MUSHARRAF RESIGNS: INDIAN REACTION PURPOSEFULLLY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 002246

SIPDIS

ALSO FOR SCA/PB TARA FOLEY

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/19/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL ASEC PINR PTER KNNP PK IN
SUBJECT: MUSHARRAF RESIGNS: INDIAN REACTION PURPOSEFULLLY
MUTED, BUT FEAR GROWS OF WEAKENED CIVILIAN CONTROL

REF: STATE 88734

NEW DELHI 00002246 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: Charge d'Affaires, a.i., Steven White for Reasons 1.4 (B
, D)


1. (C) Summary. Official Indian reaction to news of
President Musharraf's resignation has been a calculated
message of non-interference and a desire to work with the GOP
to continue to improve bilateral ties. Below the surface is
a fear that Musharraf's departure could lead to a breakdown
of civilian control over the Pakistani military/intelligence
apparatus, reinserting an uncomfortable element of
uncertainty in the future of Indo-Pak relations. End Summary.

-------------- Points Delivered --------------


2. (C) Reftel points were delivered August 19 to Ministry of
External Affairs (MEA) Joint Secretary (Pakistan, Afghanistan
and Iran) T.C.A. Raghavan and Joint Secretary (Americas)
Gaitri Kumar. Our MEA interlocutors thanked us for sharing
the USG approach to Musharraf's resignation but offered no
immediate substantive response. Official Indian reaction
began with a particularly evasive response to questions from
the media from the MEA spokesperson, who said simply: "We
have no comments to make on the resignation of President
Musharraf of Pakistan. This is an internal matter of
Pakistan." External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee
reiterated that India won't interfere in Pakistan's internal
crisis, and asserted that India did not expect any major
shift in policy toward Islamabad. "Relations are not
individual specific," Mukherjee stated, adding that his
recent visit to Pakistan had reinforced the ongoing nature of
the Composite Dialogue talks. Opposition BJP party spokesman
Ravi Shankar Prasad also offered no comment on what he termed
Pakistan's internal affair.

-------------- Fear Of Uncertainty And A Pakistani Army Out Of
Civilian Control --------------


3. (C) Behind Qhe scenes, however, is an underlying fear that
Musharraf's departure could have negative implications for
the Pakistan government's stability, and for civilian control
of its security apparatus. Former Indian High Commissioner
to Pakistan G. Parthasarthy told Poloff that while Indian
officials would not share the view publicly, in reality they
are concerned that Musharraf's exit could lead to a split
between the Pakistani government and military, with the
civilians losing any control of the military and,
consequently, over Pakistani intelligence agencies. Without
a strong civilian leader, Pakistan will be left with "a
civilian government only in name," Parthasarthy opined, with
the top three security issues -- which he defined as India,
Afghanistan and nuclear weapons -- left in the hands of the
Pakistani military, specifically General Kayani.
Parthasarthy, who served as High Commissioner during Nawaz
Sharif's tenure as President and admits to having a bias
against Sharif's "Islamist" leanings, argued that the
Pakistan Army's emergence is especially troubling for India
as, unlike the U.S. or China, New Delhi does not have solid
links to the Pakistan Army. Should such a split occur, "We
will be dealing with a hopelessly weak Prime Minister, a
political non-entity, while ISI continues to do what it
wants," he speculated.


4. (SBU) Parthasarthy's concerns were echoed in Indian media

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coverage of the resignation. In a sidebar in The Indian
Express entitled "Delhi hopes for best, prepares for worst,"
the daily answered its own question of how this move will
affect New Delhi-Islamabad engagement by saying "Too early to
say but one thing (is) clear: too many uncertainties. Few
know how the ruling coalition can impact (the) Army and ISI
which control Pak attitudes on Kashmir, Afghanistan and
terror." The Hindustan Times, under a headline "What it
means for India," noted the decrease in infiltrations and
border skirmishes under Musharraf, and quoted unnamed Indian
intelligence officials as saying that with Musharraf gone,
"terror groups are likely to target India with new
determination." It argued that recent firings across the
Line of Control into Kashmir prove that the Pakistani
government is losing its grip on the Army, and speculated
that the situation in Kashmir will allow Pakistan an
opportunity to send more infiltrators. The right wing
Pioneer, in an editorial, noted that Musharraf was the first
Pakistani leader to give up UN Security Council resolutions
on Kashmir and to approve the cease-fire along the Line of
Control, two issues which have appeared to be reversing
direction in recent days.

-------------- Comment: India Anxious, But Not New To Pakistan's
Political Machinations --------------


5. (C) Comment. Despite the calm public face, Musharraf's
resignation has thrusted India into another era of
uncomfortable uncertainty with its neighbor. With
nervousness already looming over infiltrations over the Line
of Control, interference in events in Kashmir, and rising
terrorism including the bombing of the Indian Embassy in
Kabul, India's worst fear is of a rogue Pakistani Army/ISI
refocusing on India. India sees the ball as being in
Pakistan's court, waiting for the political situation to sort
itself out, hoping against hope that the government will be
able to maintain control over security/intelligence forces
and will want to push forward with improvements made in the
bilateral relationship under Musharraf's tenure. On the
positive side, the innocuous remarks by Indian officials
demonstrate maturity from Delhi and are a sign that it does
not seek to take advantage of Pakistan's political problems
for short-term gain. There is also a feeling among many
Indians, articulated by strategic affairs analyst K.
Subrahmanyam on August 18, that the more things change in
Pakistan, the more they stay the same; Subrahmanyam argued
that the Army Chief has often dictated Pakistan foreign and
defense policy, "therefore there will be no change for
India." While India will likely take no position on the
issue of a dignified exit for Musharraf, based on the initial
reaction we have observed, Post expects the GOI to uphold the
main objectives of reftel, i.e., to support the
democratically-elected civilian government, and to encourage
continued bilateral dialogue and further improvement in
relations.
WHITE