. They will demand
that the UPA accept moral responsibility for the Mumbai
tragedy and denounce the government for not firing Home
Minister Shivraj Patil earlier even as he repeatedly proved
he was not up to the job. BJP spokesperson Mukhtar Abbas
Naqvi said the party would hold the UPA government
accountable for "the security of the nation" and would seek a
detailed report from the government on steps it has taken to
deal with terrorism.

UPA Preparing Defense
---


3. (SBU) The UPA will have to play strong defense to limit
the political damage. It will showcase its newly appointed
Home Minister, P. Chidambaram, who is expected to present a
detailed internal security "road map" to Parliament. It will
announce a series of steps to strengthen the country's
capacity to combat terror: strengthening of internal security
laws to allow agencies to go after terrorists more
aggressively; creation of a new central security agency to
combat terrorism cases; infusion of additional resources for
India security agencies; and some changes in personnel at the
security agencies. The UPA is also likely to counterattack,
citing the BJP's culpability for not preventing the 2001
attack on Parliament and for the deal it struck with
terrorist during the IC-814 hijacking.


4. (SBU) The BJP has agreed to support the federal agency
"in principle," but has demanded more strict anti-terror laws
similar to the Prevention of Terrorism Act (POTA) that was
enacted in 2001 by the former BJP-led central government, and
subsequently repealed. POTA had been a point of contention
for many Congress members and UPA allies, as many perceived
that POTA unfairly targeted the Muslim community. Repeal of
POTA was one of the first acts of the UPA government when it

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came into power in 2004.

No No-Confidence
---


5. (SBU) In the emotionally charged post-Mumbai attacks
environment, the opposition parties will demand that the UPA
government resign. They are threatening to call a
no-confidence motion even though they do not have the votes.
In any event, the UPA argues that Indian parliamentary rules
do not allow a no-confidence motion during this sitting of
Parliament. The UPA contends that this session is merely a
continuation of July and October sessions. In its view,
there can be only one no-confidence motion during a
parliamentary session and this session has already had one in
July. If the opposition insists on trying to go forward with
a no-confidence motion, the matter will be ruled on by
Speaker of the Lok Sabha Somnath Chatterjee, who is likely to
effectively kill it by treating it as a breach of privilege
matter which normally takes 6-12 months to decide.

Keeping the Global Economic Crisis at Bay
---


6. (SBU) Amid a global financial crisis and liquidity
shortage in the domestic market, economic issues will also
find some visibility in the parliamentary debate. With signs
that the economy was weakening, the Prime Minister announced
an economic stimulus package on December 7 that would
increase government spending and ease the tax burden in some
sectors of the economy. A top communist official said that
the UPA's stimulus program "virtually ignores" farmers and
the rural poor. Most economists already consider the current
budget as a stimulus program aimed at the rural poor through
the farm debt waiver program and the national rural
employment guarantee program. According to political
observers, the UPA would like to push through several
economic reforms, such as the Bank Regulation Bill and
amendments to the Forward Contracts Bill.

COMMENT: Other Parliamentary Agenda Falls by the Wayside
---


7. (SBU) The parliamentary session is expected to be
consumed by debate about the Mumbai terror attacks - the
finger-pointing, the recriminations, and the political
posturing ahead of the national elections. This is going to
leave little room for the UPA to move forward with any
measure of a substantive legislative agenda, including
economic reforms measures it had hoped to pass.

COMMENT: GOI Likely to Muddle Through
---


8. (C) The parliamentary session will be stormy. While the
possibility exists that the session will be short with the
UPA deciding to adjourn quickly to avoid the pounding, we
think this is unlikely because there would be a political
cost to being perceived as evading parliamentary debate.
There is an outside chance the UPA government will collapse
from the fallout of the Mumbai attacks. While the GOI may
technically be safe from a no-confidence motion due to
parliamentary procedure, it will find it hard to survive if
its biggest allies -- Lalu Prasad Yadav's Rashtriya Janata
Dal, Tamil Nadu's Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam or Sharad Pawar's
Nationalist Congress Party -- begin to flee what they think
is a sinking ship. If they leave the UPA government -- and
we hasten to add that there is no indication yet that any of
them are considering it -- then the UPA would be reduced to a
significant minority and there will be tremendous pressure on
President Patil to dismiss the government, dissolve
parliament and call a new parliamentary election. On balance
we think the GOI will stagger through this session,
especially since it now has a bit of breathing room due to
its solid performance in the state elections (Ref. A). End

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Comment.

MULFORD