DATES FIXED FOR FIVE STATE ASSEMBLY ELECTIONS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 002714 SENSITIVE SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR SCA DEPARTMENT PLEASE PASS USTR E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PHUM KIRF PTER USTR IN SUBJECT: DATES FIXED FOR FIVE STATE ASSEMBLY ELECTIONS REF: A. NEW DELHI 2378/2289/2265/PREVIOUS ¶B. NEW DELHI 2110/1765/PREVIOUS ¶1. (SBU) Summary: The Election Commission announced that state legislative elections will be held between November 14 and December 4 in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Delhi, Mizoram and Rajasthan. The Election Commission deferred a decision on dates for state assembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir. While anti-incumbency, inflation and terrorism will no doubt be factors in these polls, Indian elections are mostly decided on local issues, which differ from state to state. These state assembly elections have assumed greater importance because they are seen as a dry run for parliamentary elections due before May 2009 and a barometer of how BJP and the Congress Party stack up against each other in Hindi-speaking heartland of the country. End Summary. ¶2. (U) On October 14, the Election Commission (EC) set dates from November 14 through December 4 for state assembly elections in five states scheduled for polls this year. The EC deferred a decision on fixing dates for state assembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir, a state which witnessed heightened tension (Ref A) this summer over a land use issue relating to Hindu pilgrims. (Note: We will report septel on debate regarding timing of Jammu and Kashmir elections.) In the five states going to the polls, votes will be counted and results announced on December 8. The election timetable is: -- Chhattisgarh: November 14 and 20 -- Madhya Pradesh: November 25 -- Delhi: November 29 -- Mizoram: November 29 -- Rajasthan: December 4 ¶3. (U) The Congress Party and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) welcomed the announcement of polling dates. Although smaller regional parties may play a spoiler role by splitting the vote in some constituencies, four of the five states will have the two national parties pitted against each other in mostly head-to-head contests. In the tiny northeastern state of Mizoram the contest will be between the Mizo National Front (MNF) and the Congress Party. ¶4. (U) The BJP is in power in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, the Congress in Delhi and the MNF in Mizoram. Each of these parties will have to defend against an anti-incumbency factor, which is generally strong in Indian elections. The principal election issues around the country today are inflation and concerns over terrorism. The increased public concern over terrorism is likely to be more of an issue in Delhi and Rajasthan, both of which have experienced high visibility terrorist attacks this year. A wild card this year will be "delimitation." The redrawing of constituency boundaries by an expert commission has changed elections districts, in some cases quite radically. It has forced many incumbents and challengers to seek new constituencies or alter their message to appeal to a different mix of an electorate. ¶5. (SBU) While anti-incumbency, inflation and terrorism will be factors in these elections -- to a greater or lesser extent depending on the state -- Indian elections are mostly decided on local issues, which differ from state to state. In Rajasthan, an important variable will be the residual impact of tension earlier this over the Gujjar community's demand for economic and political preferences (Ref B). In Madhya Pradesh, GOI Commerce Minister Kamal Nath is eager to lead the Congress Party's campaign but there are other leaders of stature who may undercut him. Even if he is not projected as the Congress Party's chief ministerial candidate, he will still play an important part in the campaign. Obervers will be looking to see whether Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Mayawati and former BJP breakaway Uma Bharti can each muster enough support in certain pockets in NEW DELHI 00002714 002 OF 002 Madhya Pradesh to bag a few seats and/or to tilt the results to one or the other national party. In Chhattisgarh, an important issue is likely to be the active naxalite/maoist presence in the state. In Mizoram, the MNF's incumbent chief minister is battling corruption allegations. Congress leader Veerappa Moily said that his party would campaign in BJP-ruled states on the issues of corruption, ineffective governance, and deteriorating law and order. ¶6. (U) While announcing the election dates, the EC also noted that a "Model Code of Conduct" would come into effect immediately. The code of conduct, which is implemented before any Indian state or national elections, prohibits the incumbent government from taking any major policy or program actions that are intended to influence the electorate. The code also specifies in detail the strict funding and campaigning rules to be followed by the contestants. Given the communal clashes in recent weeks in some parts of the country, the EC also saw it fit to highlight the following excerpt from the model code of conduct: "There shall be no appeal to caste or communal feelings for securing votes. Mosques, Churches, Temples or other places of worship shall not be used as forum for election propaganda." ¶7. (U) Some other factoids about the assembly elections in these five states: Voters Total Schedule Caste/ Polling (mill) Seats Tribe Seats Stations Chhattisgarh 15.2 90 30 20,952 Madhya Pradesh 35.7 230 82 46,812 Mizoram 0.6 40 39 1,026 Rajasthan 36.2 200 59 42,212 Delhi 10.9 70 12 10,849 ¶8. (SBU) Comment: Since a great deal of political power rests with the states under India's constitution, state assembly elections are always fiercely fought. The coming elections, especially in the four larger states, have assumed even greater importance because they are seen as a dry run for the parliamentary elections and a barometer of how BJP and the Congress Party stack up against each other in a battle for control in the Hindi-speaking heartland of the country. WHITE