JAMMU AND KASHMIR: ELECTION COMMISSION STILL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 002742

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/17/2018
TAGS: PGOV PTER PHUM PREL KDEM KISL IN
SUBJECT: JAMMU AND KASHMIR: ELECTION COMMISSION STILL
WEIGHING DECISION

REF: A. NEW DELHI 2378

B. NEW DELHI 2289

C. NEW DELHI 2265

D. NEW DELHI 2223

E. NEW DELHI 2146

F. NEW DELHI 2109

G. NEW DELHI 1799

H. NEW DELHI 1684

Classified By: A/Political Counselor Pushpinder Dhillon for Reasons 1.4
(B and D)


1. (C) Summary: Several weeks of peace and quiet in Kashmir
have reignited discussion of whether or not state assembly
elections should be held as scheduled before January 8 or
whether they ought to be postponed to some time after spring
next year. No decision has been made as of the afternoon of
October 17 and signals coming out of the Election Commission
and the GOI change from day to day. There are many
complicated factors that need to be evaluated in reaching
this decision. What can be said with some confidence is that
if election are to be held this year, a decision needs to be
made soon or approaching winter weather will preclude
elections from taking place this year. Debate over the
timing of elections reflects the progress the GOI has been
able to make in restoring calm and preventing violence in the
valley since August when the volatile environment made
elections unthinkable. End Summary.

Peace and Quiet Rekindle Election Talk
--------------


2. (SBU) Several weeks of calm and quite in Jammu and
Kashmir have reopened the debate on whether state assembly
elections should be held on time this year or postponed to
next spring or later. Visits to the state by the Prime
Minister on October 11-12 and the Election Commission on
October 9-10 and the announcement of opening cross-Line of
Control trade on October 21 fueled speculation that the
elections would be held before central rule expires on
January 9. However, the EC's failure this week to set dates
for Jammu and Kashmir along with several states for which it
announced assembly elections schedules led many to conclude
that polls in Jammu and Kashmir will be postponed.


3. (C) The latest word we have as of the afternoon of
September 17 is: 1) from GOI Water Resources Minister
Saifuddin Soz, who told Poloff that a decision has been made
-- he did not specify by whom -- to hold elections before
January 9; and 2) from The Hindu journalist Praveen Swami,
who said that the Election Commission will meet on the
evening of October 17 with Chief Secretaries of several
states to discuss mobilization of government manpower from
these states to Jammu and Kashmir for conducting the
elections early. While signs may be pointing today to early
elections, we caution that there are many complicated factors
at play in the election dates decision and we should not be
surprised if the EC decides to defer. The definitive word on
the elections can come only form the EC. What can be said
with degree of confidence, however, is that the EC must
decide soon on whether or not to hold elections early because
of the lead time required for campaigning and preparation.
Election dates too close to the end of the year become
unviable because of severe winter weather in many parts of
the state.

Election Commission Divided
--------------


4. (U) On October 14, the Election Commission (EC) set dates
for upcoming assembly elections in several states where they
are due but deferred a decision on Jammu and Kashmir
elections. Since President's rule in the state expires on
January 9, assembly elections have to take place before then
or the GOI has to extend central rule in the state and have
its decision endorsed by Parliament.


5. (U) In skipping a decision on the timing of Jammu and
Kashmir elections, Chief Election Commissioner N. Gopalswami
said: "We are still assessing the situation and will get back
to you as soon as we take a decision." The EC had visited
Jammu and Kashmir on October 9-10 to evaluate the situation
on the ground and to consult with state government officials
and security forces. Most observers believed the EC would
announce its decision on returning to Delhi from the state.

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6. (C) Jammu and Kashmir Congress Party General Secretary
and Supreme Court lawyer Ashok Bhan confirmed to Poloff that
the EC is split, echoing media reports that Gopalswami wants
to delay elections until next spring while the other two
Election Commissioners, Navin Chawla and S.Y. Qureshi, favor
elections this year. The Hindu correspondent Praveen Swami,
who has closely followed Kashmir developments for many years,
also told Poloff that the EC is sharply divided, principally
between Gopalswami and Chawla who hold strong views on the
matter.

Prime Minister's Visit and Cross-LOC Trade
--------------


7. (C) The Prime Minister made a highly publicized visit to
Jammu and Kashmir October 11-12 to inaugurate the first
valley's first train service. The Prime Minister also held
an all party meeting to discuss the current political
environment. Congress President Sonia Gandhi, also on a
visit to Srinagar at the same time, met with party officials
to exhort them to prepare for elections. There was a sour
note, however, during the Prime Minister's visit when he was
reportedly forced to cancel a public meeting for fear that he
would not be able to draw a sizeable crowd due to
separatists' calls to boycott his visit. In a separate
confidence building measure, Indian and Pakistan agreed to
allow cross-LOC trade of some goods between
Srinagar-Muzaffarabad and Poonch-Rawalakot. Opening up such
trade links was a major demand of protesting Kashmiris this
summer. Although the list of goods that will be permitted to
be traded is expected to be restrictive, commentators view
the deal as a necessary first step to greater volumes of
cross-LOC trade. Ministry of External Affairs Deputy
Secretary for Pakistan Affairs G. Balasubramanian confirmed
to Poloff that India and Pakistan expect cross-LOC trade in
Jammu and Kashmir to commence on October 21.

