BIHAR FLOODS: MILLIONS DISPLACED, INDIAN RESCUE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 NEW DELHI 002400

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR SCA/INS, DRL

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINR IN
SUBJECT: BIHAR FLOODS: MILLIONS DISPLACED, INDIAN RESCUE
EFFORTS AT CRUCIAL STAGE


1. (SBU) Summary: Nearly two weeks after the Kosi River in
Bihar jumped its banks and caused the worst flooding in 50
years, millions have been displaced and half a million remain
stranded in rural villages. More than 90 are reported dead,
according to unofficial estimates, a toll that is sure to
grow sharply as bodies are recovered. Flood victims in a
remote corner of Bihar, one of India's poorest and most
populous states, have gone without food for days in what
Indian government and USAID contacts have described as a
"crucial and final stage" of rescue efforts. Meanwhile,
United Nation's Children's Fund (UNICEF) India and
Bihar-ba{ed NGOs worry that contagious disease may break out
and exacerbate the humanitarian situation in the cramped
relief shelters, where a quarter million displaced people are
living. In response to Ambassador Mulford's disaster
declaration on August 28, the USAID's Office of Foreign
Disaster Assistance (OFDA) made an initial contribution of
USD 100,000 to Bihar flood relief. Based on a field
assessment of flood-affected areas, OFDA will determine
additional needs for relief and recovery by September 18.
The floods in Bihar have exposed confusion, breakdowns in
emergency preparedness and a leadership vacuum at all levels.
Although the Bihar state government has taken the brunt of
the criticism for its slow response, the United Progressive
Alliance (UPA) government in New Delhi was equally
ill-prepared for the scale of the disaster. End Summary.

Worst Flooding in 50 Years
---


2. (U) The Kosi River in Bihar breached an embankment
across the border in Nepal on August 18, causing the worst
floods in the area in 50 years. The Kosi often floods the
Bihar plains during monsoon season, but this year's floods
are particularly devastating as they have affected areas
unaccustomed to high water levels. More than 3 million
people over 394 square miles have been affected by the
flooding and over a quarter of a million people have been
evacuated, the Bihar government said on August 29. One
state-level disaster management official told us that the
relief machinery in Bihar has managed to evacuate 800,000
flood victims. However, as water levels have started to
recede, some flood victims have chosen to stay where they are
and that the "administration cannot force them (to leave)."
The death toll in the state has been difficult to determine.
Bihar emergency management officials have reported 42 deaths,
but actual deaths are expected to be much higher as the
official death toll accounts for only recovered bodies.
Local NGOs working on flood relief have estimated that the
death toll could be as high as 2,000 people.


3. (U) After days of delay and mounting criticism of its
sluggish response, the Indian government stepped up
evacuation and relief on August 28, committing USD 230
million in federal disaster relief and mobilizing resources
to evacuate flood victims spread over 15 districts. As of
September 3, federal and state authorities had set up more
than 270 relief shelters and healthcare camps. The Indian
armed forces have moved on "war footing" to assist with
rescue operations, dispatching rescue boats and air-dropping
emergency supplies and food packets to the half million who
have been left stranded by the rising waters.

USG Steps Up
---


4. (SBU) The USG has responded to the crisis with an
initial USD 100,000 that Ambassador Mulford requested in a
disaster declaration on August 28. USAID has requested the
Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance (OFDA) to conduct a
field assessment of flood affected areas to determine
additional needs for relief and recovery. Based on their
visits to the flooded areas, OFDA officials will provide an

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initial assessment by September 18.

Possible Humanitarian Crisis, Says UNICEF India
---


5. (SBU) But the tragedy is not entirely nature's doing.
UNICEF India representative Karin Hulshof told Poloff on
September 3 that the situation due to flooding continues to
be serious and unpredictable, and that the state faces a
"major humanitarian crisis" if the Indian state and federal
governments do not step up rescue and relief efforts.
Nearly two weeks after the scale of flooding became apparent,
tens of thousands are still trapped on rooftops, elevated
roads or surrounded by water in distant villages. Six
critical areas in the districts of Sepaul and Madhepura are
without food and water. Government officials estimate that
60,000 to 80,000 people need to be rescued in these two
districts, but NGOs indicated a much higher count of 500,000.
UPA government leaders have placed the blame squarely on the
shoulders of the Janata Dal-United (JD-U) - BJP allied state
government for failing to provide adequate rescue and relief
to flood victims. Following a visit to flood-affected areas,
Railway Minister Lalu Prasad on September 3 accused the state
government of negligence "on all fronts," alleging that Chief
Minister Nitish Kumar has managed relief and rescue
operations casually.


6. (U) Experts and aid agencies blame both state and
federal government for not only mishandling relief but also
for failing to warn people of rising floodwaters. One
example of state government mismanagement reported by the
newspaper Mail Today: emergency fax messages sent by
engineers at the Kosi dam warning of impending disaster were
ignored in Bihar's capital Patna. The faxes piled up on the
relevant bureaucrat's desk because he was on leave and no
deputy had been assigned. Calling for "prosecutions for
criminal negligence", the paper noted that no one reacted
even when warnings were sent to other officials.


