PARLIAMENT BEGINS DEBATING CONFIDENCE MOTION,

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 05 NEW DELHI 002004

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PARM TSPL KNNP ETTC ENRG TRGY IN
SUBJECT: PARLIAMENT BEGINS DEBATING CONFIDENCE MOTION,
RESULT STILL TOO CLOSE TO CALL


1. (SBU) SUMMARY. The first day of the two-day special
session of parliament opened on July 21 and will culminate in
the confidence vote late on July 22 that will determine the
future of the Congress Party-led United Progressive Alliance
(UPA) coalition government and its ability to advance the
U.S.-India Civil Nuclear Cooperation Initiative. The
commencement of the special session followed a tumultuous
July 19-20 weekend during which the government experienced at
least a dozen discrete gains and losses, as undecided parties
declared positions, ambivalent parties issued whips to
prevent fragmentation, and individual members were picked off
by rival camps. On July 21, media outlets reported differing
totals for each camp. No clear consensus has emerged. As of
July 21, Post's best estimates are 262 votes in favor of the
UPA government and the nuclear initiative, 265 against, and 2
confirmed abstentions, with 13 remaining undecided. (No more
than 271 votes will be required for a majority, likely less
due to absences and abstentions.) Also as of July 21,
thirteen MPs remained undecided. Post believes eleven are
leaning toward supporting the UPA government -- either by
direct vote or by abstaining -- while two are leaning
against.


2. (SBU) SUMMARY CONTINUED. Talk around town over the July
19-20 weekend focused on Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) leader
Mayawati's efforts to project herself as the anti-government
icon, leading to speculation that should the UPA government
fall, Mayawati's closed-door dealings could win her the right
to claim the Prime Minister's office in some sort of third
front government without holding early elections. Local
media searched out every source available to discern trends
in the shifting alliances, sparking an unfounded rumor that
the Prime Minister would resign. One Congress Party
spokesman claimed that as many as 15 BJP representatives
would abstain out of fear that Mayawati would somehow cobble
together enough support to become Prime Minister should the
UPA fall. Another well-placed source in Congress said that
the chances are nil that a caretaker government would proceed
with the deal. In parliament, Prime Minister Singh took the
high ground by defending the record of his four-plus year
government, opposition leader Advani assailed the Prime
Minister for failure on all counts, and Foreign Minister
Mukherjee defended the nuclear initiative. Other speakers
from the Left, Samajwadi Party, and Mayawati's BSP crowed
familiar lines, followed by representatives of more obscure
parties who raised a litany of issues, some unrelated to the
confidence motion. END SUMMARY.

Lots of Changes, But Little Clear Direction
- - -


3. (SBU) Furious political bargaining ensued over the July
19-20 weekend with several small parties declaring their
positions ahead of the start of the special session of
parliament on July 21 followed by the confidence vote on July

22. No clear consensus has emerged. As of July 21, Post's
best estimates are 262 votes in favor of the UPA government
and the nuclear initiative, 265 against, and 2 confirmed
abstentions, with 13 undecided. (With 543 occupied Lok Sabha
seats and two confirmed abstentions, no more than 271 votes
will be required for a majority, likely to be further reduced
by absences and abstentions; in the event of a tie, Speaker
Chatterjee would presumably vote with the opposition.) These
estimates represent a net gain of three votes for the UPA and
10 votes for the opposition since July 18. The large gain
for the opposition came from the previously undecided Shiv
Sena, which officially declared for the opposition. However,
media speculated that at least one, if not more, of the Shiv
Sena's twelve MPs may abstain. Smaller gains and losses of a
few MPs emerged throughout the weekend as undecided parties
declared positions, ambivalent parties issued whips to
prevent fragmentation, and individual members were picked off
by rival camps. On July 21, media outlets reported differing
totals for each camp with no clear winner. (The highly
dynamic political landscape is illustrated by at least a
dozen discrete shifts over the last two days, described in
detail in paragraph 13.)


4. (SBU) As of July 21, thirteen MPs remained undecided.
Post believes eleven are leaning towards support for the UPA
while two are leaning against. The support from those
favoring the government could take the form of either a vote

NEW DELHI 00002004 002 OF 005


for the UPA or an abstention. (Paragraph 14 includes a
detailed break-out of undecided MPs.)

