JAMMU AND KASHMIR: TENSION EXPECTED IN THE VALLEY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 002265 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/21/2018 TAGS: PGOV PTER PHUM PREL KDEM KISL IN SUBJECT: JAMMU AND KASHMIR: TENSION EXPECTED IN THE VALLEY ON AUGUST 22 REF: A. NEW DELHI 2223 ¶B. NEW DELHI 2146 ¶C. NEW DELHI 2109 ¶D. NEW DELHI 1799 ¶E. NEW DELHI 1684 Classified By: Deputy Political Counselor Les Viguerie for Reasons 1.4 (B and D) ¶1. (C) Summary: After a relatively calm week so far, August 22 is expected to be tense in the Kashmir valley because separatist leaders have called for a march in memory of those who died in police firings in recent weeks. Any clash between security forces and the protesters will further inflame the situation. An August 18 march to the U.N. Military Observers in India and Pakistan (UNMOGIP) offices was free of violence as Indian security forces stood aside. So far this week, truck traffic in and out of the valley was flowing smoothly and shops and businesses in Srinagar had begun to reopen by mid-week. Jammu was more restless, with a three-day "fill-the-jails" protest that saw scattered incidents of violence but no police firings or deaths. A high-powered GOI team lead by National Security Adviser M.K. Narayanan visited Srinagar and Jammu on August 19-20 on what was described as a fact-finding mission. Disagreements and quarrels have begun to emerge within the separatist camp as long-standing personal grievances resurface and as old rivals jockey for advantage in the current protest movement. The United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government is suffering heavy political damage as television plays nonstop coverage of security forces standing aside tamely as protestors wave Pakistani flags. The question facing the UPA government is how long it can continue to tolerate this before it is forced to reassert control in the valley. It is possible that at some point economic interests take the wind out of the protests, which have taken a heavy economic toll on the state. End Summary. Friday Expected to be Tense -------------- ¶2. (C) August 22 promises to be a tense day in the valley as the All Party Hurriyat Conference has called for a "March to the Eidgah" in memory of those who died in the recent violence, including separatist leader Sheikh Abdul Aziz who was killed when police fired on protesters marching to the LOC on August 11. Emotions will also be running high on that day as the bloodshed in Kashmir will no doubt be raised during Friday sermons in the valley. If the crowds get unruly and aggressive, it will test the patience of Indian security agencies which earlier this week stood aside as protesters waved Pakistani flags. Otherwise, a Fairly Quiet Week in the Valley -------------- ¶3. (U) The fear of violence on August 22 comes at the end of a relatively calm week in the state. On August 18, thousands marched to UNMOGIP offices in Srinagar to submit a petition requesting U.N. intervention in the Kashmir conflict. The march was peaceful as the Indian security forces stood aside, taking care not to be provoked. Mirwaiz Umar Farooq, Syed Ali Shah Gilani, Yasin Malik and Shabir Shah addressed the crowds, reiterating their demands and their grievances against the Indian state. ¶4. (U) There were no clashes between security forces and the protesters anywhere in the valley this week. Truck traffc to and from the valley was flowing smoothly, with the Army keeping a close watch to ensure there were no disruptions. The complaints about an "economic blockade" emanating from the separatist camp have subsided as cargo began to move. Home Secretary Madhukar Gupta provided statistics on the numbers of trucks moving into and out of the valley in an effort to dispel notions of a blockade. Normal activity in Srinagar slowly started limping back to life during the week, with some markets, businesses and schools reopening. Jammu More Restive -------------- ¶4. (SBU) In the Jammu region, the Amarnath Yatra Sanghrash Samiti (AYSS),which has been coordinating the NEW DELHI 00002265 002 OF 003 counter-protests, ended a three-day Jail Bharo ("fill-the-jails) program in which thousands courted arrest August 18-20. There were some scattered incidents each day as police resorted to tear gas and baton charges to control unruly crowds. While there were no deaths, there were reportedly about 50 injured as police and protestors clashed in Jammu and Akhnoor. On August 20, crowds stormed a police station and, in a separate incident, burned an ATM machine at a bank. A Bharatiya Janata Party official's house was attacked, apparently by mistake. Curfew was re-imposed in some parts of Jammu for short durations on August 19 and 20. On concluding the three-day protests, the AYSS announced it would begin an indefinite program of "civil disobedience" under which citizens would be encouraged not to pay taxes or other bills and fees due to the government to mirror what has been the practice in the valley for years. Delhi Still Desperately Seeking Solutions -------------- ¶5. (C) In