INDIAN TSUNAMI EARLY WARNING SYSTEM TECHNICALLY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 003104 SENSITIVE SIPDIS STATE FOR OES/PCI, OES/STC, OES/SAT, OES/EGC, AND SCA/INS STATE FOR STAS STATE FOR NSF PHILLIP TAYLOR, LARRY WEBER, VANESSA RICHARDSON STATE FOR USGS DAVID APPLEGATE, RICHARD CALNAN, WILLIAM LEITH E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: KGLB KICR KSCA TPHY EFIS EIND SENV TSPL TNGD IN SUBJECT: INDIAN TSUNAMI EARLY WARNING SYSTEM TECHNICALLY PROFICIENT, PROCEDURALLY COMPLEX REF: UNESCOPARI 07301453 NEW DELHI 00003104 001.2 OF 003 ¶1. SUMMARY: (SBU) In October 2008, SCIOFF and SCIFSN toured the Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES)-affiliated National Institute of Ocean Technology (NIOT) facilities in Chennai and the Indian National Center for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS) in Hyderabad, and spoke with scientific staff about ocean research and monitoring capabilities. NIOT conducts research and development activities and collects data, while INCOIS focuses on the compilation, analysis and dissemination of ocean information, including tsunami warning. India's Tsunami Early Warning Center is poised to rapidly identify and assess potential tsunamis. Actually warning the public and international community could prove problematic, however, as the process requires decisions and actions by both central and state government offices, and the pledged early-warning website isn't online yet. On a positive note, NIOT and INCOIS data helps fishermen, coral reef watchers, and shipping companies make informed decisions on where to focus their efforts. END SUMMARY. IMPRESSIVE REGIONAL TSUNAMI WARNING NETWORK, BUT HOW DO THEY COMMUNICATE? ¶2. (U) India's Tsunami early warning center officially came online at INCOIS on 15 October, 2007 and has been operating continuously since. Using data from numerous international sources, the center conducts real time monitoring of seismic activity around the world. When an ocean-centered earthquake is detected, INCOIS' 24x7 operations center retrieves from their databases a scenario that matches the quake's location and magnitude to estimate likely tsunami activity. (NOTE: INCOIS stores numerical models of earthquakes of several magnitudes along the two most likely fault lines, the Andaman-Sumatra Trench in the Bay of Bengal and the Makra Coast in the Arabian Sea, to speed up the process of tsunami forecasting. These models use too much c/mputing power to be effectively run in real time, though INCOIS' system allows operators to update values using actual data from an event. END NOTE.) ¶3. (SBU) Based on this model and the initial data, and within 20 minutes of an event, INCOIS provides the Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) and the MoES a preliminary assessment of a local, regional or ocean-wide tsunami by issuing an "All Clear", "Watch", "Alert" or "Warning" message. An updated message, sent within 30 minutes of the event, includes tsunami travel times, run-up heights, and directivity maps based on data continuously collected from tsunami buoys, bottom pressure sensors, and tidal gauges. According to T. Srinivasa Kumar, scientist in charge of the National Tsunami Warning Centre, the MHA and MoES then decide whether and how to warn impacted Indian states, any international partners through "the appropriate bilateral or multilateral treaties", and the general public. ¶4. (SBU) Kumar indicated that a Warning or Alert for a tsunami with less than a 60 minute travel time also would be issued directly to the public, likely through the same alert system used for cyclones. However, he said that INCOIS would not pass the information directly and he was unsure how the message would actually be provided to the appropriate alert systems. He further said that the general public could sign up on the web to receive tsunami alert notifications via e-mail or text message. However, SCIOFF was unable to track down the described link and noted that the webpage in INCOIS' briefing that contained tsunami-related information is not available on their website, and may be an as-of-yet-unpublished webpage or an internal-only link. ¶5. (U) SCIOFF noted that the tsunami early warning center contained modern computer and display equipment, video-teleconference and phone connections reported to be linked directly to MHA and MoES, and back-up servers and generators to ensure continued operations. NEW DELHI 00003104 002.2 OF 003 During the briefing that took place in the warning center, SCIOFF observed the system registering several land-based seismic events around the world in what looked like real-time. Center staff appeared to be knowledgeable about both the systems and science, they easily answered questions and explained their tsunami event analysis