Politically Charged Atmosphere in Delhi
- - -


5. (U) High political drama seized Delhi over the July 19-20
weekend as MPs of all stripes exercised their leverage to
gain as much power as possible. Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister
and Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) leader Mayawati held meetings
with several undeclared parties and emerged as a strong voice
against the UPA government. Her standing as a leader of
opposition nearly eclipsed that of the UPA's two main
enemies, L.K Advani's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the
Left parties, led by communist Party of India-Marxist (CPI-M)
general secretary Prakash Karat. There was even speculation
that should the UPA government fall, Mayawati's closed-door
dealings could win her a claim on the Prime Minister's office
in some sort of third front government without holding early
elections.


6. (U) Local media searched out every source available to
discern trends in the shifting alliances. The thinly sourced
reporting included numerous false claims of support or lack
thereof for both sides. On July 19, an unfounded rumor
circulated that the Prime Minister would resign. The press
was -- and continues to be -- awash with bold statements from
opposing camps that the UPA would sail through the trust vote
or go down like a sinking ship. To bolster their numbers,
the BJP even flew back a former film star-turned-MP from knee
surgery in the U.S. in order to vote against the government.
The media reported several stories of MPs who will be brought
from hospitals, against their doctors' advice, to cast their
votes. With neither side with a clear majority, post expects
media speculation to run rampant until the votes are counted.



7. (U) On July 20, Prime Minister Singh and opposition leader
Advani held dueling dinners for their supporters. Media
counted eight absent BJP MPs, one of whom attended the UPA
dinner. Four others were reportedly in ill health, but the
absence of three others has fueled speculation that
significant numbers of BJP members may abstain on July 22. A
senior Congress Party official claimed to PolCouns on July 21
that as many as 15 BJP representatives would abstain out of
fear that Mayawati would somehow cobble together enough
support to become Prime Minister should the UPA fall.
Another well-placed Congress leader told PolCouns on July 21
that "the chances are nil" that a caretaker government would
proceed with the nuclear initiative if the UPA government
loses the confidence vote.

Inside Parliament: A Taste of the Speeches
- - -


8. (SBU) The scheduled 16-hour special session of parliament
opened at 11:00 and dominated local media coverage. Prime
Minister Singh took the high ground by defending the record
of his four-plus year government, opposition leader Advani
assailed the Prime Minister for failure on all counts, and
Foreign Minister Mukherjee defended the nuclear initiative.
Other speakers from the Left, Samajwadi Party, and Mayawati's
BSP crowed familiar lines, followed by representatives of
more obscure parties who raised a litany of issues, some
unrelated to the confidence motion. During breaks in the
session, media focused on Speaker Chatterjee's "defiance" of
his party by remaining in the chair, footage of the Shiv Sena
MPs sitting together in a group, and JMM leader Shibu Soren
sleeping during the debate.


9. (U) Prime Minister Manmohan Singh opened the debate by
moving a one-line confidence motion: "That this House
expresses its confidence in the Council of Ministers." He
praised left leaders Jyoti Basu and Harkishan Singh Surjeet,
along with current UPA leaders and Tamil Nadu Chief Minister
Karunanidhi as being the architects of the UPA government,
which has so far governed for four years and 2 months. He
avoided mentioning current CPM leaders like Prakash Karat and
Sitaram Yechury. The Prime Minister listed some of the
achievements of his government and commented about rising
inflation, but only glancingly touched on the nuclear
initiative.

