INDIA & PAKISTAN TALK AS TERROR CRISIS UNFOLDS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 003020

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR SCA/INS, DRL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/28/2018
TAGS: PGOV, PRER, PHUM, PREL, PINR, KDEM, KISL, PK, IN
SUBJECT: INDIA & PAKISTAN TALK AS TERROR CRISIS UNFOLDS

Classified By: PolCouns Ted Osius for Reasons 1.4 (B, D)

1. (C) Summary: While the terrorist attacks in Mumbai are
still ongoing, already the Indian foreign policy community's
consensus is that these events will damage a strained
relationship between India and Pakistan. Although
responsibility for the planning and execution of the attacks
has not yet been confirmed, the links to Pakistan appear
strong, and External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee has
publicly held Pakistani-based elements responsible. The
ruling coalition likely will blame Pakistan. This will
increase tensions considerably while also deflecting
criticism of the Indian government's failure to thwart these
attacks. A visit by the Pakistani COAS and ISI
representative may buy the government more time during this
election season. End Summary.

GOI Pointing Fingers
--------------

2. (C) Indian leaders are saying that preliminary information
suggests some Pakistani elements are responsible for the
terrorist attacks in Mumbai. Prime Minister Singh in his
public address this morning made three references to a
foreign hand's involvement in the events, saying that the
group which carried out these attacks was "based outside the
country". Without explicitly mentioning Pakistan but
probably directed at it, Singh issued a strong warning to
India's neighbors that "use of their territory for launching
attacks on (India) would not be tolerated" and cautioned
there would be a price to pay if suitable measures were not
taken.

3. (SBU) External Affairs Minister Mukherjee was more blunt,
saying that although proof could not be disclosed, "some
Pakistani elements" are to blame for the attacks, according
to a televised press statement.

Foreign Policy Community: Relations Heading Downhill
--------------

4. (C) As the Government of India becomes more convinced that
the carefully planned attacks in Mumbai were executed by
members of Islamist militant groups from Pakistan, the
Indo-Pak expert community of Delhi is sure that the events
are likely to stall any progress between India and Pakistan
in the short run, and will probably damage the relationship
over the next several months or even years.

5. (C) According to former Indian Ambassador to Pakistan G.
Parthasarthy, the normalization of the relationship between
Pakistan and India will suffer if early indications that the
Pakistani-based terrorist group, Lashkar-e-Tayyiba (LeT) was
involved are confirmed. According to 'The Hindu'
Correspondent Praveen Swami, tensions between India and
Pakistan are bound to increase, as the Indian public is
increasingly interpreting the attacks as a Pakistani assault
on India.

6. (C) According to Hindustan Times Editor Amit Baruah, India
is looking for some tangible evidence of Pakistani
involvement, and once found, relations will certainly worsen.
"The only saving grace for Pakistan is that Indian people
are more angry and frustrated with their political
leadership, security agencies, and overall law and order
machinery than Pakistan or any external agencies" explained
Baruah.
7. (C) According to Congress M.P. Raashid Alvi the attacks
symbolize an "open war against India by forces based in
Pakistan" and the situation could deteriorate if proof of
Pakistan's Army involvement, even if indirect, is found.

8. (C) Baruah and Alvi said they did not think the Mumbai
attacks would have a damaging impact on the Indo-Pak

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Composite Dialogue (CD) process. Baruah said he does not
believe the CD process would be derailed as the Indian
government would not like to take the blame for scuttling it,
but the events certainly would fill the atmosphere with
distrust and suspicion. Dr. Ajai Sahni, Executive Director
of the Institute of Conflict Management expressed similar
sentiments, saying that although the CD process would not be
derailed completely, it would not be without animosity and
bitterness.

Talks Continue Despite Blame
--------------

9. (C) Despite the strong accusations India has made of
Pakistani involvement in the events, the two countries seem
to be communicating. Both sides' leaders are eager to
cooperate on the investigation into the attacks. According
to a readout from Pakistani National Security Advisor Mahmud
Durrani shared with post, Pakistani President Zardari spoke
this morning with Prime Minister Singh and yesterday spoke
with Congress Party Leader Sonia Gandhi. Pakistani Prime
Minister Gilani also spoke with Singh, and the GOP has agreed
to send Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) officers
to India to participate in the investigation as per Prime
Minister Singh's request. Durrani said India and Pakistan
need to avoid being dragged into the militants' agenda.
Singh is reported to have asked Gilani to send the ISI Chief
Ahmad Pasha to Delhi to consult on the attacks. The Pakistan
Army Chief of Staff Kayani is to accompany Pasha to India to
coordinate on the nascent investigation.

10. (C) While the terrorist attacks in Mumbai were occurring,
coincidentally the Indian Home Secretary and Pakistani
Foreign Minister Qureshi were visiting each other's countries
simultaneously. Qureshi, in India at the time of the
attacks, assured cooperation and advised New Delhi to refrain
from a "knee-jerk" reaction, making reference to the February
2007 Samjhauta Express train blast initially blamed on
Pakistan-based elements but subsequently shown to be carried
out by a Hindu group. Qureshi had arrived in Delhi on
Tuesday to meet with Mukherjee to discuss terrorism, Kashmir,
and the Composite Dialogue. Meetings reportedly took place
between the two sides, although F.M. Mukherjee had to pull
out of a planned trip to Chandigarh with Qureshi.

Indian Public Criticizing Government
--------------

11. (U) Indian media indicates that public opinion is more
focused on the Indian political intelligence and law
enforcement failure rather than blaming outsiders. Industry
leaders have been critical of the failure to prevent the
attacks, expressing disapproval over their government's
leadership and approach to the threat of terrorism.
According to local press reporting, Bajaj Automobile Chairman
Rahul Bajaj said the lack of provision of basic security for
Indian citizens is unacceptable and a shame on the government.

India's Patience Quickly Wanes
--------------

12. (C) Comment: Aggravated by the lack of results from the
Pakistani-led investigation into the 7 July 2008 bombing of
India's embassy in Kabul, the Indian government may not
exhibit the same patience and restraint in the coming weeks.
It is doubtful that Pakistani leaders' assurances that
Pakistan is not responsible for these events can convince an
outraged Indian public.

13. (C) Indian political leaders have been constantly
criticized for their lack of response to multiple terrorist
attacks this year. The confused if not chaotic response to
the attacks will only increase pressure on the government,
which is facing state polls in the next few days and a

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national election before next May. The potential visit by
Pakistani military and intelligence officials may buy the
government some time to decide how to respond to an attack
that has led to widespread outrage here and that threatens
the existing fragile steps at dialogue. End Comment.
WHITE