JAMMU AND KASHMIR: CALM AND VIOLENCE-FREE WEEK

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 002378 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/03/2018 TAGS: PGOV PTER PHUM PREL KDEM KISL IN SUBJECT: JAMMU AND KASHMIR: CALM AND VIOLENCE-FREE WEEK REF: A. NEW DELHI 2289 ¶B. NEW DELHI 2265 ¶C. NEW DELHI 2223 ¶D. NEW DELHI 2146 ¶E. NEW DELHI 2109 ¶F. NEW DELHI 1799 ¶G. NEW DELHI 1684 Classified By: Deputy Political Counselor Les Viguerie for Reasons 1.4 (B and D) ¶1. (C) Summary: The Kashmir valley and the Jammu region have been calm this week, with few reports of violence or police-protester clashes. Security forces lifted curfew around the state. Everyday life returned to normal with government offices, markets, businesses and schools reopening. The government signed an agreement with leaders of the Jammu protests on August 31. The pact allows Amarnath pilgrims use of the disputed land that prompted the original protests but does not transfer title. In the valley, the government released several top separatist leaders and hinted at other concession such as relaxing cross-border trade routes. The Election Commission has called a meeting with political parties on September 8 to discuss the scheduling of state assembly elections, which were originally expected in October-November. Early elections pose a greater risk that hardline separatists will be able to use them as a pretext to keep the unrest alive in the valley. The government has walked a delicate tightrope in search of a solution that would restore peace and tranquility to the state. When its soft approach failed, it clamped down hard but has now begun to cautiously ease the pressure. Through all this, the government has successfully avoided its biggest nightmare: a confrontation in which security forces open fire on a crowd and end up killing dozens of unarmed protesters. For now there are some small signs that the government's strategy of disassembling the issue and working on multiple fronts may be bearing fruit. Yet, the situation in the state remains unpredictable and volatile. In the days and weeks ahead, there will be many big decisions (such as the timing of elections) and smaller ones that could easily go wrong and reignite the violence. End Summary. Calm in the Valley -------------- ¶2. (C) There was widespread relief among residents as everyday life returned to normal in the Kashmir valley on September 2 after government authorities fully lifted curfew in Srinagar and eased it liberally in other parts of the �0A;Kashmir valley. Markets, bazaars, businesses, schools, banks, and government offices and business establishments remained open all day without incident. Transport services, which had been suspended for almost two weeks resumed, as well. There were no clashes or terrorist incidents. The calm continued through September 3 and 4. The easing of the curfew came after residents had begun to feel real hardship following a complete lock-down enforced by the Indian security forces to prevent separatists' "March to the Eidgah" on August 25 (Ref A). Unable to move outside their homes, valley residents were finding it increasingly difficult to procure the daily necessities of life such as medicines, milk, vegetables and other foods. The Indian security forces kept the lid on tightly all last week but began to carefully ease the curfew beginning August 30 before lifting it completely on September 2. Peace and quiet in the valley will be tested on September 5, when religious sentiment will be running high after Friday prayers, and again on September 6, when a strike called by the separatists is supposed to occur. Calm in the Jammu Region -------------- ¶3. (C) The improvement in the valley came shortly after calm settled in over the Jammu region on September 1 when the government and the Amarnath Yatra Sangharsh Samiti (AYSS) signed an agreement to resolve the Amarnath pilgrimage land use controversy (reftels). The agreement sets aside 100 acres of land in Baltal for exclusive use by Amarnath pilgrims during the two months the pilgrimage runs each year. The pact permits the Amarnath Shrine Board to use the land for "raising temporary pre-fabricated accommodations and toilet facilities and setting up of shops by shopkeepers" and NEW DELHI 00002378 002 OF 003 healthcare and medical services, food amenities and helicopter operation facilities. It does not provide the Board with any proprietary or title rights nor does it allow permanent structures at the site. The agreement did not provoke an angry reaction in the valley, as had been feared by the government. ¶4. (C) With the signing of the deal, the Jammu region limped back to normalcy on September 1 after two months of protests, strikes, curfews, communal tension and clashes with the police. Curfew was lifted, the Army and the paramilitary forces returned to their barracks, and markets, businesses, banks, government offices and schools reopened. There were no reports of violence or tension. This pattern was repeated in the valley the next day. The economic toll of the two-month unrest has been heavy and may account for the eagerness with which residents resumed their normal lives this week. Separatist Leaders Released -------------- ¶5. (C) The Jammu agreement and lifting of the curfew in the state was accompanied by other peace offerings designed to carefully ease tensions in the valley. The most important of these goodwill gestures came on the eve of Ramadan, when the government released separatists leaders Mirwaiz