NEW DELHI 00002004 003 OF 005




10. (U) In an hour-long speech, opposition BJP leader L.K.
Advani charged the government with failure on all counts and
for presiding over four years of "misrule." He covered a
range of issues including internal security and inflation.
Advani emphasized that it was the government that had called
for the confidence vote after losing the support of its own
partners over the nuclear initiative. Advani said he was
neither against nuclear energy nor against a "strategic
relationship" with the U.S. (or Japan or Russia),but said,
"We would not like India to be a party to an agreement which
is unequal," adding that the India-U.S. nuclear deal makes
India a "subservient partner." Advani made it clear that his
party would "renegotiate" the nuclear deal and seek a
constitutional amendment so that no international agreement
could be carried out by any government without the
concurrence of parliament. Advani said it was neither the
opposition BJP nor the Left parties that were responsible for
the present crisis, but the UPA itself. Advani also took a
swipe at the Prime Minister, saying, "Without the Congress
president's (Sonia Gandhi) approval, you will not take a
single step." Advani's charge that Manmohan Singh had not
supported the BJP government under Prime Minister Atal Bihari
Vajpayee when it executed the Pokharan nuclear tests in 1998
drew a sharp response from Prime Minister Singh, who disputed
the comment and asked that it be "substantiated" as well as a
rebuke from Speaker Chatterjee, who said that Advani "should
know better" than to reveal specifics of a 1998 Raya Sabha
debate. Advani was interrupted by MPs from the Congress
Party and others several times despite attempts by Speaker
Chatterjee to restore order. Advani blamed the UPA
government for side-tracking important issues like terrorism.
He pointed out to serial blasts in Mumbai, Malegaon,
Hyderabad and Jaipur and terror attacks in Jammu and Varansi
in recent months.


11. (U) Foreign Minister Pranab Mukherjee defended the
government and the need for the deal, calling the Prime
Minister "visionary." He said that it was the need of the
hour for India to seek alternative energy and that mining of
uranium in the northeast could not be carried out for various
reasons. He said that the nuclear deal would be a "visa to
the nuclear club," reminding the parliament that the nuclear
initiative would not only facilitate nuclear commerce with
the U.S. but also with other members of the international
community. Mukherjee expressed disbelief that parliament was
willing to bring down a government that "brought about 9
percent growth."


12. (U) Mohammad Salim of the CPI-M took the floor next and
charged the government with deviating from the Common Minimum
Program. He said that the government was very keen on the
deal but little bothered about burning issues such as
inflation. He said that the Left could never support a
government that was giving up national sovereignty by
becoming a junior partner of the U.S. Ram Gopal Verma of the
Samajwadi Party (SP) said that the deal was in India's
interest. He called upon the members to rise above petty
political considerations and vote in India's national
interest. He finally made an appeal to members to vote at
least for their self interest to save their seats until the
term of this House runs out. BSP representative Brajesh
Pathak charged the UPA government with mortgaging the country
to the U.S.

Further Detail: A Dozen Shifting Positions
- - -


13. (SBU) The highly dynamic political landscape is
illustrated by at least a dozen discrete shifts over the last
two days, as follows:

-- Lok Sabha Speaker and CPI-M member Somnath Chatterjee has
refused calls from within his party to resign, saying his
position in the Lok Sabha is "above politics." Chatterjee
will vote last, most likely abstaining, but would presumably
cast the decisive vote against the UPA in solidarity with his
party in the event of a tie.

-- Samajwadi Party member S.P. Singh Bhaghel formally
declared his intent to vote against the UPA government
calling the nuclear deal "anti-Muslim." Atteq Ahmad, one of

NEW DELHI 00002004 004 OF 005


the jailed Samajwadi Party members, stated that he is
undecided. Both he and Afzal Ansari, the other jailed SP
member, are weighing their options. Should they desert the
SP their likely home is Mayawati's BSP.

-- Rebel Dravida Munnetra Kashagam (DMK) MP Thiru Maran, who
had previously said he would abstain, announced he will vote
for the UPA. The DMK is a UPA supporter, but Maran had
strayed from the party because of a falling-out with DMK
leader and Tamil Nadu Chief Minister M. Karunanidhi for
reasons based in local Tamil Nadu politics.

-- Of the three Janata Dal-Secular (JD-S) MPs, one had
already declared against the government. On July 20, JD-S
leader Deve Gowda emerged from a meeting with BSP chief
Mayawati and stated that the remaining two MPs would likewise
vote against the UPA. Both leaders appeared to be
pre-positioning for the next national elections.

-- After meeting with the Prime Minister over the weekend,
Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) leader Shibu Soren officially
declared that his party's five MPs will vote for the UPA
government. Soren's support was finally sealed with a
Cabinet berth for himself along with other inducements.

