JAMMU AND KASHMIR: GOI PULLS OFF A SUCCESSFUL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 002946 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/18/2018 TAGS: PGOV PTER PHUM PREL KDEM KISL IN SUBJECT: JAMMU AND KASHMIR: GOI PULLS OFF A SUCCESSFUL FIRST ROUND OF ELECTIONS REF: A. NEW DELHI 2746 ¶B. NEW DELHI 2742 ¶C. NEW DELHI 2378 ¶D. NEW DELHI 2289 ¶E. NEW DELHI 2265 ¶F. NEW DELHI 2223 ¶G. NEW DELHI 2146 ¶H. NEW DELHI 2109 ¶I. NEW DELHI 1799 ¶J. NEW DELHI 1684 Classified By: Political Counselor Ted Osius, Reasons 1.4 (B and D) ¶1. (SBU) Summary: Despite bad weather, aggressive calls from separatists to stay home, and tight security, Jammu and Kashmir voters went to the polls in larger than expected numbers on November 17 in the first phase of elections for the state legislature. The voter turnout was estimated at 55 percent for the 10 seats contested. The biggest surprise was the turnout in the three contests in the Kashmir valley where experts were predicting less than 10 percent participation; actual numbers were much higher. The most important feature of the current polls has been the absence of any jihadi violence, which in the past has invariably disrupted the elections in the state. Several contacts on the ground on polling day confirmed to the Embassy that there were no signs that security forces were coercing anyone to vote. While the GOI has pulled off a smooth and successful election amid a great deal of uncertainty, there are six more phases to go in the coming five weeks and things can turn quickly in Kashmir. The greatest threat to successful completion of the election cycle would be if jihadis, fearing that the call for an election boycott is being ignored, attempted to reignite the terrorist violence in the state. The success of this phase of the election represents a setback for separatist leaders who campaigned hard for a boycott. It does not, however, mean that the separatist sentiment and the deep underlying grievances of the Kashmiri people have dissipated. End Summary. Startling Turnout in the Valley -------------- ¶2. (U) Voter turnout was far higher than expected as Jammu and Kashmir voters went to the polls on November 17 in the first phase of the seven phase election for the state legislature. Of the 10 seats contested in this round, four are in Ladakh/Kargil, three in the Jammu region, and three the Kashmir valley. The remaining 77 contests will be held in six additional phases over the next five weeks. ¶3. (SBU) While the final numbers are still being tallied, the state's chief electoral officer announced after the polls had closed a tentative turnout number of 55 percent in the 10 constituencies combined. What confounded most observers was the much higher than expected turnout in the valley: Gurez: 74 percent; Bandipore: 42 percent; Sonawari: 42 percent. These high numbers came as a complete surprise to most observers who remembered a summer of rage and anger in the state triggered by the Amarnath land use controversy (reftels) when tens of thousands of valley residents marched in the street to protest against the GOI and to demand Azadi (freedom). Suddenly popular separatist leaders called aggressively for a boycott of the elections. Many Jammu and Kashmir-based observers had told us in the run-up to the elections that they would not be surprised if voter turnout fell to less than 10 percent throughout the valley. Altaf Hussain of the BBC told Poloff that he was perplexed by the voter participation in the valley. "I returned (from the field) much wiser yesterday. I now know that it is difficult to understand the psyche of the Kashmiri people," he added. ¶4. (U) The turnout might well have been higher still were it not for unfavorable weather conditions in the region. There had been unseasonably heavy snowfall in the state in recent days. Television coverage showed long lines of men and women standing patiently in freezing cold and melting snow and slush in the valley. Temperatures in parts of Leh/Kargil dropped to minus 30 degrees Celsius, causing problems for both the election officials and the voting public. Free of Violence -------------- ¶5. (SBU) The most noteworthy feature of the current poll NEW DELHI 00002946 002 OF 003 exercise is that it has been free of violence, for the first time in over two decades of elections in the state. There has been no terrorist incident yet relating to the election during the campaign or on polling day. In past elections, there were invariably many incidents of jihadis launching violent attacks to discourage voter participation. Their aim was to ensure low turnout, which would provide grounds for them to discredit the electoral process and question the legitimacy of GOI control over the state. ¶6. (SBU) Muzamil Jalil of the Indian Express, who was on the ground in Gurez, Bandipora and Sonawari on election day, told Poloff that this is the first election held in the valley that is not "under the shadow of a gun." There were two reports of small pro-boycott protests in Bandipora, which were quickly broken up by security forces. Parvez Imroze, a prominent human rights activist who has had many run-ins with the security forces was arrested in Bandipore after police accused him of "fanning pro-independence" sentiments and encouraging people not to vote. He was released later that day. There was one report of a scuffle at a polling station between workers