7. (U) Meanwhile, anger is mounting and stick-wielding
victims have resorted to looting food warehouses and trucks
in some areas. Tens of thousands have crowded into
unsanitary relief camps, where tensions are growing over the
desperate lack of emergency supplies. UNICEF's Hulshof
indicated that the heat combined with limited supplies of
safe drinking water and poor hygiene conditions may become a
fertile feeding ground for water and vector-borne diseases
such as cholera and typhoid.

Missed Opportunity to Prevent Floods?
---


8. (U) Arguments have developed over whether the Bihar
flooding could have been prevented. The Kosi River's flow is
regulated by a barrage on the Nepalese side of the border.
It was built in the late 1950s and, according to analysts,
was meant to be a "short-term solution" for 20 to 30 years.
Analysts have blamed the Government of India for inadequate
repair and maintenance of the embankment. (Note: Under a
joint agreement with Nepal, India agreed to pay for the
maintenance of the river embankment. End Note.)


9. (U) Others have called for joint India-Nepal efforts to
address massive natural silting issue along the river
embankment. Environmentalists say that both governments
should have worked to de-silt the Kosi River, which is prone
to quickly change course leaves behind heavy silt and debris.
Along these lines, senior BJP leader L.K. Advani met Prime
Minister Manmohan Singh on September 3 to discuss joint
efforts with Nepali counterparts to address recurring floods
in Bihar. "In today's situation, everybody should come
together to help rather than indulging in mud slinging,"
Advani added in an attempt to temper earlier criticism from

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Railway Minister Lalu Prasad and other UPA leaders.

The Politics of Disaster Relief
---


10. (U) Indian politicians have actively engaged in Bihar
flood relief projects ahead of competitive state assembly
elections later this year and national elections due by May

2009. Leading the pack is Union Railway Minister Lalu Prasad
Yadav, who has announced an assistance package worth USD 2
million from the Railway Minister's Welfare and Relief Fund.
He also encouraged all 33,000 railway employees to donate a
day's salary to flood relief and has not missed an
opportunity to talk about the USD 23,000 prize money from a
popular Indian television game show that he donated to flood
victims.


11. (U) When asked why he created a separate fund from the
Bihar Chief Minister's Fund, Prasad said, "We are setting up
this fund for our own satisfaction. We want to make sure
this money reaches the needy." He went on to accuse Chief
Minister Kumar of "criminal negligence," noting the 500,000
victims left stranded in devastated floods. Following
Prasad's lead, Congress MP from Rajasthan Sachin Pilot has
urged Speaker Somnath Chatterjee to consider asking all MPs
to use their MP Local Area Development funds outside their
constituencies. Pilot said that he would personally donate
USD 230,000 to flood victims. BJP president Rajnath Singh
set up the party's own Bihar Calamity Fund of more than USD
117,500 on September 2 and announced that the party would
adopt one of the flood-affected villages. Meanwhile,
Samajwadi Party leaders Mulayam Singh Yadav and Amar Singh
visited flood-hit regions on September 3 and are expected to
donate USD 23,000 to relief fund.

Comment: A Grim Situation
---


12. (SBU) With a mlange of federal, state, city and
private recovery efforts under way, the current state of the
relief effort is murky. The humanitarian situation in Bihar
remains grim and -- as information trickles in about
destruction, human displacement, and death tolls -- may even
be deteriorating by some measures. Tens of thousands remain
stranded in the worst affected districts of Supaul,
Madhepura, and Araria, as the Government of India continues
to struggle with search and rescue operations and food runs
out. Equally alarming is the lack of preparedness at all
levels of authority to provide emergency relief to assist the
more than three million people displaced by floods and, as a
result, the threat of a worsening humanitarian situation
remains. In all probability, the after effects of flooding
in Bihar will continue for months, and substantial
rehabilitation efforts will be required by the Indian and the
international humanitarian assistance community.

Comment: Political Fallout
---


13. (SBU) In the aftermath of flooding, a new political
storm is brewing in New Delhi and Patna over the inadequate
government response to the disaster in Bihar. Much of the
criticism is directed at the JD(U) - BJP state government.
The UPA has also been heavily criticized for the delayed
emergency response to assist the 500,000 stranded flood
victims. The flood has also provided an opportunity for
some. Former Chief Minister of Bihar and current Indian
Railways Minister Lalu Prasad Yadav, whose star was declining
in the state, was able to strengthen his appeal by using his
Railways Ministry to mobilize relief. Ahead of hotly
contested state assembly elections in November 2008 and
national elections due by May 2009, the fumbled government
response to Bihar flood relief is expected to be an important

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elections issue. End Comment.
MULFORD