POLITICAL BARGAINING CONTINUES PRIOR TO KEY VOTE IN PARLIAMENT

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 04 NEW DELHI 001972



SIPDIS



E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/17/2018

TAGS: PREL, PARM, TSPL, KNNP, ETTC, ENRG, TRGY, IN

SUBJECT: POLITICAL BARGAINING CONTINUES PRIOR TO KEY VOTE

IN PARLIAMENT



REF: KOLKATA 209



Classified By: Charge D'Affaires Steven White for Reasons 1.4 (B and D)



1. (C) SUMMARY. Foreign Secretary Shiv Shankar Menon and his

delegation departed for Vienna on July 17 to brief the 35

Board members of the International Atomic Energy Agency

(IAEA) and another 19 members of the Nuclear Suppliers Group

(NSG) on the U.S.-India Civil Nuclear Cooperation Initiative.

In Delhi, government officials responded positively to

suggestions about how to address concerns emerging from

Vienna, particularly the need to begin negotiating an IAEA

Additional Protocol and for the IAEA to circulate India's

(INFCIRC) already-public separation plan as an official IAEA

document. Political horse-trading continued in anticipation

of the special session of parliament to consider the

confidence vote on July 21 followed by the vote itself on

July 22. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and opposition

Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) leader L.K. Advani each plan to

host a dinner for supporters on July 20; the parties will

presumably have to chose one or the other. An estranged

Congress Party MP and three Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS)

MPs publicly stated their intention to vote against the UPA,

leaving the government still clinging to a slim majority.

Small parties representing collectively about 20 votes find

themselves with generous suitors; one party chief has

reportedly succeeded in having the Lucknow airport renamed

after his father. The unrequited Left continued its

anti-government rant, but showed signs of internal strain.

Lok Sabha Speaker Somnath Chatterjee refused to resign

despite pressure from within the Communist party to do so and

has made it clear that he was not in favor of the Left voting

with the opposition BJP against the government, a position

that seems to have resonance among comrades disinclined to

face early elections. END SUMMARY.



GOI to Address IAEA Member Concerns, Fumbles on Scheduling

- - -



2. (SBU) Foreign Secretary Shiv Shankar Menon departed for

Vienna on July 17 for his briefing on July 18 to IAEA Board

members and NSG members on the U.S.-India Civil Nuclear

Cooperation Initiative. Local media had reported statements

by an IAEA spokesman on July 16 that the briefing by the

visiting Indian delegation had been canceled. In fact, the

briefing was scaled down from all 140 IAEA members to just

the 35 Board members, in addition to the 19 others that

comprise the 45-member NSG that do not also sit on the IAEA

Board. Menon is traveling with Department of Atomic Energy

director for strategic plans Dr. R.B. Grover, Department Of

Atomic Energy's (DAE) Gitish Sharma, and Chief of Staff

Naveen Srivastava. They will be joined in Vienna by

Geneva-based Ministry of External Affairs Counselor Venkatesh

Varma, a veteran of nuclear deal negotiations.



3. (C) Pursuant to recommendations from the U.S. Mission to

the IAEA, PolCouns raised two issues of concern to IAEA Board

members on July 16 with Ministry of External Affairs Joint

Secretary for the Americas Gaitri Kumar and Virender Paul in

the National Security Adviser's office. PolCouns stressed

the importance of starting negotiations on an Additional

Protocol as soon as possible, relaying that such agreements

usually take about a year to conclude but that IAEA Legal

could have a model text ready quickly if the Indians ask to

begin negotiations. PolCouns also reported, following

messages from UNVIE, that some IAEA delegations did not

understand the connection between the safeguards agreement

(with its blank safeguarded facilities list) and the

separation plan listing the civil nuclear facilities that

would fall under safeguards (already a public document).

PolCouns shared that the IAEA is prepared to circulate the

separation plan as an official IAEA document if the Indians

request it. Both Kumar and Paul promised to get on these two

tasks "right away" to set things up for a productive trip to

Vienna for Menon. On the Additional Protocol, the Prime

Minister's Special Envoy will have to push the Department of

Atomic Energy, which will have the lead. On the facilities

list, an instruction could go to India's mission in Vienna

fairly quickly.



