ENDORSEMENT FOR MIDDLE WAY LEAVES TIBETANS IN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 05 NEW DELHI 003002 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/25/2018 TAGS: PREF PREL PHUM IN CH SUBJECT: ENDORSEMENT FOR MIDDLE WAY LEAVES TIBETANS IN INDIA WITH A DILEMMA REF: NEW DELHI 02884 Classified By: Polcouns Ted Osius for Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) Summary. On November 17-22, over 560 Tibetans gathered in the north Indian hill station of Dharamsala - capital of the "government-in-exile" - to consider fundamental questions on the future strategy of the Tibetan movement. The conclave, called by the Dalai Lama, required Tibetan exiles to decide if the movement should continue along the Middle Way - which acknowledges China's sovereignty over Tibet in hopes of securing great autonomy - or choose a new path. Contacts noted that while participants expressed dismay over stalled negotiations with China, the meeting was marked by an overall feeling of solidarity. On November 22, the "Prime Minister-in-exile" announced that the conclave had decided to adhere to the Middle Way, but talk of independence was now in the mainstream exile community. Attendees stated the meeting unanimously condemned violence; however, post has heard whispers of a small minority that has grown impatient with the dialogue and will not rule out other options. The Central Tibetan Authority (CTA) has not announced next steps, but confirmed that it will not send envoys to Beijing until the PRC seriously considers the proposal for autonomy it presented at the October round. Our diplomatic counterparts in Delhi, often more constrained in their interaction with Tibetan contacts, are monitoring the situation closely to see what Tibetans' next step will be especially as the 50th anniversary of the Dalai Lama's exodus from Tibet approaches in March 2009. End Summary. Conclave 101 -------------- ¶2. (SBU) The meeting, called for by the Dalai Lama and organized by the Parliament-in-exile, took place on November 17-22 in Dharamsala, seat of the Tibetan government-in-exile. Over 560 Tibetan exiles from around the world attended, including members of the Central Tibetan Authority (CTA), representatives from Tibetan Associations abroad, non-governmental organizations (NGOs),Tibetan schools, and members of the religious community. Speaker of the Parliament-in-exile Karma Chophel and Prime Minister-in-exile Samdhong Rinpoche opened the plenary session by clarifying the purpose of the conclave as soliciting frank views on the Tibet issue and the CTA's 30-year-old strategy, to ensure that in moving forward the government-in-exile has the clear mandate of the Tibetan people. For the next three and a half days, the conclave divided into 15 randomly selected sub-committees for closed-door discussions on the future strategy of the Tibetan movement. On November 21, a chairperson from each sub-committee presented the group's decision and the following day the PM-in-exile announced the outcome. The Dalai Lama purposefully distanced himself from the proceedings to avoid influencing the debate. Substantial media presence served to further energize Dharamsala's cafes and bars, as many outfits sent their Beijing correspondents. The sessions on Friday and Saturday were open to the media, but only Saturday's proceedings were in English. Despair, Not Division -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Numerous contacts reported that a sense of "despair" that Tibetans are helpless against Chinese negotiating games permeated initial sub-committee discussions, and acknowledged that even the Dalai Lama is "dismayed." Lobsang Sangay, a senior fellow at Harvard, reported disappointment over the stalled dialogue, especially after "the Dalai Lama made so many overtures to the Chinese." However, initial feelings of despondency were trumped in the end by an overall positive atmospheric that marked the conclave with a "sense of solidarity" and "focus on the good of the cause." Multiple NEW DELHI 00003002 002 OF 005 contacts, including hard-line independence activists, observed that participants respected diverse views and recognized that there will not be "just ONE way forward." Participants articulated a deep sense of duty to the Dalai Lama as he "called the meeting to empower Tibetans and to challenge us to take responsibility for future strategy." Some contacts complained that the CTA missed an opportunity by excluding some "fine Tibetan minds" and that the youth movement was not adequately represented with only two representatives from the Tibetan Youth Congress. However, the Dalai Lama's elder brother Gyalo Thondup accurately summarized the overall tone as "historic and meaningful" for the Tibetan people. Middle Way...For Now -------------- ¶4. (C) On November 22, the final day of the conclave, the Tibetan parliament-in-exile released the meeting's recommendations for the Dalai Lama's role, the CTA strategy, and the dialogue with China. Not surprisingly, the participants urged the Dalai Lama to "continue to shoulder the responsibility of the spiritual and temporal leadership of the Tibetan struggle" and demanded that China cease its "baseless" accusations and insults of the Tibetan leader. The conclave unanimously decided to continue the Middle Way approach; however, it threatened to stop sending envoys to Beijing "if no result comes out in the near future." The parliament-in-exile plans to compile a more comprehensive report, including opinions of Tibetans inside Tibet in the future, but it did not indicate when this report would be released. Both Tibetan and non-Tibetan observers remarked the most significant outcome of the meeting is