JAMMU AND KASHMIR: VIOLENCE AND PROTESTS PEAK

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 002223 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/12/2018 TAGS: PGOV PTER PHUM PREL KDEM KISL IN SUBJECT: JAMMU AND KASHMIR: VIOLENCE AND PROTESTS PEAK BEFORE SUBSIDING REF: A. NEW DELHI 2146 ¶B. NEW DELHI 2109 ¶C. NEW DELHI 1799 ¶D. NEW DELHI 1684 Classified By: Political Counselor Ted Osius for Reasons 1.4 (B and D) ¶1. (C) Summary: Following two days of increasing tension and violence in Jammu and Kashmir, the situation improved on August 13. There were fewer protests and confrontations, with only one reported incident of police firing on protestors. Curfew was relaxed for most of the day and truck traffic began to move freely to and from the state. The improvement comes after two days in which the intensity of the protests and the police retaliation in the valley reached levels not seen since the height of the insurgency in the early 1990s. In Delhi, the UPA government continued to hold all-party meetings in a so-far unsuccessful attempt to find a compromise formula to address the issue of land use by pilgrims to the Amarnath shrine. The situation is expected to remain tense, at least for a few more days if not longer, particularly since Indian independence day on August 15 will provide more fuel to protesters on both sides. In a sign of how sensitive the GOI considers the issue, it reacted sharply to Pakistani statements on the Kashmir violence, accusing it of interference in India's internal affairs. The GOI will likely lash out hard at any other international calls of concern about the situation in the state. The current turmoil in the valley threatens to undermine the GOI's hard-won gains of the last four years. There is already speculation among observers that the state assembly elections, due in October, will be postponed. The separatists, especially the hardliners among them such as Syed Ali Gilani, are the biggest winners from the unrest because they have reemerged as important players after having been steadily sidelined for their failure to deliver. The BJP is also a major of beneficiary of the controversy as it gains support from the Hindu backlash. End Summary. ¶2. (SBU) Following two days of escalating tension and violence over the Amarnath land transfer issue in Jammu and Kashmir (reftels),the situation improved on August 13, which saw fewer protests and confrontations between demonstrators and the security forces. Embassy's journalist contacts in the valley reported 1-2 persons killed and 3-4 injured in an incident of police firing in Srinagar. Curfew was relaxed for most of the day in valley. Curfew was also lifted in the Jammu region, which was peaceful with no reported violent incidents. There were no reports of communal altercations. Truck traffic was moving freely between Srinagar and Punjab after the Army moved into reopen the highway to allow the movement of goods and produce in and out of the valley. ¶3. (SBU) Yet, the situation remains tense and unpredictable after two days in which the intensity of the protests and the police retaliation in the valley reached levels not seen since the height of the urgency in the early 1990s. In the Jammu region, the scale of protests and the violence was unprecedented. Our journalist contacts are particularly concerned about the possibility of communal violence in the mixed Rajouri, Poonch and Doda and Kishtwar districts of the Jammu region, where there was one such incident on August 12. Truckers continue to be fearful of taking their vehicles into these areas lest they be confronted by one group or another. ¶4. (SBU) The death toll from police firing on August 11-12 was 21. The latest violence in the valley began on August 11 when angry crowds marched towards the LOC to protest the Hindu protests and the traffic disruptions in the Jammu region. Among the five deaths due to police firings on August 11 was that of separatist leader Sheikh Aziz, who was the head of a small "one-man" outfit called the People's League. Aziz was a hardliner, and had reportedly been a military commander with close ties to Kashmir-related jihadis. He had little following among Kashmiris but in death immediately became a symbol of Indian brutality. His body lay in the Jama Masjid in Srinagar on August 12 as several thousand people streamed through to pay their respects. Crowds then broke the security cordon around the houses of the separatists leaders Syed Ali Gilani and Mirwaiz Farooq, who had been under house arrest for some days. Gilani and Mirwaiz led Sheikh Aziz's funeral procession to the Martyr's NEW DELHI 00002223 002 OF 003 Graveyard, where 50,000 mourners gathered to hear their fiery speeches. Indian newspapers ran front page photographs of mourners waving Pakistani flags. Security personnel retreated to their camps during the funeral procession to avoid further confrontation. ¶5. (C) Meanwhile in Delhi, the UPA government continued to hold all-party meetings in search of a compromise formula. Home Minister Shivraj Patil chaired an all-party meeting for a second straight day on August 12, but there was no breakthrough. Another all-party meeting was held on August 13 are reports are that the Prime Minister will call another meeting on August 14. As it has every year, the All Party Hurriyat Conference has given a call for India's independence day on August 15 to be observed as a "black" day. ¶6. (C) Comment: August 13 was a better day in Jammu and Kashmir than the previous two but the atmosphere continues to be highly charged, with emotions running high and the continuing risk that small issues will reignite the violence. Embassy expects the situation will remain tense, at least for a few more days if not longer, particularly since Indian independence day on August 15 will provide more fuel to protesters on both sides. The official end of the Amarnath pilgrimage next week may help lower the temperature even though the issue now is much bigger than the Amarnath Shrine land transfer matter that first ignited the protests (reftels). One positive sign throughout the six week unrest has been the absence of terrorist/jihadi activity embedded in the protests. At the height of the Kashmir uprising in the early 1990s, protests in the valley would frequently be accompanied by terrorist bombings and/or grenade attacks designed to provoke heavy-handed responses by the security apparatus and further polarize the situation. ¶7. (C) Comment (continued): In a sign of the GOI's sensitivity over Kashmir, it reacted sharply to Pakistani statements on the Kashmir violence. MEA Spokesman Navtej Sarna said that the August 11 statement of Pakistani Foreign Minister Qureshi calling the actions of the Indian security forces in Kashmir excessive and unwarranted was "clear interference in the internal affairs of an integral part of India." He threatened repercussions for the Composite Dialogue between India and Pakistan when he added that such statements do not "contribute to creating an atmosphere necessary for the dialogue process ... to move forward." Last week, the GOI had taken offense at the Pakistani Senate for expressing concern at the situation and advised the Senate to focus on issues where it had "locus standi." Embassy advises that the GOI is likely to lash out in similar fashion to any other international statements of concern at the situation in the state. The Indian state believes it has worked assiduously at great cost and pain over the last two decades to to try to restore normalcy and address the grievances of its Kashmiri people and will see international calls for action as meddling by those who have no knowledge of the ground realities nor any insights into the solutions and pitfalls that surround the issue. ¶8. (C) Comment (Continued): For the GOI, the current turmoil in the valley threatens to undermine some of the hard-won gains of the last four years. There is already speculation among observers that the state assembly elections, due in October, will be postponed. The tourists have disappeared. Economic activity has slowed. The UPA government has so far shown no signs that it has the skills and the imagination to resolve the situation and bring the state back on the path it had been on for four years. The Congress is a loser for its failure to anticipate the problem and its inept handling of it for the last six weeks. The other two main-stream political parties (PDP and NC) in the valley are discredited because they were a party to some of the decisions that lead to the Amarnath controversy, yet stoked the flames in the early days of the unrest and now have been upstaged by the separatists. The separatists, especially the hardliners among them such as Gilani, are the biggest winners because they have reemerged as important players after having been steadily sidelined to a point where they were becoming subject of ridicule in the valley for their failure to deliver. The BJP is also a major of beneficiary of the controversy as it gains support from the Hindu backlash to what may be perceived as an unreasonable and petulant Muslim attitude to the Amarnath pilgrimage. NEW DELHI 00002223 003 OF 003 WHITE