DELHI DIARY, JAN 14-18

UNCLAS NEW DELHI 000196 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS C O R R E C T E D C O P Y CAPTION E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM SCUL KIRF SOCI KISL IN SUBJECT: DELHI DIARY, JAN 14-18 REF: A. NEW DELHI 130, B. KOLKATA 2 ¶1. (U) Below is a compilation of political highlights from Embassy New Delhi for December 14-18, 2007 that did not feature in our other reporting, including: -- Bhutan Election Commission Announce Historic Election Date -- Coalition Crisis in Goa -- Darul Uloom Deoband Madrasa authorizes use of contraceptives -- BJP Finds a Solution for Rajasthan's Gujjars -- Mayawati Celebrates, Congress and SP Seek Alliance -- Child Labor Update: Expanding the List of Hazardous Jobs May be on the Horizon Bhutan Election Commission Announce Historic Election Date -------------- ¶2. (SBU) On January 17, the Bhutan Election Commission (EC) officially announced that Bhutan will hold its first general elections on March 24, 2008. On this date, Bhutanese citizens will go to the polls to elect 47 representatives to serve in their National Assembly (lower house of Parliament). This election, which kicks off a historic transition from an absolute monarchy to democracy, will be fought between two political parties, the Druk Phuensum Tshogpa (DPT) and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). ¶3. (SBU) The EC also decreed that campaigning can begin on January 22 with the two political parties submitting a letter of intent, a copy of their election manifesto, and audited financial reports. Names of candidates can be submitted to the EC until February 7. Television debates between party presidents have not been announced but candidates may hold public debates in their constituencies after February 7. ¶4. (SBU) This tiny Himalayan Buddhist kingdom has been preparing for democracy since former monarch Jigme Singye Wangchuck decided to hand power over to an elected government. The first stage of this transition took place in December when 55 percent of 300,000 registered voters in Bhutan went to the polls on December 31 to elect representatives to the National Council (the upper house of Parliament). Voter turnout in the March election is expected to be much higher. The Embassy plans to send observers. Coalition Crisis in Goa -------------- ¶5. (U) On January 17, the Speaker ofthe Goa legislature suspended the state assembly to prevent a vote on a financial bill. This move was sparked by a small rebellion of four of the 23 member Congress-led coalition government in Goa who announced that they are withdrawing their support to Congress Chief Minister Digambar Kamath. In a house of 40, this threatens to reduce government strength from 23 to 19. Of the people withdrawing support, three belong to the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) and one is an independent. In response, the BJP, with 16 members in the state assembly, has called for elections to elect a new assembly. ¶6. (U) The crisis is prompted by tiny alliance partners (the NCP and one other party) wanting a bigger share of power. In addition, some of the governing alliance sought a reversal of the Goa government's recent decision to scrap the SEZs in the state. In the incestuous nature of Goan politics, the single member parties in the Goa legislature are as likely to support a BJP-Ied coalition as a Congress-led coalition. Congress and the NCP national leaderships have rushed "fire-fighters" to Goa to try and save the coalition, if need be, by changing the chief minister. We expect there to be more drama this weekend. Darul Uloom Deoband Madrasa authorizes use of contraceptives -------------- ¶7. (U) In response to a request from a married man asking to use condoms to help space out his children, the influential Islamic center, Darul Uloom Deoband, issued a fatwa authorizing the use of contraceptives. The clerics responded that use of temporary prophylactics was allowable so that mothers can properly care for and nourish their young children. Surgical procedures including vasectomies, tubectomies or abortion, are only permitted when the mother's life is in danger, said the clerics. ¶8. (U) Comment: The recent fatwa belies common perceptions that Muslims in India are entirely against family planning. While countries such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Pakistan discourage contraception, others such as Turkey and Iran encourage its use to check their growing populations. According to a GOI report, 37% of Indian Muslims use contraceptives compared to the national average of 47%. This recent announcement reflects that Wahabi Deoband may be breaking away from its conservative roots. End Comment. BJP Finds a