that independence is now "on the table" and is no longer the marginalized call of the youth movement. Echoing that, the Dalai Lama's Representative in New Delhi, Tempa Tsering, said now there are "differing views, alternate views...that is the shift." Tsering and others underlined, however, that "nonviolence cannot be compromised." ¶5. (C) A missing piece is the view of Tibetans inside of Tibet; although the CTA claims to have conducted a "secret" survey of 17,000 of them, they were not represented at the meeting. The International Campaign for Tibet (ICT) and CTA both argue that the Tibetans inside Tibet support the Middle Way based upon information obtained through phone conversations. Even ICT admits it is nearly impossible to get "a real sense of the diversity of views within Tibet." China made this more difficult by reportedly clamping down on the Tibet-Nepal border. Tsering noted that during the winter months hundreds of Tibetans normally crossed the border; however, now there is only a trickle of refugees. ¶6. (C) Contacts noted the conclave's discussions did not focus on concrete steps, as this was "just the beginning," and the very basic debate of Middle Way versus independence "consumed" the participants. While the conclave did not set a date for a follow-up meeting, contacts noted there was substantial support for having similar meetings annually. The International Support Group of Tibet will meet later this week in India to receive a briefing by CTA officials before the support group begins discussing future strategy. Two Dialogues with the Dragon -------------- ¶7. (C) Tempa Tsering commented that on October 31 the Tibetan envoys provided the Chinese with their "Memorandum on Genuine Autonomy for the Tibetan People," to allow them to review it before the negotiations commenced. Tibetans drafted the memorandum, at the request of Chinese negotiators during the July round, with the help of numerous experts in Chinese constitutional law. The 11-page document (emailed to G NEW DELHI 00003002 003 OF 005 staff) details how Tibetan priorities such as language, cultural, religion, education, and environmental protection, can fit within the Chinese constitutions. On November 4, before talks had begun, the Chinese rejected the proposal out-of-hand, claiming its design was "semi-independence." Chinese negotiators also argued that "all" Tibetans in the Tibetan Autonomous Region are happy wi|h the Chinese government. Tsering contended that if the Chinese refuse to discuss the proposal and "talk for the sake of talking, to impress the international community," then it is a waste of time for the Tibetan envoys. ¶8. (C) Parliamentarian-in-exile Karma Yeshi noted that while the conclave decided to stick with the Middle Way, many Tibetans view this as the appropriate time to "ramp up" pressure against the PRC with a "tougher, stronger approach." He said this may include greater media outreach and protests and imposing preconditions on future negotiations, including the release of political prisoners, holding negotiations outside of China, and insisting on the presence of Tibetan translators. Yeshi also reported that participants had suggested inviting a third party mediator, such as Desmond Tutu, to attend future rounds. ¶9. (C) Tempa Tsering underlined that negotiations represent only ONE level of dialogue with the Chinese; Tibetans increasingly view the dialogue with the Chinese people as more important and more promising than negotiations with the PRC. Columbia Professor and Tibetologist Dr. Robert Barnett believes this strategy was "the Dalai Lama's bottom line all along" and stated many of the Chinese elite, especially Buddhists, are sympathetic. Unfortunately, reaching the non-elite is more difficult, especially after nationalism surged in the wake of Tibetans attacking Han Chinese during the March riots. Tsering confided the CTA plans to increase outreach efforts to the Chinese people through personal contact, internet, and radio. At the conclave, the Dalai Lama's representatives abroad were instructed to make concerted efforts to hire more Mandarin speakers to their bureaus. Mosquito Movement? -------------- ¶10. (C) Vice President of the Tibetan Youth Congress (TYC) Dhondup Dorjee expressed his belief that Tibetans had not adequately "taken responsibility" for their future and continue to "depend on father" (the Dalai Lama),regardless of which path he chooses. He praised the Dalai Lama's attempts to further democratize the Tibetan people, but doubted that they understand that "democracy sometimes means voicing an unpopular view and taking responsibility for it." He also bemoaned the leadership void once the Dalai Lama passes away. Dorjee conceded that the conclave had achieved the goal of providing a venue for "airing grievances" and he thinks the community will be stronger for it. ¶11. (C) Dorjee related that a very small section of the exile community has grown increasingly impatient with the Middle Way and would not categorically rule out violence as an option in the future. He hedged that, "some Tibetans argue that the Chinese should be given another two years with the Middle Way; however, we have been peaceful for 50 years and have been suppressed and brutally killed." Dorjee stressed that he does not advocate armed aggression at this time and that this view represents a very small minority. Perhaps on the defensive for not whole-heartedly condemning violence, he quoted the Dalai Lama: "hope for the best, but prepare for the worst." CTA and human rights contacts noted Dorjee's reputation as the most aggressive TYC leader, saying that his views do not represent the mainstream youth movement. ¶12. (C) Columbia's