GOI OFFICIALS TELL AMBASSADOR PATTERSON POLITICAL PROGRESS CONTINGENT ON CT PROGRESS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 002401



SIPDIS



DEPARTMENT FOR SCA/INS, SCA/PB



E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/25/2017

TAGS: PREL, PGOV, PINR, PK, IN

SUBJECT: GOI OFFICIALS TELL AMBASSADOR PATTERSON POLITICAL

PROGRESS CONTINGENT ON CT PROGRESS



Classified By: Political Counselor Ted Osius for reasons 1.4(B and D)



1. (C) SUMMARY: Deputy National Security Advisor Leela

Ponappa and Joint Secretary (Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iran)

T.C.A. Raghavan, in separate meetings with visiting

Ambassador Patterson, indicated that the GOI is seized from

top to bottom with the unrest in Jammu and Kashmir, but is

confident that it has the structures in place to address the

situation. The Pakistani infrastructure facilitating

infiltration and terrorism in Jammu and Kashmir remains

intact. Extremist groups active in Jammu and Kashmir are

becoming indistinguishable from those operating in the

northwest of Pakistan and pose a regional threat. The GOI is

ready to continue dialogue with the GOP but the Kabul embassy

bombing and Pakistan's support for cross border terrorism is

making it difficult for India to sustain its commitment to

normalization of relations. In private meetings, the GOP has

acknowledged the gravity of the Kabul attack and promised a

report. The political drama in Pakistan is drawing attention

from the Line of Control. Raghavan and Ponappa said that

people-to-people contact between the countries is thriving

but there are zero military-to-military exchanges. Raghavan

reported little progress on the Siachen dispute. END SUMMARY.





India ready to talk, but Pakistan must address terrorism

--------------

2.(C) In visiting Ambassador Anne Patterson's separate August

27th meetings with GOI Deputy National Security Advisor Leela

Ponappa and Joint Secretary (Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Iran)

T.C.A. Raghavan, both interlocutors expressed the GOI's

willingness to work with the new GOP. Ponappa said that

"anything positive from them would be well received." Asked

about President Musharraf's exit, Ponappa replied, "We deal

with whomever is there. We've seen this before, it's a

pattern, you can almost graph it," but pointed out that

Pakistanis can take justifiable pride that this change of

power took place through the constitutional process.

Raghavan said of Musharraf, "His time had run out. He could

never consistently follow a policy to make an impact

domestically." Raghavan stated that the 4th round of

Composite Dialogue "left a good feeling" which led to the

positive beginning to the 5th round. In his view, there

remains a strong consensus in both countries to normalize

relations. He reported that Foreign Secretary Menon

communicated to Foreign Minister Qureshi that the Kabul blast

and spikes in incidents along the LOC will have to be

addressed, and got a positive response. Asked for more

detail about PM Singh's meeting with PM Gilani in Colombo on

August 2, Raghavan replied that there is political consensus

on normalization but PM Singh, while personally committed,

can not sustain normalization in the face of terror attacks.



Kabul embassy bombing "soured everybody on Pakistan"

--------------

3.(C) Raghavan appreciated prior information from the USG and

the Afghan government on the specific threat to its Embassy

in Kabul. He told Ambassador Patterson that if it were not

for these tips, the barriers at the Indian Embassy in Kabul

would not have been constructed before the attack and

casualties would have been far worse. He said, "The Kabul

attack soured everyone on Pakistan." He reported that the

last round of the Composite Dialogue was dominated by

discussion of terrorism and that the GOI made it clear that

such violence is unacceptable and will damage Indo-Pak

relations. On GOP complicity in the Kabul attack, he said,

"we can't tell at what level decisions are happening, but our

own sense is something like this wouldn't happen on its own."

He confirmed that it appears the Haqqani network implemented

the attack. He said in private meetings Pakistan accepts the

gravity of the bombing. Raghavan reported that Gilani did

promise PM Singh a report on the Kabul attack. He added that

the Composite Dialogue was fruitful, but that "There is time

for that. Right now, we must see what happens on the



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investigation."





DGOI siezed with Jammu and Kashmir unrest

--------------

4.(C) Queried on Jammu and Kashmir, Ponappa divided the

situation into two parts: on the domestic side, she told

Ambassador Patterson emphatically that "the government is

seized with the issue from top to bottom," and that the GOI

"has in place the structures to deal with it." She said, "We

have managed to disaggregate the problem and we will use soft

power and hard power to solve it." The Ambassador asked

Ponappa if elections were likely to be postponed due to the

violence in Jammu and Kashmir, to which she replied that she

was not sure.