Delhi, the Prime Minister appealed for peace in Jammu and Kashmir in his Independence Day address to the nation on August 15. He also called for "dialogue and reconciliation" in the state in public remarks on August 20. External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee continues to chair a working group established to help resolve the situation. In the most significant and most widely watched move, the four top GOI officials directly responsible for Kashmir security -- National Security Advisor M.K. Narayanan, Home Secretary Madhukar Gupta, Defense Secretary Vijay Singh and Intelligence Bureau chief P.C. Haldar -- went to Srinagar and Jammu on August 19-20 to meet with the Governor and on-the-ground security officials. They also met with Farooq Abdullah and Omar Abdullah, leaders of the National Conference, a mainstream political party. The Narayanan mission was described as a fact finding trip. Media reported that Water Resources Minister Saifuddin Soz has been sent as the GOI emissary to open track II discussions with some of the separatists. Soz told Pol FSN that the situation is difficult but his efforts continue and he hopes he can make some breakthrough. Cracks in the Separatist Camp? -------------- ¶6. (C) Rifts began to surface publicly among the separatist leaders, who have a notorious record of internecine violence, bitterness, struggles and jealousies but had appeared to set aside their difference to come together during the Amarnath Shrine controversy. Addressing the large crowd during the UNMOGIP rally on August 18, Syed Ali Gilani laid claim to sole leadership of the separatist movement. With Mirwaiz Farooq and Yasin Malik sitting next to him, he asked the crowd to proclaim him leader of the movement as the emotionally charged crowd roared its approval. ¶7. (C) Gilani publicly apologized later that day when he said "The movement is bigger than the individual. It was a slip of the tongue and if it hurt anybody's feelings, I apologize. I prefer unity over everything else." The Mirwaiz refused to comment afterwards, saying only that Gilani has tendered his apology and retracted his statement. Yasin Malik of the Jammu and Kashmir Liberation Front, while attending all the protests, has been careful to keep some distance from the other separatists. Bilal Lone and Professor Abdul Ghani Bhatt have been conspicuously absent from the protests since they started in June. Media reported that an August 20 meeting of the separatists disintegrated into chaos as supporters of Gilani and the Mirwaiz traded charges and countercharges, which escalated into physical scuffles as several leaders walking out of the meeting. The chief Mufti of Kashmir criticized as abhorrent to Islam the call by Gilani for all Srinagar residents to pray at the Martyr's Graveyard instead of a mosque on August 22. Comment: When will the GOI Enforce its Writ? -------------- ¶8. (C) Despite a generally quiet week, Jammu and Kashmir remains on edge. There will be many opportunities over the coming weeks for the tension to boil over. Following tomorrow's march in Srinagar, BJP leaders L.K. Advani and Rajnath Singh are rumored to be planning a visit to Jammu on NEW DELHI 00002265 003 OF 003 August 25. September 19 will mark the end of the 40 day mourning period over separatist leader Sheikh Aziz's death. Leaders of the protest movements in both the valley and in the Jammu region will continue to seek other opportunities and excuses to keep the protests alive. Any response by the Indian security agencies that is considered heavy-handed will provide further provocation. ¶9. (C) The GOI will find it hard to stand aside indefinitely if the protests in the valley continue and if, as was the case on August 18, television throughout India continues to play in endless loop video of protesters in the valley taking to the streets waving Pakistani flags. The UPA government would suffer heavy political damage in the rest of India for its seeming impotence in the face of what would be perceived as flagrantly subversive and seditious behavior by Kashmiris. NSA Narayanan and his security team were sent to the state by the UPA leadership to examine the most effective way of reestablishing the writ of the government in the state at the earliest possible time. ¶10. (C) On the positive side, the Amarnath pilgrimage has ended. While the unrest in the state is no longer about the land dispute that ignited it in the first place, the conclusion of the two-month pilgrimage does remove one irritant off the table until next summer. Another factor to watch for is whether economic interests in the valley and the Jammu region will begin to exert pressure on the protest coordinators to end the unrest. Economic activity has slowed visibly as shops, schools and businesses closed, tourists turned their backs and migrant labor began to leave the state. Both the valley and the Jammu region were in the middle of a robust growth cycle before the turmoil began in June. The sharp economic slowdown may give pause to some over the wisdom of continuing the confrontation. WHITE