Dr. Barnett speculated Dorjee has been fed NEW DELHI 00003002 004 OF 005 a more aggressive ideology by former hard-line TYC leaders, such as Jamyang Norbu and Lhasang Tsering, who want the movement to shift in a radical direction. An Australian diplomat who unofficially traveled to Dharamsala for the conclave and met with Lhasang Tsering and reached the same conclusion. Tsering advocates a "mosquito strategy" in which Tibetans would target China's weak spots -- specifically infrastructure, such as power lines -- to cause the social and economic breakdown of the PRC. He proposed that every Tibetan family "donate ONE child to the cause" and argued that the movement would be in "self-defense." Contacts note that while Tsering no longer holds a leadership position in TYC, many members view him as a mentor. These radical views have remained on the extreme margins and were not presented at the meeting. ICT representative Kate Saunders cautioned that sensationalist reporters tend to over-state this position, hoping to create "a division in the ranks." India - Dead-beat Guru? -------------- ¶13. (C) Australian diplomats revealed that during a recent meeting, MEA Director for East Asia Sanjay Kumar Panda indicated India's continued support of the Dalai Lama as a revered spiritual leader, but would not allow Tibetans to engage in anti-Chinese political activities in India. Regarding the Tibetans' Memorandum for Autonomy, Panda reportedly said the Tibetans had taken a "reasonable stand," but it was difficult to see how their requests could be incorporated into the tightly controlled Chinese political system. According to the Australians, he also suggested the Chinese had again stalled in this round of negotiations to gain a better sense of what effect the U.S. elections would have on the Tibet issue. Panda is said to have remarked that India would not get involved in the "nitty-gritty" discussions between the Tibetans and the PRC, but acknowledged that a more aggressive Tibetan strategy could cause problems for Indian efforts to maintain a balanced relationship with China. ¶14. (SBU) During the conclave, the Dalai Lama stated that "India and the Tibetan region share the responsibility of a teacher and disciple" and that "when the disciple is in trouble, the guru must look after him." He again prodded the sleeping elephant in his November 25 speech, criticizing India's attitude toward Tibet as "overcautious." According to Tempa Tsering, the Dalai Lama occasionally reminds the GOI of Nehru's dedication to the Tibetan movement; however, he does not expect the GOI to change to a more confrontational course. International Community's (Non)Response -------------- ¶15. (C) On November 25, post convened a meeting of our diplomatic counterparts, including the UK, Australia, New Zealand, Canada, Japan, Denmark, and Germany, to discuss the conclave and possible responses. The UK representative clarified that Secretary of State David Miliband's denunciation of "suzerainty" on October 29 did not signal a change in the UK's fundamental policy toward Tibet, although it did deprive Tibet of its "last bastion of historical support." He stated that the CTA understood the British response and appreciated that the fundamentals of the relationship remained the same, thought the CTA was "surprised and disappointed" at Miliband's timing. The UK representative admitted the country must balance the "reality of its relationship with China and the tremendous public support for Tibet." Our UK counterpart pointed out that on November 24 Foreign Office Minister Bill Rammell released a statement on the Dharamsala conclave supporting its final decision and sympathizing with the Tibetans' frustration with the China dialogue. NEW DELHI 00003002 005 OF 005 ¶16. (C) The New Zealand representative reported its mission sent a delegation to Lhasa in early November - the first such visit after the March riots. The delegation noted an "atmosphere of fear" and a "high military presence." The New Zealand delegates likened their attempts to broach the eighth round of negotiations with PRC officials to "talking to a brick wall...they were in complete denial." Germany and France plan to send a joint delegation to Dharamsala next week to meet with CTA officials and discuss next steps. Regarding the CTA's request that the EU establish a Special Representative for Tibet, similar to its representative for Burma, the Danish representative responded that it has been discussed. Attendees seemed at a loss on proposals to move the negotiations forward and expressed concern that with the 50th anniversary of the Dalai Lama's exodus from Tibet approaching, large-scale protests may be in the works. Comment - First Step on a Long Path? -------------- ¶17. (C) Tibetan and non-Tibetan contacts were not surprised that the conclave decided to continue with the Middle Way for the near future. Participants noted the meeting served as a "wake-up call from the Dalai Lama to his people" as negotiations have stalled and the Dalai Lama's hospital stays have reminded all of his mortality. Future HEALTH problems could prevent him from keeping up international pressure by traveling and meeting with foreign leaders, although he has planned a demanding travel schedule for the next six months including a planned meeting with French President Sarkozy on December 6. While the international community and ICT breathed a sigh of relief that the conclave chose to stick with the nonviolent Middle Way - which allows the Tibetans to keep the moral high ground and makes third country pressure on the PRC possible - all parties realize that the meeting is perhaps the first step in developing a new strategy. End Comment. WHITE