-- In a turnabout, Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) chief Ajit Singh
declared that his party's three MPs would vote against the
UPA government. After meeting with Uttar Pradesh Chief
Minister and BSP leader Mayawati, the UP-based Singh reversed
his stance in what appears to be political positioning for
the coming national elections.

-- BJP member Bhushan Sharan from Uttar Pradesh stated his
intention to defect from the party in favor of the Samajwadi
Party due to local considerations and vote for the
government. A suspended BJP member from Gujarat, Somabhai
Patel, has reportedly switched allegiances and will vote for
the UPA government, but Post believes his decision will not
be made until the last minute.

-- One of eight Janata Dal-United (JDU) MPs, Ramswaroop
Prasad, confirmed his support for the UPA while another,
Pookunhi Koya, is wavering. Both MPs stand to lose their
seats because of redistricting which made them soft targets
for the UPA government.

-- The Shiv Sena, which supports the nuclear initiative but
works closely with the BJP in Maharashtra, announced its
intention to vote against the UPA government, however not all
of its members attended the solidarity dinner hosted by BJP
leader L.K. Advani. Media speculated that at least one, and
possibly more, Shiv Sena members may yet abstain.

-- Cracks appeared over the weekend in the Telangana Rashtra
Samithi (TRS),with dissident MP A. Narendra telling the
press he is considering voting for the UPA. Previously, all
three TRS members had stated opposition to the government
unless they moved forward with Telangana statehood, which is
a non-starter for the UPA government.

-- As with most of the independents and one-MP parties, the
Mizo National Front (MNF) will hold its decision until the
last minute. Post had thought the MNF would vote against the
UPA, but he remains undecided.

-- Mamata Bannerjee, the sole representative of the All India
Trinamool Congress (AITC),announced her intention to abstain
on July 21. Bannerjee is a BJP supporter and served as a
minister in the previous NDA government. However, she
loathes the Left and her abstention was the most expedient
middle ground.

The Fence-Sitters: 13 Key Votes
- - -


14. (SBU) The following is a detailed breakout of the 13
undecided MPs:

-- Two Samajwadi Party members remain on the fence, Afzal
Ansari and Ateeq Ahmad, both from Uttar Pradesh and both in
jail. They will hold out until for the best possible deal.
If they defect, it will be to Mayawati's BSP.

NEW DELHI 00002004 005 OF 005



-- Embassy contacts report that the Jammu and Kashmir
National Conference's (J&KNC) two MPs will either vote for
the UPA or abstain, but are unlikely to vote against the
government. Party officials told Embassy staff their hopes
of forming a government following state elections in October
depend upon a coalition with the Congress Party.

-- Suspended BJP MP Somabhai Patel has been wavering in his
support for the BJP for local political reason in Gujarat and
could be picked off by the UPA.

-- Pookunhi Koya, JDU member from Lakshadweep is also
wavering for local political reasons and could bolt. Some
media have already placed him in the UPA camp with the other
JDU rebel, Ramswaroop Prasad, but Post believes he remains
undecided.

-- Jailed BSP member Umarkant Yadav remains undecided, but
contacts report he is leaning toward supporting the UPA,
partly because his own party boss, Mayawati, arranged for his
arrest when she summoned him to her house.

-- A senior Congress Party floor manager told PolCouns on
July 21 that five Independents MPs remain undecided, with
four leaning toward supporting the UPA government and one
against. The potential supporters include Wangyuh Konyak
from Nagaland, Thupstan Chhewang from Jammu and Kashmir, who
is negotiating for Union Territory Status for Ladakh and
Sansuma Bwiswmuthiary from Assam, who is holding out for
assurances of development projects for his constituency, and
Mani Charenamei from Manipur, who supports an increase in the
size of the state of Nagaland. Vanlalzawma from Mizoram is
leaning toward opposing the government.

-- Dissident TRS MP A. Narendra told the press on July 20 he
is considering voting for the UPA. Previously, he had been
against the government, but Consulate Chennai reports
Narendra, though undecided, may be leaning toward support for
the UPA.


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