CONGRESS PARTY'S SURPRISE WIN POST-MUMBAI

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 003097

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR SCA/INS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL SOCI PINR KISL IN
SUBJECT: CONGRESS PARTY'S SURPRISE WIN POST-MUMBAI

REF: A. NEW DELHI 3096

B. NEW DELHI 3094

C. MUMBAI 572

D. NEW DELHI 3066

E. NEW DELHI 2969


1. (SBU) Summary: In what came as a surprise to many, the
Congress Party exceeded post-Mumbai attack expectations and
fared well in elections for legislatures in five states. It
won three of the states convincingly and reduced the margin
of the opposition Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in a fourth
state. While most of these states are traditionally straight
two party states (Congress vs. BJP),this time Uttar Pradesh
Chief Minister Mayawati's Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) made some
inroads. In the aftermath of the Mumbai attacks, the ability
of the Congress Party to hold its own is considered a win in
an environment that is made even more difficult by two other
national issues: inflation and the fallout of the worldwide
financial crisis on the Indian economy. Our interlocutors
have suggested two lessons from the elections results: all
politics in India is local, with national issues playing a
secondary role; and the public's outrage in the wake of the
Mumbai terror attacks is directed at the entire political
establishment, not just the Congress Party. The results
bring some cheer to the beleaguered party which has faced
many reversals in the last year, capped most recently by the
Mumbai attacks. If these elections were considered a dry run
for the national elections due before May 2009, then the
mixed results today suggest that it will be as difficult as
always to predict which party or coalition will come out
ahead in the national elections. End Summary.


2. (SBU) Indian democracy continues to surprise at the
polls. It sprang yet another on December 8 when counting
took place and results were announced for state assembly
elections that took place over the last three weeks in five
states: the Congress Party beat out post-Mumbai attack
expectations and fared relatively well. Bucking conventional
wisdom, the Congress Party stormed back into power for a
third straight time in Delhi. It convincingly ousted the
incumbent BJP government in the important north Indian state
of Rajasthan. And, it wiped out a ruling regional party in
the small northeastern state of Mizoram. Polling for these
three states took place after Mumbai attacks had ended: Delhi
and Mizoram - November 29 and Rajasthan - December 4. In the
two other states - Madhya Pradesh (MP) and Chhattisgarh, both
in central India -- the Congress Party suffered disappointing
losses to the BJP.


Congress BJP BSP Others

Chhattisgarh 36 47 2 5 (pending)
Madhya Pradesh 70 144 7 9
Rajasthan 98 75 7 20
Delhi 42 23 2 2
Mizoram 32 0 0 8


BJP BUCKS ANTI-INCUMBENCY IN MP and Chhattisgarh
-------------- ---


3. (SBU) Rajasthan and Delhi results have been reported
septels. In MP, the ruling BJP lost some ground from its
overwhelming 2003 win, but still returned to power with a
solid two-to-one drubbing of the Congress Party. The BJP
also won in Chhattisgarh, where it retained its comfortable
margin. In winning these two states, the party was able to
overcome the drag of anti-incumbency, which is often
compelling in Indian elections and which it was unable to
resist in Rajasthan.


4. (SBU) In the run-up to the elections, analysts had said
that the Congress Party's inability to declare a clear

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challenger to incumbent chief ministers Shivraj Singh Chauhan
of Madhya Pradesh and Dr. Raman Singh of Chhattisgarh would
cost the Congress votes. In addition, both incumbent BJP
chief ministers in these two states have a relatively clean
and pro-development image. The two BJP state units also
blunted anti-incumbency by offering many fresh faces to the
voters. In both the states, even incumbent sitting ministers
were sometimes denied the party nominations if they had
serious corruption charges against them, or if their
constituents expressed serious dissatisfaction in the
detailed constituency level surveys the party conducted.

BSP Makes Inroads
--------------


5. (SBU) Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Mayawati's BSP
contested almost all seats in all the states except Mizoram.
Unlike some of the other state elections earlier this year,
not only did the BSP contest seats, it also put together a
strong campaign on behalf of its candidates with Mayawati
holding rallies and making appearances in each state. This
appears to have worked for the BSP because its fared well.
It won seven seats each in MP and Rajasthan and three in
Chhattisgarh. It only got two seats in Delhi but had a 11
percent share of the vote, which means it could have tipped
some seats away from the Congress Party.

Tough Environment For Congress
--------------


6. (SBU) Pundits consider the mixed results in the five
states a "win" for the ruling Congress Party, which was seen
to be staggering from the fallout of the Mumbai terror
attacks, which capped two years of accelerating terror
activity within India and appeared to reinforce the BJP
charge that the Congress is soft on terror. The Congress
Party's standing had also appeared to suffer from inflation,
which reached a 13-year high earlier this year. The
worldwide financial turmoil had begun to have an impact in
India with the stock market losing 60 percent of its value
this year and economic activity beginning to slow.

Two Lessons
--------------


7. (U) Our interlocutors offered the following overarching
interpretations of the mixed results:

-- all politics is local in India and national issues
(terrorism, inflation, economic downturn) simply did not play
in these state elections while local factors (governance,
caste/ethnic politics, choice of candidates) did;

-- while it may be too early to tell just yet, it could be
that public's outrage in the wake of the Mumbai terror
attacks is not simply directed at the Congress Party but at
the entire political establishment.

Comment
--------------


8. (SBU) Many considered these state elections a dry run for
the national elections due before May 2009. If so, the mixed
results today suggest that it will be as difficult as always
to predict which party or coalition will come out ahead in
the national elections. Today's were upbeat for the Congress
Party and the GOI it leads after a week in which it was
reeling from the public's anger and ridicule over the Mumbai
attacks. The results, especially in Delhi and Rajasthan
which went to the polls after the Mumbai attacks, gives the
party a bit of breathing room and offer a hope that its
position going into the national elections is not hopeless.
Many in the Congress Party must be strategizing that a steady
string of announcements and actions in the coming weeks to

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strengthen the GOI's counterterrorism efforts (creating a new
federal agency, tightening laws, increasing resources for
security agencies) plus a steady focus on local issue would
allow the party to escape the electorate's wrath in the
parliamentary elections.
MULFORD