PM'S INDEPENDENCE DAY ADDRESS: INDIA'S MOMENT TO

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 002264 SENSITIVE SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR SCA/INS, DRL E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PTER PREL PINR KDEM KNNP ETTC ENRG TRGY IN SUBJECT: PM'S INDEPENDENCE DAY ADDRESS: INDIA'S MOMENT TO SHINE REF: A. NEW DELHI 2146 ¶B. NEW DELHI 2109 ¶1. (SBU) Summary: While giving prominent attention to issues that most directly involve U.S. interests -- U.S.-India Civil Nuclear initiative, Jammu and Kashmir, terrorism and regional security -- Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's traditional Independence Day address on August 15 focused primarily on domestic issues. He underscored United Progressive Alliance (UPA) policies that have had the greatest impact, including debt waiver for farmers, rural job creation and infrastructural development. Singh's remarks highlighted the UPA's role in shaping the "New India," pointing to the unprecedented economic growth which he argued has laid the foundations for a promising future for India in this century. The speech provides a hint of what the Congress Party's election strategy will be going into the elections: preemptively deflect anticipated criticism on certain issues -- inflation, the Jammu and Kashmir unrest, and terrorism in the aftermath of serial bombings in Indian regional centers -- while trying to shift the focus to popular UPA initiatives and overlay a vision of India marching to reclaim its "rightful" place on the international stage. End Summary. Pakistan Relationship Strained by Kabul Attack --- ¶2. (U) During the traditional Independence Day address on August 15 from atop the Red Fort ramparts, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh observed that the bombing of India's embassy in Kabul last month cast a dark shadow on efforts to normalize relations with Islamabad. His comments were the latest in the rachetting up of rhetoric by Indian government officials alleging ISI complicity in the July 7 Kabul attack in which two Indians were among the 58 people killed. Singh said he had personally conveyed his "concern and disappointment" to his Pakistani counterpart Yousaf Raza Gilani when they met on August 2 on the margins of the South Asia Association for Regional Cooperation Summit in Colombo. ¶3. (U) Singh further observed that terrorist resurgence in Indian cities and Jammu and Kashmir was contributing to the fractured bilateral relationship. He condemned the recent terror attacks in Bangalore, Ahmedabad and Jaipur as acts of "barbarism" and vowed to strengthen the intelligence agencies and police forces. He pointed to escalating violence in Jammu and Kashmir following weeks of reported firing across the line of control in violation of the 2006 cease fire agreement. If the issue of terrorism is not addressed, Singh warned, bilateral efforts to promote peace and security "would be negated." (Comment: Singh took care to distinguish between the Pakistan government and the ISI, which New Delhi has implicated in terrorist attacks targeting Indians.) Singh Appeals for Peace in Jammu and Kashmir --- ¶4. (U) The PM appealed for peace in Jammu and Kashmir following weeks of violent protests over the Amaranath land transfer issue that has bitterly divided the country's only Muslim-majority state along communal lines. The Kashmir valley has seen its worst protests since separatist revolt broke out 20 years ago (reftels). In a dig at the opposition Bharatiya Janata Party, the PM criticized short-sighted politicians for stoking communal sentiments and warned that "divisive politics will lead us nowhere." All political parties should keep Jammu and Kashmir's long-term interests in mind and resolve issues by engaging in peaceful dialogue, he added. Nuclear Deal Will End India's Isolation NEW DELHI 00002264 002 OF 003 --- ¶5. (U) Less than one week before the August 21-22 meeting of the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) considers an India-specific exception, Singh pitched for nuclear energy as an alternative that would enable India to meet the twin challenges of energy security and climate change, while ending India's global nuclear isolation. With one eye on NSG members that have reservations on aspects of the civil nuclear initiative, he emphasized nuclear power was a "clean, environmental friendly and renewable source of energy." ¶6. (U) The PM sought to highlight the benefits of the civil nuclear deal in a manner that would be easily understood by the broad electorate by noting that it would "enable us to provide electricity to meet the needs of our farmers, our artisans, our traders and our industry. "Linking the nuclear agreement with national development, Singh contended that the Nuclear Initiative would end India's nuclear isolation by opening up new trade opportunities in dual-use high technology and nuclear materials and equipment, providing "new pathways to industrialization of our country." He argued that the Nuclear Initiative would restore and develop the nation's nuclear energy capabilities after nearly three decades of isolation from the international community. "Many countries have imposed sanctions on trade with India in nuclear materials, nuclear equipment and nuclear technology. As a result, our nuclear energy program has suffered," Singh lamented. Singh Points to UPA Achievements --- ¶7. (U) Singh underscored UPA government's achievements while projecting a promising global future for India. India today is viewed as one of the world's fastest growing economies, he observed, noting the diverse talents and achievements of the Indian diaspora throughout the world. "The world expects India to regain its due place in the comity of nations. This is our moment," Singh said to cheers from the audience, which included an estimated 3,000 enthusiastic schoolchildren dressed in the colors of the Indian tricolor flag. Singh went on to list major achievements of the UPA government -- debt waiver for farmers, job creations schemes, credit programs for farmers, and infrastructure development -- that have directly contributed to India's historic annual growth rate of nearly nine-percent. ¶8. (SBU) The PM conceded that inflation, which stands at a 14-year high of 12.44 percent, poses a serious risk. The challenge for his government, he said, is to control inflation while ensuring that India's high economic growth rates are not compromised. Singh lauded UPA policies that contributed to historic growth rates for four consecutive years but admitted that inflation poses a serious challenge. He sought to shift the blame by describing spiraling food and commodity prices as an "imported" problem but noting that the government has taken steps to ease pressures on the average citizen. ¶9. (SBU) At the start of what will be an intense election season, he sought to project a bolder and bigger vision. Referring to upcoming state elections in November 2008 and national elections that must be held by May 2009, he said that Indian political parties had an obligation to think in the national interest, not according to election cycles. "We have to think about the welfare, well-being of our children, grandchildren, their grandchildren and future generations." Comment: India Looks Towards the Future --- NEW DELHI 00002264 003 OF 003 ¶10. (SBU) The Prime Minister's Independence Day speech was in fact a campaign checklist, touching on every major issue that is likely to shape the coming state and national elections. The remarks also provide hints of what the Congress Party's election strategy will be going into the elections: preemptively deflect anticipated criticism on certain issues -- inflation, the Jammu and Kashmir unrest, and fear of resurging terrorism in the aftermath of serial bombings in Indian regional centers -- while trying to shift the focus to popular UPA initiatives such as farm debt write-off, job guarantee schemes, and infrastructure development. Overlaying all this will be an effort to generate a positive sense of wellbeing by pointing to the unprecedented run of high growth rates and projecting a vision of a bright future where India reclaims its rightful place as a global power. End Comment. WHITE