Solution for Rajasthan's Gujjars -------------- ¶9. (SBU) On January 17, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led Rajasthan government sent a letter to the Prime Minister recommending the Gujjar community be listed as a "nomadic tribe" and thus eligible for a four to six percent quota allotment for education and employment. In doing so, the government seems to have found an elegant solution to the Gujjar demand to be included as a Scheduled Caste/Schedule Tribe (SC/ST),which would have granted them broad access to education and employment benefits. Whereas adding Gujjars to the SC/ST list would require amending the Indian Constitution, putting them on the list of nomadic tribes would not. If the Gujjars accept the solution, the Rajasthan government will have deftly finessed what was shaping up to be a damaging political problem in the run up to state assembly elections later this year. ¶10. (U) In May 2007, Gujjars went to the streets demanding to be downgraded from the social category of Other Backward Castes (OBCs) to SC/ST. By June 2007, Rajasthan erupted in violence, after police fired on peaceful Gujjar protesters. The clash between the police and Gujjars quickly expanded to include one of the largest beneficiaries of ST/SC quotas, the Meenas -- a politically influential community -- who did not want to share their benefits. At that time, Post issued a travel warden notice due to the increasing severity of the situation, including damaged train tracks and roadways to major tourist sites. ¶11. (U) Gujjars felt betrayed by BJP Chief Minister Vasundhara Raje whom they accused of reneging on her campaign promise of pushing for Gujjar be inclusion in the SC/ST roster. Since the politically influential Meena community opposed this change, Raje faced a serious dilemma, which many thought would result in her political demise. Stalling for more time, Raje pulled together a Committee to review the Gujjars demands but the ploy backfired when, on December 18, the Justice Chopra Committee determined that the Gujjar community did not qualify for SC/ST status. Against this backdrop, Gujjars had threatened to take to the streets again. Mayawati Celebrates, Congress and SP Seek Alliance -------------- ¶12. (U) On the occasion of her 52nd birthday, Uttar Pradesh (UP) Chief Minister Mayawati announced several development projects in sectors including power, infrastructure, education, health, and poverty reduction. She also downplayed her January 7 threat to withdraw from the United Progressive Alliance, and endorsed the breakup of UP into three states. At sycophant-laden parties in Lucknow and Delhi, the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) chief was showered with gifts and feted with a 52kg cake. The Financial Times reports BSP office holders were encouraged to bring a minimum "gift" of $7,700. ¶13. (U) Comment: Mayawati's relations with Congress remain strained as party leaders realize that BSP gains come at Congress' expense. But both parties appear to agree on a UP breakup. Electorally, the breakup would primarily hurt Mulayam Singh Yadav's Samajwadi Party (SP). This week both the SP and Congress made friendly overtures towards each other in the press, possibly leading to an alliance yet again against the BSP. End Comment. Child Labor Update: Expanding the List of Hazardous Jobs May be on the Horizon -------------- ¶14. (U) The Child Labour Technical Advisory Committee recommended that nine more activities be added to the current list of 15 hazardous occupations and 57 "processes" which cannot employ children under the age of 18. The proposed expansion will include prohibiting children from being involved with excessive heat or cold, mechanized fishing, timber handling and loading, food processing, beverages industry, diving and mechanical lumbering. There are also rumors that a complete overhaul of the Child Labour (Prohibition and Regulation) Act of 1986 is on the docket, as well as procedures to repatriate migrant child workers to their homes and rehabilitating them so they do not draft back into the workforce. ¶15. (SBU) Comment: Even if the proposed amendments are adopted and the law overhauled, no one is waiting with bated breath for immediate social revolution. However, we find it noteworthy and encouraging that over the past 5-7 years, India has become increasingly comfortable in acknowledging that it has a child labor problem to contend with. Even better, there is general acceptance in public and private circles that passing a few good laws isn't sufficiently addressing the situation. With the support of an active socially-conscious media, India has begun to build the momentum needed to grapple with its domestic demons. MULFORD