The Election Dates Debate
--------------


8. (SBU) The arguments for and against early elections are
well known and have been subject of debate ever since the
unrest began in the state in July. Those who favor early
elections argue that the absence of an elected government in
the state for such a long period leaves a political vacuum
which does not augur well for restoration of peace and
normalcy based on democratic governance. They also believe
that failure to conduct elections on schedule will be seen by
the jihadis as victory in their battle against the Indian
state. Proponents of early elections agree that the
political environment is complex but argue that today's
complexities will not disappear if the elections were delayed.


9. (SBU) Those who support a delay in elections believe that
campaigning and polls will provide another pretext for the
separatists to continue to mobilize the population against
the GOI. These protests also provide a ready forum for
hardline, uncompromising separatists such as Syed Ali Gilani
to continue their leadership of the movement. They also
believe that a low turnout will be politically risky for the
Indian government which has used restoration of democratic
norms as a key yardstick measuring progress in the valley.
Low turnout would raise questions about the legitimacy of
Indian rule in Kashmir. Others point out that state assembly
election should be held at the same time as parliamentary
elections to avoid making the massive preparations and
security roll-out needed for any election in the state twice
within a few months.

The Parties
--------------


10. (C) The People's Democratic Party, one of the two
mainstream Kashmiri political parties, is firmly opposed to
holding elections in the state this year. Party President
Mehbooba Mufti told Poloff that the political environment
needs some space to heal from the tension and unrest of the
past summer. She said that the GOI must reach out with
reconciliatory gestures and confidence building measures in
order to establish an environment conducive for holding
elections. Her party declared victory and said its stance
was vindicated when the EC failed on Octoder 14 to set dates
for Jammu and Kashmir polls, interpreting this as a signal
that the EC had decided to delay the election. The

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reluctance of the PDP to go the polls at this time is
understandable. The party has been thoroughly discredited in
the valley and in the Jammu region for leading the opposition
to the land use decision that stoked the unrest after being
involved in the decision when it was a part of the coalition
government in the state (reftels).


11. (C) The opposition Bharatiya Janata Party (PJP) is
unequivocally in favor of early elections, primarily because
it stands to gain seats in the Jammu region after having been
wiped out in the 2002 election when it won only one seat.
The Amarnath land use controversy (reftels) has helped it
mobilize support among the Hindu population in the Jammu
region. BJP leader Arun Jaitely told the press that a delay
in elections would send the "wrong signal" to the
international community. He argued that there is no unrest
or violence in the state at this time and that pressure from
the separatists to boycott the election is not a good enough
reason to delay because elections in the past have been held
despite the threat of boycotts. In his view a delay provides
political space to the separatists and jihadis instead of to
the mainstream parties. BJP leader Venkaiah Naidu seconded
this view in a meeting with PolCouns, noting that the
Congress Party feared a rout and that postponement of polls
was unjustified.


12. (C) For non-PDP, non-BJP political parties the decision
on election timing is fraught with real difficulties and
political risks. Opinion is divided within these parties.
Many of the politicians do not want to stick their neck out
on one side or another for fear that the eventual decision
may turn out to be the wrong one and fingers may point to
them. The Congress Party, the National Conference and the
Panthers Party fall in this group. Home Minister Shivraj
Patil told the media that the Congress Party is ready for
elections but the decision of when to hold them stands with
the EC. National Conference leader Omar Abdullah made
similar non-committal comments to the press as did the
Panthers Party.


13. (C) The Congress Party stands to suffer heavily in both
the valley and in the Jammu region for being the incumbent
party in Delhi and Srinagar when the situation careened out
of control this summer. Yet, as the party that leads the
national government in Delhi, many of its leaders have a
responsibility that goes beyond parochial political interests
in one state. For the National Conference, the other
mainstream Kashmiri party, the political landscape currently
looks good by default as PDP lost support. However, the
party understands that any win in the valley would be pyrrhic
if voter turnout is low.

GOI Tactics Succeeding For Now
--------------


14. (C) The fact that there is today a vigorous debate going
on whether to hold elections this year is a reflection of the
GOI's success during the last few weeks in first getting
control of the volatile situation in Jammu and Kashmir and
then disaggregating a complicated mix into its parts and
addressing each element separately (reftels). In August it
appeared unthinkable that elections could even be considered
in the combustible atmosphere prevalent at that time. Even
today, it may be risky to hold elections but it is clear that
the GOI has achieved significant progress. It is still an
open question as to whether this is progress is sustainable
once elections are announced and the separatists call to
boycott or otherwise sabotage GOI efforts to conduct
elections which can be considered credible.
WHITE