DIKSHIT DELIVERS DELHI FOR CONGRESS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 003096

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR SCA/INS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL SOCI PINR KISL IN
SUBJECT: DIKSHIT DELIVERS DELHI FOR CONGRESS

REF: NEW DELHI 2969


1. (SBU) Summary: In a surprise, Delhi voters returned the
Congress Party and Chief Minister Sheila Dikshit to power
with a comfortable majority on December 8. The vote assumes
greater significance because it occurred on November 29,
during the Mumbai attacks. Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)
attempts to make terrorism an issue failed to resonate, with
local issues such as water, roads and power foremost in
voter's minds. Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Mayawati's
Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) campaigned hard in Delhi and looked
to possibly play spoiler or kingmaker but was unable to dent
the Congress significantly. The election remained a
referendum on the performance of Chief Minister Dikshit. She
passed with flying colors, but voters are still looking to
apportion blame for security failures at the national level.
End Summary.

Congress Surprises
--------------


2. (U) Popular Congress Chief Minister Sheila Dikshit's party
won 42 of 70 seats to retain power in Delhi. While the tally
is five seats less than in 2003, this third win in a row
resounds all the more loudly given the Mumbai attacks and the
prevalence of anti-incumbency in Indian politics. Although
nominally a "state" election, Delhi is really just a large
city, and the race more closely resembled a mayoral contest.
Dikshit remains a well regarded, almost grandmotherly figure
in Delhi. Her personality and her electoral appeal to
continue development resonated with voters despite
infrastructure problems.

BJP Fails to Capitalize
--------------


3. (U) Early on in the campaign, most analysts predicted a
BJP victory due mainly to anti-incumbency. Delhi has grown
enormously in the last ten years, but infrastructure failed
to keep pace. Lack of water, power shortages, too much
traffic on too few roads and pollution had voters in the mood
for change. But party infighting, an uninspiring Chief
Minister candidate and a focus on terror instead of
infrastructure sealed the BJP's fate.

BSP Wins More Votes, but not a Factor
--------------


4. (U) The BSP, despite winning 11 percent of the overall
votes, won only two seats, not enough to play a role in
forming the Delhi government. As usual, Mayawati targeted
the lower castes, many of whom are transplants from Bihar and
Uttar Pradesh. She campaigned personally in Delhi,
headlining BSP rallies in constituencies reserved for Dalits.
But Congress in particular countered with its own
heavyweights: Prime Minister Singh, and Sonia Gandhi and son
Rahul. The strict appeal to caste failed to resonate, and
the BSP did nothing to spoil the Congress Party's surprising
victory.

Local Election, Local Issues
--------------


5. (SBU) Comment: Before the Mumbai attacks, a narrow
Congress victory in Delhi was entirely possible. Sheila
Dikshit remained a popular Chief Minister and the BJP and its
Chief Minister candidate, V.K. Malhotra, ran an unimpressive
campaign. The BJP made a strategic error when it chose to
focus on terrorism instead of bread and butter issues such as
water, roads and power. Yet even with the attacks in Mumbai,
the BJP still failed to connect with Delhi's urban
electorate. The personality driven nature of the race
demonstrates the continued fraying of party politics. It
wasn't so much the Congress Party as it was Sheila Dikshit

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who won. Although Mayawati's BSP won a significant share of
votes with 11 percent overall, this was only good for two
seats. The Delhi election, despite Mumbai, remained a
referendum on Sheila Dikshit; she passed with flying colors.
Next year's national elections, however, will feature
national issues, and a much tougher BJP candidate in L.K.
Advani. End Comment.
MULFORD