INDIA & PAKISTAN TALK AS TERROR CRISIS UNFOLDS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 003020



SIPDIS



DEPARTMENT FOR SCA/INS, DRL



E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/28/2018

TAGS: PGOV, PRER, PHUM, PREL, PINR, KDEM, KISL, PK, IN

SUBJECT: INDIA & PAKISTAN TALK AS TERROR CRISIS UNFOLDS



Classified By: PolCouns Ted Osius for Reasons 1.4 (B, D)



1. (C) Summary: While the terrorist attacks in Mumbai are

still ongoing, already the Indian foreign policy community's

consensus is that these events will damage a strained

relationship between India and Pakistan. Although

responsibility for the planning and execution of the attacks

has not yet been confirmed, the links to Pakistan appear

strong, and External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee has

publicly held Pakistani-based elements responsible. The

ruling coalition likely will blame Pakistan. This will

increase tensions considerably while also deflecting

criticism of the Indian government's failure to thwart these

attacks. A visit by the Pakistani COAS and ISI

representative may buy the government more time during this

election season. End Summary.



GOI Pointing Fingers

--------------



2. (C) Indian leaders are saying that preliminary information

suggests some Pakistani elements are responsible for the

terrorist attacks in Mumbai. Prime Minister Singh in his

public address this morning made three references to a

foreign hand's involvement in the events, saying that the

group which carried out these attacks was "based outside the

country". Without explicitly mentioning Pakistan but

probably directed at it, Singh issued a strong warning to

India's neighbors that "use of their territory for launching

attacks on (India) would not be tolerated" and cautioned

there would be a price to pay if suitable measures were not

taken.



3. (SBU) External Affairs Minister Mukherjee was more blunt,

saying that although proof could not be disclosed, "some

Pakistani elements" are to blame for the attacks, according

to a televised press statement.



Foreign Policy Community: Relations Heading Downhill

--------------



4. (C) As the Government of India becomes more convinced that

the carefully planned attacks in Mumbai were executed by

members of Islamist militant groups from Pakistan, the

Indo-Pak expert community of Delhi is sure that the events

are likely to stall any progress between India and Pakistan

in the short run, and will probably damage the relationship

over the next several months or even years.



5. (C) According to former Indian Ambassador to Pakistan G.

Parthasarthy, the normalization of the relationship between

Pakistan and India will suffer if early indications that the

Pakistani-based terrorist group, Lashkar-e-Tayyiba (LeT) was

involved are confirmed. According to 'The Hindu'

Correspondent Praveen Swami, tensions between India and

Pakistan are bound to increase, as the Indian public is

increasingly interpreting the attacks as a Pakistani assault

on India.



6. (C) According to Hindustan Times Editor Amit Baruah, India

is looking for some tangible evidence of Pakistani

involvement, and once found, relations will certainly worsen.

"The only saving grace for Pakistan is that Indian people

are more angry and frustrated with their political

leadership, security agencies, and overall law and order

machinery than Pakistan or any external agencies" explained

Baruah.

7. (C) According to Congress M.P. Raashid Alvi the attacks

symbolize an "open war against India by forces based in

Pakistan" and the situation could deteriorate if proof of

Pakistan's Army involvement, even if indirect, is found.



8. (C) Baruah and Alvi said they did not think the Mumbai

attacks would have a damaging impact on the Indo-Pak



NEW DELHI 00003020 002 OF 003





Composite Dialogue (CD) process. Baruah said he does not

believe the CD process would be derailed as the Indian

government would not like to take the blame for scuttling it,

but the events certainly would fill the atmosphere with

distrust and suspicion. Dr. Ajai Sahni, Executive Director

of the Institute of Conflict Management expressed similar

sentiments, saying that although the CD process would not be

derailed completely, it would not be without animosity and

bitterness.



Talks Continue Despite Blame

--------------



9. (C) Despite the strong accusations India has made of

Pakistani involvement in the events, the two countries seem

to be communicating. Both sides' leaders are eager to

cooperate on the investigation into the attacks. According

to a readout from Pakistani National Security Advisor Mahmud

Durrani shared with post, Pakistani President Zardari spoke

this morning with Prime Minister Singh and yesterday spoke

with Congress Party Leader Sonia Gandhi. Pakistani Prime

Minister Gilani also spoke with Singh, and the GOP has agreed

to send Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) officers

to India to participate in the investigation as per Prime

Minister Singh's request. Durrani said India and Pakistan

need to avoid being dragged into the militants' agenda.

Singh is reported to have asked Gilani to send the ISI Chief

Ahmad Pasha to Delhi to consult on the attacks. The Pakistan

Army Chief of Staff Kayani is to accompany Pasha to India to

coordinate on the nascent investigation.



10. (C) While the terrorist attacks in Mumbai were occurring,

coincidentally the Indian Home Secretary and Pakistani

Foreign Minister Qureshi were visiting each other's countries

simultaneously. Qureshi, in India at the time of the

attacks, assured cooperation and advised New Delhi to refrain

from a "knee-jerk" reaction, making reference to the February

2007 Samjhauta Express train blast initially blamed on

Pakistan-based elements but subsequently shown to be carried

out by a Hindu group. Qureshi had arrived in Delhi on

Tuesday to meet with Mukherjee to discuss terrorism, Kashmir,

and the Composite Dialogue. Meetings reportedly took place

between the two sides, although F.M. Mukherjee had to pull

out of a planned trip to Chandigarh with Qureshi.



Indian Public Criticizing Government

--------------



11. (U) Indian media indicates that public opinion is more

focused on the Indian political intelligence and law

enforcement failure rather than blaming outsiders. Industry

leaders have been critical of the failure to prevent the

attacks, expressing disapproval over their government's

leadership and approach to the threat of terrorism.

According to local press reporting, Bajaj Automobile Chairman

Rahul Bajaj said the lack of provision of basic security for

Indian citizens is unacceptable and a shame on the government.



India's Patience Quickly Wanes

--------------



12. (C) Comment: Aggravated by the lack of results from the

Pakistani-led investigation into the 7 July 2008 bombing of

India's embassy in Kabul, the Indian government may not

exhibit the same patience and restraint in the coming weeks.

It is doubtful that Pakistani leaders' assurances that

Pakistan is not responsible for these events can convince an

outraged Indian public.



13. (C) Indian political leaders have been constantly

criticized for their lack of response to multiple terrorist

attacks this year. The confused if not chaotic response to

the attacks will only increase pressure on the government,

which is facing state polls in the next few days and a



NEW DELHI 00003020 003 OF 003





national election before next May. The potential visit by

Pakistani military and intelligence officials may buy the

government some time to decide how to respond to an attack

that has led to widespread outrage here and that threatens

the existing fragile steps at dialogue. End Comment.

WHITE