The external component in Jammu and Kashmir

--------------

5.(C) On the external side of the Jammu and Kashmir issue,

Ponappa said that one "can't distinguish between Jammu and

Kashmir and northwest Pakistan as far as the terrorists are

concerned." She emphasized that the extremist groups

infiltrating Kashmir are flexible, mobile, and regional. They

are a threat to the whole region, including the U.S. mission

in Afghanistan. She speculated that Jamaatul Daawa (JuD) may

be "the center of it all, spawning more groups." She pointed

out that Musharraf, though he decreased infiltration across

the frontier, did not dismantle the infrastructure that

facilitated it. She said that the terrorist infrastructure

appears stronger than before, and must be taken apart.

Raghavan expressed concern about the lack of control in

Pakistan's northwest areas. He argued that the Inter-Services

Intelligence (ISI) had over the decades become used to the

old formula of cutting deals in the Federally Administered

Tribal Areas (FATA) whenever trouble brewed there. It was a

tried and tested formula. The problem, in his view, is that

the people the ISI now cuts deals with are not the same

people the ISI is used to. The leadership in the FATA has

changed, and the old formula no longer works. Raghavan added

that the recent increase in suicide bombings gives a clear

signal to the Pakistani government that it can not relent on

its efforts now.



Pakistan's political drama eclipses distressing Line of

Control issues

--------------

6.(C) Raghavan said infiltration this year was higher than it

has been for years. He believes political drama within

Pakistan is eclipsing the deteriorating frontier situation.

Raghavan indicated that the GOI sees the Pakistani military

stopping infiltration in some areas at certain times while

allowing some people to cross over at other times. He

believed that the military is picking and choosing between

Jihadi groups. The same groups are showing up on the

Pakistan-Afghanistan border, he said. Raghavan called for UN

action to list JuD as a terrorist organization. He added

that reports of Islamist plots against the Beijing Olympics

may make China more willing to support such measures.



Pakistan's political drama - anything is possible

--------------

7.(C) Ponappa asked Ambassador Patterson about the

possibility of the coalition government making a comeback.

They agreed that anything seems possible at this point,

including a PML presidential candidate, or Nawaz's candidacy.

Raghavan called the political line-up in Pakistan "a menu of

bad options." "There are a lot of good guys, but what are

the political options?" he asked. He said that there is not

enough focus in Pakistan on getting policy right. Asked how

to fix that, especially in light of presidential campaigns in

Pakistan, Raghavan replied that "Pakistan must help itself.

Everything we say is held in suspicion." Raghavan told

Ambassador Patterson that the GOI made a specific policy

decision to "keep quiet on Pakistan" after May 2007, when "we



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realized no political progress was to be made" through

exchanging statements.





Contact and exchange between India and Pakistan

--------------

8.(C) Ambassador Patterson asked about parliamentary

exchanges between India and Pakistan, to which Ponappa

replied "India-Pakistan relations are not as one-dimensional

as Bollywood makes them look," saying that there is a 'reat

deal of contact and people-to-people exchange. She added

that she believes there is a fair amount of informal contact

between Members of Parliament (MPs). She noted that a South

Asia Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) provision

allows MPs from member countries to travel visa-free

throughout the region. Raghavan lamented that there is

currently no military contact between India and Pakistan,

though India has suggested "soft" steps like music or sports

exchanges but has always been turned down. Pakistan even

declined India's invitation to the world military games, he

added. Raghavan noted that the Institute of Strategic

Studies in Islamabad and the Institute of Defense Studies in

India have signed an MOU, which may encourage peripheral

contact between the two defense establishments.



Sir Creek and Siachen disputes

--------------

9.(C) Raghavan reported that there has been good progress on

the Sir Creek dispute, but that now "the mood in Pakistan is

too self-absorbed to work on it." On Siachen, he reported

that the Indian Army has drawn a line with its political

leadership. It has told the GOI that withdrawal was

tantamount to ceding the area to Pakistan due to the

difficulty of retaking it should Pakistan occupy it.

Instead, the GOI is attempting to "soften" the issue by

proposing joint military projects such as environmental clean

up or trekking. There has been no Pakistani response to

these suggestions, he noted.



10.(U) Ambassador Patterson has cleared this cable.



MULFORD