JULY 22 CONFIDENCE VOTE RESULT FAR FROM ASSURED

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 001985

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/23/2018
TAGS: PREL PARM TSPL KNNP ETTC ENRG TRGY IN
SUBJECT: JULY 22 CONFIDENCE VOTE RESULT FAR FROM ASSURED

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Steven White for Reasons 1.4 (B and D)


1. (C) SUMMARY. As of July 18, the last business day before
the special session of parliament begins on July 21 and
culminates in the confidence vote on July 22, the Congress
Party-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government's
victory is far from assured, with the future of the
U.S.-India Civil Nuclear Cooperation Initiative hanging in
the balance. Officially declared positions on the confidence
motion are 259 votes in favor of the UPA government and the
nuclear initiative, 255 against, and 2 confirmed abstentions,
with 27 undecided. Shiv Sena's 12 votes constitute the
largest block of the undecided votes; some party members may
abstain. The other 15 undecided votes consists of a motley
assortment of independents and small parties with diverse
agendas and shifting loyalties. Post believes 10 are leaning
toward supporting the UPA, 2 are leaning against, and three
remain indeterminate. The jailed members of parliament are
likely to vote. The UPA government will need the support of
the majority of the undecided members -- and as many
abstentions from Shiv Sena or others as possible -- to
prevail in the confidence vote. Negotiations will go down to
the wire and the result may be close. END SUMMARY.

Government Leads By a Nose, But Too Close To Call
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2. (C) The numbers have tightened considerably as of Friday,
July 18, the last business day before the special session of
parliament begins on Monday, July 21 and culminates in the
confidence vote on Tuesday, July 22. Based on conservative
estimates, official declared positions on the confidence
motion are 259 votes in favor of the UPA government and the
nuclear initiative, 255 against, and 2 confirmed abstentions,
with 27 undecided. (The government needs a majority of the
543 Lok Sabha members present and voting, which would require
at most 272 votes for a majority, but likely less depending
on abstentions and absences.) Shiv Sena's 12 votes
constitute the largest block of the undecided votes. The
party is allied with the BJP, but supports the nuclear
initiative; some of its members may abstain. The other 15
undecided votes consists of a motley assortment of
independents and small parties with diverse agendas and
unclear loyalties. The UPA government will need the support
of the majority of the undecided members -- and as many
abstentions from Shiv Sena or others as possible -- to
prevail in the confidence vote.

Trend Does Not Favor Government
- - -


3. (SBU) These conservative estimates reflect a general trend
against decisive support for the government in recent days
that leaves it short of previous best-guess estimates.
Gradually, the pool of likely UPA government supporters has
diminished as four likely supporters switched to the
opposition and 10 remain unwilling to commit. The UPA lost
four votes to the opposition: one Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam
(DMK) member defected from the UPA Coalition and three
Independents chose to support the opposition. The UPA
government has so far been unable to lock in another 10
votes, including five from Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) -- a
dubious UPA Coalition Member -- two from Janata Dal-Secular
(JD-S),and three Independents. Despite these conservative
estimates, Post still anticipates that several of these
undecided members will side with the UPA government in the
end.


4. (SBU) The opposition has gained some ground at the expense
of the government. In addition to the three Independents who
shifted support from the government to the opposition
described above, three Samajwadi Party members have indicated
their intention to break ranks with their party and oppose
the government. However, one Independent and a defector from
Mayawati's Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) formerly thought to
oppose the government indicated that they are undecided.

Who Are Undecided and Why?
- - -


5. (C) Attention now focuses on the undecided individuals and
small parties that collectively commands 27 Lok Sabha votes.
Post believes 10 are leaning toward supporting the UPA, 2 are
leaning against, and three remain unknown, while some of Shiv

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Sena's 12 members may abstain. Several parties are in
negotiations with the government or opposition for spoils,
while others continue to debate the most advantageous
position to take, in many cases based on very individual or
local calculations. The parliamentarians their positions are
as follows:

-- The Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM),is a UPA member and its
five MPs are likely to vote as a block. Party leader Shibu
Soren had been a UPA Minister and is currently in
negotiations with UPA leaders for a ministerial post (as well
as possibly bribes). Post believes a compromise will be
reached in favor of the UPA.

-- Two of the three Janata Dal-Secular (JD-S) MPs remain
uncommitted, while the third has said he will vote against
the government. Party leader Deve Gowda continues to
negotiate terms with the government and will meet Prime
Minister Singh on July 19.

