BRAJESH MISHRA SAYS BJP LOOKING TO MODIFY NUCLEAR

C O N F I D E N T I A L NEW DELHI 002457

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/12/2018
TAGS: PREL PARM TSPL KNNP ETTC ENRG TRGY IN
SUBJECT: BRAJESH MISHRA SAYS BJP LOOKING TO MODIFY NUCLEAR
INITIATIVE OPPOSITION

Classified By: Ambassador David Mulford for Reasons 1.4 (B and D)


1. (C) Former National Security Advisor Brajesh Mishra told
the Ambassador on September 12 that Bharatiya Janata Party
(BJP) leaders recognize that their continuing opposition to
the U.S.-India Civil Nuclear Initiative is not likely to pay
off in the next elections. BJP chiefs are considering at the
party's September 12-14 Executive Board meeting how to get
out from under the party's burdensome position. Mishra
explained that BJP leaders recognize the need to realign the
party's stance with its key middle class constituency, which
largely supports the Initiative.


2. (C) BJP leader L.K. Advani remains "obsessed" with
becoming Prime Minister, according to Mishra, which has
clouded his judgment on the issue. According to Mishra,
Advani's opposition to the Initiative has stemmed in part
from his belief, held until recently, that as Prime Minister
he would be obliged to follow in the footsteps of the
previous BJP-led government of Atal Bihari Vajpayee, who
authorized the "Pokhran II" test immediately after assuming
office in 1998. Advani is gradually recognizing, according
to Mishra, that further nuclear testing is not viable, and
that renegotiating the 123 Agreement would not result in a
better deal for India.


3. (C) The BJP leadership lacks a clear, unified position on
how to proceed. Mishra said that senior BJP leaders Arun
Shourie and Yashwant Sinha need to "recognize that this game
is over, make adjustments, and get on with it." Jaswant
Singh "is ready," but Party chief Rajnath Singh remains
undecided. In his remarks to Executive Board on September
12, Rajnath Singh continued to criticize Prime Minister
Manmohan Singh's United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government
for "misleading the country, all the political parties, and
the Indian parliament." (Rajnath Singh hopes to succeed
Advani as the party's candidate for Prime Minister, but
Advani reportedly prefers controversial Gujarat Chief
Minister Narendra Modi.)


4. (C) Mishra does not believes that controversial issues
such as testing, fuel supply assurances, or enrichment and
reprocessing technology that continue to linger in local
media constitute serious political problems for the UPA
government. The important thing now, according to Mishra, is
to allow the U.S. Congress to take action to complete the
Initiative. Mishra believes, however, that domestic
political pressures will not allow the Indian Government to
wait indefinitely for the U.S. to finalize the Initiative
prior to initiating civil nuclear cooperation with France and
Russia. Because India will face elections in early 2009, he
said, "A timetable that stretches beyond December will not
work for India."


5. (C) COMMENT. If Mishra's claim is correct that the
Nuclear Initiative has caused Advani to reconsider the costs
versus benefits of further nuclear testing by any government
led by his party, it is compelling evidence that bringing
India into the global civil nuclear club fundamentally
changes the political calculus in Delhi. This altered
political environment could lead to significant
nonproliferation benefits apart from and in addition to
India's tangible nonproliferation commitments enumerated in
the Hyde Act currently under consideration by the U.S.
Congress. END COMMENT.


MULFORD