Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08NEWDELHI3094
2008-12-08 13:32:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy New Delhi
Cable title:
CONGRESS COMES TO POWER IN RAJASTHAN
how-toVZCZCXRO0814 OO RUEHAST RUEHBI RUEHCI RUEHLH RUEHNEH RUEHPW DE RUEHNE #3094/01 3431332 ZNR UUUUU ZZH O 081332Z DEC 08 FM AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 4598 INFO RUCNCLS/ALL SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA COLLECTIVE RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 7216 RUEHMO/AMEMBASSY MOSCOW 2938 RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO 5949 RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC RUEIDN/DNI WASHINGTON DC RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 003094
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
DEPT FOR SCA/INS, DRL
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL PINR KDEM IN
SUBJECT: CONGRESS COMES TO POWER IN RAJASTHAN
REF: NEW DELHI 3066
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 003094
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
DEPT FOR SCA/INS, DRL
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL PINR KDEM IN
SUBJECT: CONGRESS COMES TO POWER IN RAJASTHAN
REF: NEW DELHI 3066
1. (SBU) SUMMARY: After a five-year gap, the Congress
Party returned to power in Rajasthan as poll results were
announced on December 8. Congress soundly defeated the
ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP),winning 98 out of 200
seats in the state assembly. Despite spiraling commodity
prices and the escalating terrorist threat, caste
affiliations and local issues prevailed as the top
determining factors in the hotly contested race. The Mumbai
attacks appear to have had minimal effect on voter behavior
in Rajasthan, sending the BJP leadership back to the drawing
board ahead of national elections due by May 2009. END
SUMMARY.
Decisive Congress Win
---
2. (U) On December 8, the Congress Party soundly defeated
the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) led by Chief Minister
Vasundhara Raje in Rajasthan state assembly elections. Over
36 million eligible voters cast their votes for the 200-seat
Rajasthan state assembly on December 4, and the results were
announced on December 8 along with five other states that had
gone to polls recently (septel). Congress won in 98
constituencies, signaling the party's return to power in the
state after a five-year gap. The BJP won 75 seats, while
other regional/local parties moved ahead in 27 other
constituencies.
Local Issues Dominate
---
3. (U) While development, inflation and terrorism continue
to rank as top voter concerns, Rajasthan elections were
decided on candidates' caste affiliations and local issues.
The Congress Party attracted votes from Jat, Gujjar and Meena
communities, which helped party efforts to topple the
incumbent BJP. The Jat votes, which sided with BJP in 2003,
split down the middle this time around. Some sections of the
Jats had become disillusioned by sharp land and water
disputes with the Raje government. A large portion of
Gujjars have flocked to Congress, spurred by the BJP's
perceived inability to deliver on promises for additional
education and job preferences (Ref. A). The sizable Meena
community, which had enjoyed favored treatment by Raje, has
also swung to Congress in response to additional reservations
being granted to the rival Gujjar community by Raje.
Litmus Test for Raje
---
4. (U) The Congress Party campaigned on Raje's poor
development record and perceived rampant corruption in her
administration. Congress candidates pointed to the state
land development initiative as a prime example of government
negligence, in which Raje's administration has lined its
pockets by confiscating prime land for development purposes
from farmers or buying at below-market prices. While
anti-incumbency may have played a role in the BJP's defeat,
Raje's failure to deliver basic needs, particularly water and
energy, figured prominently in her party's defeat. As noted
by a NDTV correspondent, incumbent parties in three election
states of Delhi, Madya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh were
re-elected, which may indicate that "anti-incumbency" may be
overcome by good governance and delivery of services from
elected officials.
Mumbai Effect?
---
5. (U) Following the terrorist attacks in Mumbai, political
observers expected some form of public backlash against the
Congress Party in Rajasthan and other election states.
However, the outcome in Rajasthan underlies the strength of
caste-based and local issues. Even before the Mumbai
attacks, the BJP had campaigned on the "soft-on-terror"
charge against the Congress, in hopes that it would translate
to votes in state and, eventually, national polls.
It's the Candidates, Not the Message
---
NEW DELHI 00003094 002 OF 002
6. (U) In what appears to be an effort to deflect criticism
of their failed "soft-on-terror" campaign, BJP officials have
framed their party's loss in the state as a failure of
individual candidates, particularly Raje, to lead the state
and attract votes. "Even before the Mumbai attack, terrorism
was an issue for us just as the issue of price rise," said
party spokesperson Ravi Shankar Prasad. According to
Congress Party officials, the party's victory in Rajasthan is
a referendum on BJP attempts to "politicize" terrorism ahead
of national elections. Congress called for a unified front
to combat aggressive militancy in the country.
The BSP Factor
---
7. (U) Mayawati's Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) won at least
seven seats backed by a coalition of upper castes and Dalits.
Political observers had expected BSP to gain five seats, but
the party appears to have squeezed enough votes from Congress
candidates thereby adding a new dimension to the state and
national political landscape. The BSP has gained support
throughout northern India in the last five years and, based
on its showing in Rajasthan, is expected to make an impact in
upcoming national elections in 2009.