-- Embassy contacts report that the Jammu and Kashmir
National Conference's (J&KNC) two MPs will either vote for
the UPA or abstain, but are unlikely to vote against the
government. Party officials told Embassy staff their hopes
of forming a government following state elections in October
depend upon a coalition with the Congress Party.

-- The single MP representing the All India Trinamool
Congress (AITC),Mamata Bannerjee, remains uncommitted. She
is a BJP supporter and served as a minister in the previous
NDA government. However, she loathes the Left and would find
voting with them distasteful.

-- Three Independents MPs remain undecided, with two leaning
toward supporting the UPA government and one against. The
potential supporters include Thupstan Chhewang from Jammu and
Kashmir, who is negotiating for Union Territory Status for
Ladakh, and Sansuma Bwiswmuthiary from Assam, who is holding
out for assurances of development projects for his
constituency. Mani Charenamei from Manipur, who supports an
increase in the size of the state of Nagaland, is leaning
toward not supporting the government.


6. (SBU) The UPA government's hopes for abstentions rest
primarily with MPs from two BJP allies, Shiv Sena and the
Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD). Shiv Sena's 12 MPs and SAD's
eight MPs are pro-U.S. and favor the nuclear initiative, but
both are also officially part of the BJP-led opposition
National Democratic Alliance (NDA). Shiv Sena shares the
BJP's right wing ideology and a symbiotic relationship in
Maharashtra. The SAD governs the Punjab in coalition with
the BJP. Nevertheless, neither party has issued a "whip,"
which means members could abstain without facing expulsion.
A Congress Party leader in Madhya Pradesh told POLOFF on July
11 that Congress Lok Sabha floor managers believed Shiv Sena
would abstain. SAD leader and Punjab Chief Minister Prakash
Singh Badal reportedly has come under criticism from senior
party members for having shown "undue haste in unilaterally
announcing" the decision to instruct his MPs to vote against
the UPA government. While SAD has publicly stated it will
vote against the UPA government, Shiv Sena remains publicly
uncommitted.

Jailed MPs Likely to Cast Votes
- - -


7. (SBU) Post's assessment includes six MPs who are currently
in jail and are likely to participate in the special session.
Three have already petitioned for and been granted by the
courts the "temporary bail" necessary to participate in the
special Lok Sabha session. These include Afzal Ansari
(Samajwadi Party),who is undecided, but contacts report he
is leaning against the UPA; Ateeq Ahmad (Samajwadi Party),
who will vote for the UPA; and Rajesh Rajan (Rashtriya Janata
Dal),who will vote for the UPA. The other three jailed MPs
have likewise submitted the necessary paperwork to the courts
and are likely to receive permission to attend the session.
Jail release is pending for Suraj Bhan (Lok Jan Shakti
Party),who will vote for the UPA; Mohammed Shadabuddin
(Rashtriya Janata Dal),who will vote for the UPA; and
Umarkant Yadav (Bahujan Samaj Party),who is undecided, but
contacts report he is leaning toward supporting the UPA,
partly because his own party boss, Mayawati, arranged for his
arrest when she summoned him to her house. Political

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observers believe these MPs are negotiating for curtailments
of their prison terms, among other incentives, and predict
that those who vote for the winning faction are unlikely to
return to prison.

SP Cautions Not To Believe Everything We Read
- - -


8. (C) One news report on July 18 claimed that the Samajwadi
Party "hit the crisis button" when only 16 of its 39 Lok
Sabha members turned up to a party meeting to prepare for the
July 22 vote. However, Embassy staff spoke with two MPs who
attended the meeting, Reoti Raman Singh and Kirti Bardhan
Singh, who both emphatically called the story a "pure
concoction" and confirmed that 33 MPs attended the meeting.
Those who did not attend were rebels Munawwar Hassan and Jai
Prakash, as well as two jailed MPs Ateeq Ahmad and Afzal
Ansari. Two other MPs, Beni Prasad Verma and Raj Babbar, are
both suspended from the party, but are close to the Congress
Party leadership and have announced their intention to vote
in favor of the government.

Comment: This Is Going to Be Close!
- - -


9. (C) Last minute deal-making has produced a blurring of
commitments as the vote nears. Formerly firm supporters have
been seized with doubts, fence-sitters have issued
noncommittal or inconsistent statements, and formerly unified
parties have fought fragmentation. Motivations are as
diverse as India's democracy, including individual ambition,
greed, party interests, and of course assessments of national
interest. This churning is likely to continue over the
weekend and right up until the last votes are cast.


WHITE