MUMBAI TERROR ATTACKS: INDIA REELS UNDER STRAIN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 003067

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/04/2018
TAGS: PGOV PTER PHUM PREL PINR KDEM KISL PK IN
SUBJECT: MUMBAI TERROR ATTACKS: INDIA REELS UNDER STRAIN

REF: A. NEW DELHI 3025

B. NEW DELHI 3024

C. NEW DELHI 3018

D. MUMBAI 550

Classified By: D/Polcouns Les Viguerie for Reasons 1.4 (B, D)


1. (C) Summary: A week after the Mumbai attacks, the Congress
Party-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government, the
Indian security bureaucracy and the Indian public continued
to struggle to make sense of how the attacks occurred and
what form a proper response should take, both internally and
externally. India's intelligence, military and law
enforcement agencies began blame-shifting and finger-pointing
almost immediately after the shooting stopped. India's
external intelligence agency, the Research and Analysis Wing
(RAW),fired the first salvo when it leaked to the press that
it provided specific intelligence in the weeks before the
attack, but there was no follow-up from the line agencies.
Other agencies then jumped in aggressively. The UPA, under
heavy criticism from political foes, announced that Cabinet
Secretary K.M. Chandrashekar will lead an investigation into
the roles of all security agencies prior to and during the
attacks. On the external front, the opposition Bharatiya
Janata Party (BJP) and the Communist Party of India (Marxist)
(CPM) both stated they favored seeking a United Nations
Security Council mandate for possible action against
Pakistan. Meanwhile, thousands of Indian citizens staged
candlelight vigils and peaceful protests in Mumbai and other
cities to demonstrate their solidarity with the victims. End
Summary

Passing the Buck
--------------


2. (U) Allegations started Monday, December 1 - the day after
the siege ended - with a report in the Hindustan Times that
RAW provided four alerts about possible attacks on Mumbai to
a centralized intelligence group under NSA Narayanan.
Seeking to deflect blame, RAW reiterated that as an external
agency RAW cannot operate within India, and once information
is passed, RAW's responsibility ends. Then on December 2,
Navy Chief Admiral Suresh Mehta told the press, "I am not
aware of any intercepts passed on to the Indian Navy." He
also claimed that an unidentified Coast Guard boat stopped
the fishing trawler Kuber the terrorists hijacked, but that
Coast Guard sailors released the trawler when the terrorists
flashed Fisherman Identity Cards issued by the Gujarat state
government. The Coast Guard denies it ever encountered the
trawler, according to a December 4 press report.


3. (U) The Hindustan Times also reported that according to
"sources" a Special Protection Group (SPG) advance team which
was scouting the Mumbai Oberoi in the days before the attack
for a possible PM visit on November 29, did not know about
the alerts supposedly provided by RAW. In yet another
anonymously sourced article, former Home Minister Shivraj
Patil is said in September to have provided now former
Maharashtra Chief Minister Vilasrao Deshmukh information from
intelligence agencies that sea-front hotels in Mumbai could
be attacked. According to Taj Hotel owner, Ratan Tata, a
security alert was issued in early November and extra
precautions were taken, but the measures were relaxed just
days before the attacks. The Mumbai police, however, claimed
on December 1 not to have received any "specific inputs" from
intelligence agencies. Since the initial claims by RAW, the
Indian media have reported numerous stories about the
dysfunctional relationship between RAW and its internal
counterpart, the Intelligence Bureau (IB).

UPA Searches for Answers
--------------


4. (SBU) Hoping to quell the public's frustration with the
bickering bureaucracies, the UPA government on December 3

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charged Cabinet Secretary K.M. Chandrashekar with
investigating the roles and inputs of the various security
organizations prior to the attacks. Thankful for not getting
sacked, NSA Narayanan announced his own action plan to
address the lack of coordination amongst security
organizations. Media reported that Narayanan may be planning
a "100 day revamp" of the Indian security apparatus.

An International Solution
--------------


5. (SBU) Both the BJP and CPM called for India to pursue a
United Nations Security Council (UNSC) mandate for action
against Pakistan. Ravi Shankar Prasad, the BJP spokesman,
explicitly called for UNSC sanctioned air strikes to "destroy
the edifice of terrorism in Pakistan." In a somewhat less
hostile tone, CPM General Secretary Prakash Karat told the
press, "After links of terrorists in Pakistan are
established, the government should take up the matter with
the UNSC."

A Public Grieves
--------------


6. (U) On December 3, one week after the attacks, 10,000 plus
people gathered at the Gateway of India in Mumbai for a
peaceful protest march. Similar candlelight vigils took
place across India. The mourners protested against terrorist
violence to be sure, but also against a government unable to
protect its citizens or adequately respond to a crisis.

Comment: Difficult Times Lay Ahead for UPA
--------------


7. (SBU) The recriminations have come fast and furious from
all of India's security agencies. The papers are filled with
leaked information which shifts the blame from one agency to
another. The public, despite the peace rallies, wants
action, but is not clamoring for war. It does not appear,
however, that a simple reorganization of the security
bureaucracy will suffice. The country is unified against
terrorism, but it is not particularly unified behind the
ruling UPA government.


8. (C) The BJP leaders know full well UNSC action against
Pakistan remains highly unlikely due to China's veto. But
for the BJP, "taking the issue to the UN" is code for
military action against Pakistan. They also know that the
GOI is unlikely to do so because at the same time Pakistan
would take the Kashmir issue to the UN, something that India
has fought for decades. For the GOI, and most Indians, calls
to "internationalize" the situation will remain focused on
the U.S., which they feel is the only country able to secure
an adequate response from Pakistan. There will be heightened
expectations about what the U.S. can or will do.


9. (C) Domestically, the results of recent state elections
will be announced on December 8 - including Delhi and Madhya
Pradesh, which went to the polls during the attack, and
Rajasthan, which held elections on December 4. These
contests will give us the first indications of the public's
attitude. Given the public's anger at the government's
failure - not just in Mumbai, but with a series of bombings
over the last several months - as well the bureaucratic
infighting, the Congress Party's prospects look dim. End
Comment.
MULFORD