BJP: Back to the Drawing Board
---
8. (SBU) COMMENT: The BJP has pounded on the themes of
inflation and terrorism for months before the attacks in
Mumbai. However, the outcome of elections has proved that
these issues have not resonated with the local population in
Rajasthan, a primarily rural state with few urban centers.
Local issues, such as the delivery of water and energy, were
priority issues for the Rajasthani voter. Ahead of national
elections next year, the BJP will be hard pressed to
construct an effective campaign that speaks to the common
man. END COMMENT.
MULFORD
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
DEPT FOR SCA/INS, DRL
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL PINR KDEM IN
SUBJECT: CONGRESS COMES TO POWER IN RAJASTHAN
REF: NEW DELHI 3066
1. (SBU) SUMMARY: After a five-year gap, the Congress
Party returned to power in Rajasthan as poll results were
announced on December 8. Congress soundly defeated the
ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP),winning 98 out of 200
seats in the state assembly. Despite spiraling commodity
prices and the escalating terrorist threat, caste
affiliations and local issues prevailed as the top
determining factors in the hotly contested race. The Mumbai
attacks appear to have had minimal effect on voter behavior
in Rajasthan, sending the BJP leadership back to the drawing
board ahead of national elections due by May 2009. END
SUMMARY.
Decisive Congress Win
---
2. (U) On December 8, the Congress Party soundly defeated
the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) led by Chief Minister
Vasundhara Raje in Rajasthan state assembly elections. Over
36 million eligible voters cast their votes for the 200-seat
Rajasthan state assembly on December 4, and the results were
announced on December 8 along with five other states that had
gone to polls recently (septel). Congress won in 98
constituencies, signaling the party's return to power in the
state after a five-year gap. The BJP won 75 seats, while
other regional/local parties moved ahead in 27 other
constituencies.
Local Issues Dominate
---
3. (U) While development, inflation and terrorism continue
to rank as top voter concerns, Rajasthan elections were
decided on candidates' caste affiliations and local issues.
The Congress Party attracted votes from Jat, Gujjar and Meena
communities, which helped party efforts to topple the
incumbent BJP. The Jat votes, which sided with BJP in 2003,
split down the middle this time around. Some sections of the
Jats had become disillusioned by sharp land and water
disputes with the Raje government. A large portion of
Gujjars have flocked to Congress, spurred by the BJP's
perceived inability to deliver on promises for additional
education and job preferences (Ref. A). The sizable Meena
community, which had enjoyed favored treatment by Raje, has
also swung to Congress in response to additional reservations
being granted to the rival Gujjar community by Raje.
Litmus Test for Raje
---
4. (U) The Congress Party campaigned on Raje's poor
development record and perceived rampant corruption in her
administration. Congress candidates pointed to the state
land development initiative as a prime example of government
negligence, in which Raje's administration has lined its
pockets by confiscating prime land for development purposes
from farmers or buying at below-market prices. While
anti-incumbency may have played a role in the BJP's defeat,
Raje's failure to deliver basic needs, particularly water and
energy, figured prominently in her party's defeat. As noted
by a NDTV correspondent, incumbent parties in three election
states of Delhi, Madya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh were
re-elected, which may indicate that "anti-incumbency" may be
overcome by good governance and delivery of services from
elected officials.
Mumbai Effect?
---
5. (U) Following the terrorist attacks in Mumbai, political
observers expected some form of public backlash against the
Congress Party in Rajasthan and other election states.
However, the outcome in Rajasthan underlies the strength of
caste-based and local issues. Even before the Mumbai
attacks, the BJP had campaigned on the "soft-on-terror"
charge against the Congress, in hopes that it would translate
to votes in state and, eventually, national polls.
It's the Candidates, Not the Message
---
NEW DELHI 00003094 002 OF 002
6. (U) In what appears to be an effort to deflect criticism
of their failed "soft-on-terror" campaign, BJP officials have
framed their party's loss in the state as a failure of
individual candidates, particularly Raje, to lead the state
and attract votes. "Even before the Mumbai attack, terrorism
was an issue for us just as the issue of price rise," said
party spokesperson Ravi Shankar Prasad. According to
Congress Party officials, the party's victory in Rajasthan is
a referendum on BJP attempts to "politicize" terrorism ahead
of national elections. Congress called for a unified front
to combat aggressive militancy in the country.
The BSP Factor
---
7. (U) Mayawati's Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) won at least
seven seats backed by a coalition of upper castes and Dalits.
Political observers had expected BSP to gain five seats, but
the party appears to have squeezed enough votes from Congress
candidates thereby adding a new dimension to the state and
national political landscape. The BSP has gained support
throughout northern India in the last five years and, based
on its showing in Rajasthan, is expected to make an impact in
upcoming national elections in 2009.
BJP: Back to the Drawing Board
---
8. (SBU) COMMENT: The BJP has pounded on the themes of
inflation and terrorism for months before the attacks in
Mumbai. However, the outcome of elections has proved that
these issues have not resonated with the local population in
Rajasthan, a primarily rural state with few urban centers.
Local issues, such as the delivery of water and energy, were
priority issues for the Rajasthani voter. Ahead of national
elections next year, the BJP will be hard pressed to
construct an effective campaign that speaks to the common
man. END COMMENT.
MULFORD