processes. ¶6. (U) INCOIS has generated detailed inundation maps for various tsunami heights to identify areas most likely to be effected, and made them available to central and state government officials for emergency and long-term planning, according to Kumar. Calculations for these maps take into account both natural land features and building structures. ¶7. (U) NIOT is responsible for deployment and management of the Indian tsunami warning buoys, and plans to set up a complement of 12 buoys around the two key fault lines. It is unclear how successfully they will be in this endeavor in the short term. Of the six deployed buoys, the control centers in NIOT showed only one to be operational while a week later INCOIS showed three to be operational. NIOT Project Director Dr. V. Rajendran and the buoy program staff said that buoys are often vandalized or damaged, likely by fishermen whose nets tend to be ripped by the buoys or by people looking to steal the solar panels. These buoys eventually wash up on the beach and in one case, Dr. Rajendran indicated that all of the instrumentation and communication equipment had been entirely removed. NIOT staff told SCIOFF that they hoped their recently-begun campaign to educate fishermen on the importance to public safety of maintaining the buoys would cut down on the need to replace the expensive systems, and speed up the deployment process. INCOIS' OTHER OCEAN INFORMATION PUT TO GOOD USE ¶8. (U) INCOIS conducts modeling to establish ocean forecasts which are published on their website and used in several applications, such as shipping route determination, oil spill monitoring, and potential fishing zone identification. In one example, INCOIS analysts use satellite imagery to identify areas fish are likely to be found based on water temperature, chlorophyll concentrations, and ocean current modeling. Three times a week during fishing season, the coordinates and maps are circulated to fisherman by fax, e-mail, internet, radio, and information kiosks and electric display boards at ports. INCOIS staff provided anecdotal information that those fishermen who use the information have a 30-70% reduction in search time, resulting in lower operating expenses and a greater net profit. They further claimed that the service does not promote over-fishing, because it is aimed at smaller fishermen who spend the extra time with their families rather than going on more fishing trips. ¶9. (U) INCOIS monitors coral reef health at four locations along the Indian coasts via satellite, and validates findings using investigational surveys. They have used historical satellite imagery to follow the progression of reef health in an effort to focus conservations efforts, and have made the data and analyses available on their web site. ¶10. (U) INCOIS is also attempting to combine information collected from India's ocean monitoring programs with data obtained from other international sources to create a one-stop, web-accessible database that includes information, dating back to the 1990's, on sea level, temperature, salinity, chemical composition, biological composition, and meteorological conditions. Kumar indicated that not all available datasets had been incorporated yet, as accurate mapping of the disparate data sources into a single database file was taking longer than expected. (NOTE: INCOIS scientists told SCIOFF that their data had some gaps as they were required to shut down sensors during Indian naval exercises and operations. END NOTE.) NEW DELHI 00003104 003.2 OF 003 NIOT EXPERIMENTS MOVING FORWARD ¶11. (U) NIOT pursues research and development, but not production, for the MoES, the Indian Navy, the Department of Science and Technology and industrial clients, according to Dr. Rajendran. Projects highlighted by NIOT staff during the tour include: -- An unmanned deep-sea mining vehicle that completed its first successful deep-water test in October 2008. Additional adjustments would be made by NIOT engineers before its next trial run later this year. (NOTE: It was not clear to SCIOFF whether this vehicle was an extension of the remotely-operable vehicle developed jointly, beginning in 2006, by NIOT and the Experimental Design Bureau of Oceanological Engineering of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow. END NOTE.) -- Establishment and successful operation of a low temperature thermal desalination plant at Kavaratti Island with a capacity of 100,000 liters per day. The design will go into production under commercial contract at other islands in the near future. -- Operation of two research vessels to support buoy operations and obtain research data on NIOT projects. -- Development and construction at NIOT of an acoustic test facility, as well as a hyperbaric test facility suitable for large-scale equipment. MULFORD