UPA Maintains Precarious Lead In Vote Count

- - -





NEW DELHI 00001972 002 OF 004





4. (SBU) The special session of parliament to consider the

confidence vote will begin on July 21 and conclude with a

vote on July 22. Minister for Parliamentary Affairs Vayalar

Ravi claimed on July 15 that the government would prevail in

the July 22 confidence vote with over 280 votes cast in its

favor. Kuldip Bishnoi, an estranged Congress Party MP who

had been suspended for floating the idea of forming his own

party in December 2007, confirmed his intention to defect in

the confidence vote. (This development was apparently

expected by party insiders and not a leading indicator of

further fragmentation within the party.) Consulate Chennai

reported on July 17 that the Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS)

has publicly stated it will vote against the UPA. One of its

three members of parliament has broken from the party, but is

unlikely to support the government because the TRS has

positioned the trust vote as a statehood issue, so voting for

the UPA would mean voting against Telangana interests.



5. (SBU) Our best guess at this time show the government

maintaining its slim majority with the anticipated vote count

at about 273 in favor, 251 opposed, and 19 abstentions. A

similar analysis from the British High Commission tracks

closely with our numbers.



Dueling Dinners Force Parties to Declare Loyalties

- - -



6. (SBU) Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and opposition

Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) leader L.K. Advani each plan to

host a dinner for supporters on July 20, the evening before

the special parliamentary session begins on July 21. Media

reported that Advani will use the dinner as a strategy

session to field MPs to speak against the confidence motion.

Advani will also reportedly meet the BJP's National

Democratic Alliance (NDA) supporters on July 17, including

Chief Ministers of the states where NDA constituents are in

power. Rajasthan Chief Minister Raje reportedly plans to

skip the meeting, raising the ire of the BJP leadership.



7. (SBU) Prime Minister Singh's dinner on July 20 will

include the Congress Party's new allies in the Samajwadi

Party as well as other recent converts and fence-sitters from

smaller parties. The Telegraph quoted a senior government

source who said that PM Singh was "neither crunching numbers

nor seeking daily briefings on the political sensex. His

bottom line is clear." It also claimed that PM Singh was

upset with the BJP for allegedly recanting on an

"understanding" that it would support the deal. The article

concludes that if the government survives the July 22 vote,

PM Singh's priority would be to implement flagship social

programs to thank his party for rallying behind him.



Votes For Sale

- - -



8. (SBU) Behind the scenes, the Congress Party machine is

working overtime. Sonia Gandhi reportedly plans to meet

Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) leader Shibu Soren and Janata

Dal Secular (JD-S) leader H.D. Deve Gowda. Retaining the

support of JMM's five seats and the JD-S's three seats is

reportedly vital to the UPA government's strategy. In

exchange for retaining the support of the three votes of the

Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD),the Congress Party has reportedly

pledged its support to rename Lucknow's Amausi airport after

Chaudhary Charan Singh, father of RLD leader Ajit Charan

Singh, who may also get a cabinet seat.



9. (C) On July 16, PolCouns met with Captain Satish Sharma, a

Congress Party MP in the Rajya Sabha, a former Indian

Airlines Pilot, and a close associate of former Prime

Minister Rajiv Gandhi considered to be a very close family

friend of Sonia Gandhi. Sharma mentioned that he, as well as

others in the party, was working hard to ensure that the UPA

government wins the confidence vote on July 22. He said that

the Prime Minister, Sonia Gandhi, and Rahul Gandhi were

committed to the nuclear initiative and had conveyed this

message clearly to the party. Sharma said that PM Singh and

others were trying to work on the Akali Dal (8 votes) through

financier Sant Chatwal and others, but unfortunately it did

not work out. He mentioned that efforts to encourage Shiv

Sena (12 votes) to abstain were on-going. While different

Congress operatives were working on different groups of MPs,

Sharma said that Rahul Gandhi was personally working Omar



NEW DELHI 00001972 003 OF 004





Abdullah's Jammu and Kashmir National Conference (J&KNC),

whose two MPs are inclined to vote in favor of the UPA.

Sharma mentioned that he was also exploring the possibility

of trying to get former Prime Minister Vajpayee's son-in-law

Ranjan Bhattacharya to speak to BJP representatives to try to

divide the BJP ranks. He mentioned that if the party wins

the trust vote, they would then prefer to go for national

elections in February or March 2009, which would give the UPA

time to control prices and bring down inflation.



10. (S) Sharma's political aide Nachiketa Kapur mentioned to

an Embassy staff member in an aside on July 16 that Ajit

Singh's RLD had been paid Rupees 10 crore (about $2.5

million) for each of their four MPs to support the

government. Kapur mentioned that money was not an issue at

all, but the crucial thing was to ensure that those who took

the money would vote for the government. Kapur showed the

Embassy employee two chests containing cash and said that

around Rupees 50-60 crore (about $25 million) was lying

around the house for use as pay-offs.



11. (S) Another Congress Party insider told PolCouns that

Minister of Commerce and Industry Kamal Nath is also helping

to spread largesse. "Formerly he could only offer small

planes as bribes," according to this interlocutor, now he can

pay for votes with jets."