of the National Conference and the People's Democratic Party, which was promptly controlled by the security forces. Free of Coercion and Fear -------------- ¶7. (SBU) Despite the absence of violence to date, the GOI was taking no chances. Security was tight in the 10 election districts with adequate force presence at every polling booth. Unlike in past elections there was no report of the security forces coercing people to vote. Three journalists and one human rights activist who were on the ground covering the polling told Poloff that they did not see any signs of coercion. The media, which blanket covered the polls on November 17, also did not carry any story about voter coercion by the security forces. Muzamil Jamil of the Indian Express told Poloff that the "good news is that people came without fear and there was no coercion by the security forces." Free of Public Campaigning -------------- ¶8. (SBU) Another unique feature of the election this time has been the almost complete absence of public campaigning in the valley. Fearing retribution from separatists (who have called for a boycott of the elections) and the tens of thousands who marched in the street this summer, the candidates have held no public rallies and given no public speeche, a staple of Indian elections. There have been no posters or fliers or placards or loudspeakers, a staple of all Indian elections. The electioneering appears to have been more word of mouth and door-to-door knocking by the candidates, which would represent a new ingredient in Indian politicking. BBC's Altaf Hussain told Poloff that this new model of campaigning appears to have worked, but he predicted that candidates, encouraged by the strong voter participation in the first phase, may revert back to the traditional public rallies and speeches mode. More Candidates, More Voters -------------- ¶9. (SBU) The strong turnout may have been helped by the large number of candidates who stood for election in these 10 districts, particularly in the three districts in the valley. Parvez Khurram, a human rights activist told Poloff that the numerous local contestants who threw their hats into the ring helped generate increased interest in the polls and intensified the stakes due to local rivalries and bragging rights. They also helped attract more friends and family to the polls on election day. Comment: Happy Day for GOI -------------- ¶10. (C) GOI policymakers responsible for Kashmir - the Prime Minister, the National Security Advisor, the Home Secretary, the Intelligence Bureau chief, the Governor - must feel pleased at the how smoothly and successfully they were able to pull off the first tranche of elections in Jammu and Kashmir. They will feel vindicated in their decision to move forward on schedule when many warned that the polls would NEW DELHI 00002946 003 OF 003 offer the separatists an excuse to keep alive the protests of the summer. They will also take some comfort that the separatists have been roundly rejected by the voters who came out in stronger than expected numbers. They will see some hope that voters may be encouraged by success of this phase of the election to turn out in larger numbers for the remaining tranches. Comment: Separatists vs. Separatism -------------- ¶11. (C) The GOI would do well, however, to bear in mind that things can change very quickly in Jammu and Kashmir and success in one phase does not guarantee the balance of the process will go well. The greatest danger is that jihadis, fearing that the election boycott is being ignored, will be tempted to revert to using violence to disrupt the polls. This will only restart the circle of terrorist violence and government suppression that the state has long witnessed. Second, while the good turnout may have been a rejection of the separatist leaders, it should not be seen as a renunciation of the separatist sentiment. The argument being made by some Kashmir observers today is that the Kashmiris have compartmentalized the elections and the the broader Kashmir issue. While they will go to the polls to select legislators because they still want good governance and development, they do not see the election process as assuaging their deep underlying grievances with the Indian state. Comment: Rural vs. Urban -------------- ¶12. (C) The staging of election phases and sequencing of the constituencies was a carefully crafted decision by GOI's Kashmir experts. The three constituencies that went to the polls in the valley on November 17 are rural constituencies where voter participation has historically been high. As one journalist told Poloff, a state legislator tends to be a big fish in a village but does not carry the same weight in the cities. In any event, the separatist sentiment and opposition to elections runs much deeper and more intensely in the urban areas, where the polls have been scheduled last, on December 24. Srinagar witnessed less than 10 percent voter turnout in 2002; it is unlikely to be higher this time. We expect the turnout to fall as the polls move into the more urban parts of the valley in the coming election phases. ¶13. (U) Preliminary turnout numbers in Phase I: --- Voter Turnout (%) --- Region District 2008 2002 Valley: Bandipore 42 31 Gurez 74 76 Sonawari 42 56 Jammu: Surankote 58 40 Mendhar 65 60 Poonch Haveli 64 61 Ladakh/ Leh 53 uncontested Kargil: Nobra 55 uncontested Kargil 55 74 Zanskar 48 79 WHITE