Farooq, Yasin Malik and Syed Ali Gilani on September 1. Shabir Shah, Massrat Alam and Naim Khan, the three figures who were most active in organizing the protest marches, remained in detention under the Public Safety Act, under which the government could keep them in lock-up for months without a court hearing. Gilani, who has multiple medical ailments, was admitted to a hospital after he complained of chest pains but he returned to his home the next day. ¶6. (C) The government also dropped hints that it is prepared to move forward on opening the cross-border trade route through Muzaffarabad, a key separatist demand that emerged when the protests in Jammu began to affect transportation of goods into and out of the valley. The GOI has not been averse to such "softening of the border" measures even before the latest conflagration in the state began two months ago. MEA Joint Secretary Raghavan had told Ambassador Patterson (U.S. Ambassador to Islamabad, who was visited New Delhi August 25-27) that the India is forward leaning on opening up the trade route but it needs Islamabad's concurrence as part of the Composite Dialogue (septel). However, Yousuf Tiragami, a key state legislator in the valley, told POLOFF that he met recently with Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, who told him that the political environment in Pakistan does not allow progress on opening up the trade route. Election Timing Still Up in the Air -------------- ¶7. (C) The return to peace and quiet in the valley and in Jammu region this week has rekindled discussion of the timing of state assembly elections. The polls were scheduled for October-November but, once the unrest began in earnest in July, most observers felt they were certain to be postponed. The Election Commission has scheduled a meeting with national and state political parties on September 8 to discuss the timing. ¶8. (C) As the dust settles, the range of views on the elections span the entire spectrum -- some call for immediate elections while others want to put them off until March-April of next year. The Election Commission appears to be in favor of holding the elections before the mid-January date mandated by the six-month President's rule that was imposed in July. The Bharatiya Janata Party and the Panthers Party, which have strengthened in the Jammu region during the last two months, want to hold the state elections earlier rather than later. Opinion in the Congress Party is sharply divided between those such as Congress Working Committee member Veerappa Moily, who told DCM on August 28 that he would like to see the elections on schedule, to those who want them postponed into next year because they feel that the Congress Party has lost considerable ground as a result of the unrest. Indian Water Resources Minister and Chief of the Jammu and Kashmir unit of the Congress Party Saifuddin Soz and state legislator Tiragami told POLOFF that they favor November elections. NEW DELHI 00002378 003 OF 003 Those who support postponing elections believe polls now will provide another pretext for hardline, uncompromising separatists such as Gilani to keep stoking the fires in the valley. They also believe that a low turnout will be politically risky for the Indian government which has used the restoration of democratic norms as a key yardstick measuring progress in the valley. Comment: Walking a Tightrope -------------- ¶9. (C) The government continues to gingerly navigate a political minefield in search of a solution that would restore peace and tranquility to the state. In June, it was blindsided when an innocuous issue involving 100 acres of barren land ignited a firestorm on both sides of the Banihal Pass. When at last the government found its bearings, it tried a soft approach, which failed abjectly as protests in the valley grew larger and more intense. Acutely aware of the political damage it was suffering in the rest of India, the government turned to a full throttle clamp down in the valley on August 25 to stifle any semblance of protest. It has now begun to gently ease the pressure. ¶10. (C) The situation in the state remains unpredictable and volatile. In the coming weeks there will be many big decisions (such as the timing of elections) and small ones (e.g., whether or not to impose a curfew) that could easily go wrong and reignite the violence. For now, however, there are some small signs that the government's strategy of disassembling the issue and working on multiple fronts may be bearing fruit. The government took the Jammu protests off the table by cutting a deal with the AYSS. At the same time, it began to cautiously ease the clamp-down in the valley, tightening when necessary to ensure that any brewing protest did not reach critical mass. It has now lifted the curfew completely but will crack down again at the slightest hint of trouble. It made sure that the deal with AYSS did not provoke the valley by simultaneously hinting at cross-border trade concessions. It made goodwill gestures on the eve of Ramadan. Even as it released some separatists, it exploited the differences between them. It is likely to give more political space to the moderates among them while keeping a tight leash on the hardliners. It has already begun track two approaches to the moderates. Whether using a soft approach or a hard line, the government has successfully avoided its biggest nightmare: a confrontation in which security forces open fire on a crowd and end up killing dozens of unarmed protesters. MULFORD