"What If"s: No Vote or a UPA Defeat

- - -



12. (SBU) PM Singh appears to have opened the door to the

Left to call off the vote, telling media on July 16 that the

government had the numbers to prevail in the confidence vote

and that it was "unfortunate" that the special session had to

be foisted upon parliament and distract the government from

addressing urgent issues like inflation. PM Singh publicly

acknowledged trying to get the BJP to support the nuclear

initiative by reaching out to former PM Atal Bihari Vajpayee,

but Vajpayee reportedly deferred to opposition leader L.K.

Advani to make the call.



13. (SBU) There are some signs that the GOI may decide to go

ahead with the nuclear initiative even if it loses the

confidence vote on July 22. Media quoted Rahul Gandhi on

July 16 as saying, "I support the PM 100 percent on the nuke

deal. We are going to win the trust vote, but even if the

government falls, so be it." He also claimed the BJP was

divided over the nuclear initiative, saying, "There are

people in the BJP who support the deal and do not know why

their party is opposing it." Rahul Gandhi also recalled how

Left parties in the mid-1980s had stonewalled his father

Rajiv Gandhi's efforts to introduce computers in government

offices and vision of a computerized India. Congress Party

Chief Sonia Gandhi said in Andra Pradesh on July 17 that the

government "will not compromise on the nuclear deal because

it is in the national interest."



Disagreements Among Comrades: Left Shows Signs of Strain

- - -



14. (SBU) The Left continued its rant against the government.

The Community Party of India-Marxist (CPI-M) Polit Bureau

groused that the Prime Minister's Office set a "dangerous

precedent" by meeting industrialist Mukesh Ambani on July 14,

during which Ambani reportedly offered help in securing Shiv

Sena support for the UPA government. The CPI-M said the

government's rejection of the use of force against Iran by

Israel was "timely," but that it would only be credible if

the government were to cut military ties with Israel.



15. (SBU) The Left has also begun to show signs of internal

strain. CPI-M Polit Bureau member Sitaram Yechury told media

on July 15 that the party erred in listing Lok Sabha Speaker

Somnath Chatterjee among its members who withdrew support

from the UPA government on July 8. Chatterjee said he does

not want to step down as Speaker despite pressure from within

the party to do so. He also wrote a letter to Prakash Karat

making it clear that he was not in favor of the Left voting

with the opposition BJP against the government. (Chatterjee

has looked to the UPA government to help him keep his

position as Speaker and appears to be rallying moderate CPI-M

members disinclined to join their comrades in voting with

their rival BJP against a government that they supported for



NEW DELHI 00001972 004 OF 004





several years.) Also on July 15, Samajwadi Party leader Amar

Singh and two other SP leaders called for Chatterjee not to

quit his post.



16. (SBU) Consulate Kolkata reported on the growing split

within the CPI-M (reftel). Many CPI-M members, particularly

Muslims, cannot fathom voving with the "communalist" BJP. A

large group of West Bengal MPs do not want to bring down the

government and are angry at Karat for his failed strategy.

If the government falls, they fear the CPI-M could lose 10-15

seats in new elections based on unfavorable recent local

election results. If the government survives, the Left will

be embarrassed for having achieved nothing on the issues that

are important to their constituents, few of whom care about

the nuclear initiative. Though defection is a possibility,

Communist Party discipline remains strong and members are

unlikely to vote with the government.



Communists Find Muslims To Be More Anti-BJP Than Anti-American

- - -



17. (SBU) A Times of India report on July 17 claimed that

Muslim MPs do not view the nuclear initiative confidence vote

as a communal issue, but rather one of differences in

perception of national interest based on party positions. Of

the 37 Muslim members of parliament, 26 are in parties that

have declared their support to the government for the

confidence vote, while 11 are with anti-deal parties.

Mayawati's Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) has tried to turn the

confidence vote into into a communal issue by reaching out to

Muslim councils ("bhaichara" committees) and Islamic scholars

in Uttar Pradesh and claiming that the Congress Party has

compromised their interests. This strategy appears to be

failing, partly because Muslims view the BJP as a more

immediate threat than closer relations with the U.S.

Communist Party of India-Marxist (CPI-M) MP and central

committee member Hannan Mollah reportedly told media, "Let's

see what strategy can be worked out to convince the Muslim

electorate that we are not working in tandem with the BJP."

Media reported a Forward Bloc local assembly member in West

Bengal, Mehboob Mondal, saying, "It's becoming difficult to

explain that we are not with the BJP. It's clear that

Muslims are not happy with us and their feelings may well

reflect on Lok Sabha results."



WHITE