Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08NEWDELHI194
2008-01-18 12:51:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy New Delhi
Cable title:
MODERATE KASHMIRI SEPARATISTS BANDING TOGETHER
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C O N F I D E N T I A L NEW DELHI 000194
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/18/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR PBTS MOPS KDEM KISL PK IN
SUBJECT: MODERATE KASHMIRI SEPARATISTS BANDING TOGETHER
PRIOR TO STATE ELECTIONS
Classified By: PolCouns Ted Osius for Reasons 1.4 (B, D)
COMING IN FROM THE COLD
- - - - - - - - - - - -
C O N F I D E N T I A L NEW DELHI 000194
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/18/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR PBTS MOPS KDEM KISL PK IN
SUBJECT: MODERATE KASHMIRI SEPARATISTS BANDING TOGETHER
PRIOR TO STATE ELECTIONS
Classified By: PolCouns Ted Osius for Reasons 1.4 (B, D)
COMING IN FROM THE COLD
- - - - - - - - - - - -
1. (C) Former violent insurgent and longtime peaceful
Kashmiri separatist Shabir Shah decided January 14 to join
the Mirwaiz faction of the All Parties Hurriyat Conference
led by moderate separatist Mirwaiz Omar Farooq. The decision
had been a long time coming, with Mirwaiz and his cohorts
spending over a year courting Shah and urging his
participation in their group. Shah's decision further
isolates hard line Kashmiri separatist Syed Ali Shah Geelani,
whose supporters have steadily defected to the Mirwaiz's more
constructive group for the past two years. Shah is known as
a lone operator with a big ego, so it is uncertain how well
he will submit to second fiddle status in Mirwaiz's group, or
if the group can even sustain his entry.
SAFETY IN NUMBERS
- - - - - - - - -
2. (C) Left unstated in the press conference and the news
stories is the fact that Jammu and Kashmir Liberation Front
leader Yasin Malik represents a growing threat to the Mirwaiz
Hurriyat because of his proven ability to demonstrate grass
roots support for his separatist formula from hundreds of
thousands of ordinary Kashmiris. Malik's whistlestop tour of
the entire Valley in 2007 resulted in speeches to as many as
500,000 people, and his petition campaign in 2006 collected
what he claims were a million signatures. Mirwaiz and Shah
are both feeling pinched by Malik and by mainstream
politicians from the PDP, National Conference, and Congress
parties, so they may have decided there was safety for their
standing in banding together.
NERVOUS ABOUT ELECTIONS
- - - - - - - - - - - -
3. (C) With state-level elections coming in fall 2008, the
Mirwaiz Hurriyat will be hard pressed by the Government of
India to join the electoral process, but their leaders have
told us that they see only risks and few certain gains in
doing so. We imagine the Mirwaiz Hurriyat members will again
sit on the bench in this round of polls, while seeking to
keep building themselves up into the undisputed voice of the
separatist tendency in Kashmir so as to leverage that to try
to engage with the Indian Government on a more equal basis.
If polling turnout in the fall election is strong, and
competitors like the PDP or NC do well, however, it will
signify what most observers already believe and what many
experts on Kashmir and Kashmiris themselves say: the
majority of Kashmiris are sick of the pro-Independence
rhetoric, fear what is happening in Pakistan, and want to
return to the status quo ante of 1989 and before. If that is
the message, the Mirwaiz Hurriyat will realize its days of
prominence are coming to an end.
MULFORD
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/18/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR PBTS MOPS KDEM KISL PK IN
SUBJECT: MODERATE KASHMIRI SEPARATISTS BANDING TOGETHER
PRIOR TO STATE ELECTIONS
Classified By: PolCouns Ted Osius for Reasons 1.4 (B, D)
COMING IN FROM THE COLD
- - - - - - - - - - - -
1. (C) Former violent insurgent and longtime peaceful
Kashmiri separatist Shabir Shah decided January 14 to join
the Mirwaiz faction of the All Parties Hurriyat Conference
led by moderate separatist Mirwaiz Omar Farooq. The decision
had been a long time coming, with Mirwaiz and his cohorts
spending over a year courting Shah and urging his
participation in their group. Shah's decision further
isolates hard line Kashmiri separatist Syed Ali Shah Geelani,
whose supporters have steadily defected to the Mirwaiz's more
constructive group for the past two years. Shah is known as
a lone operator with a big ego, so it is uncertain how well
he will submit to second fiddle status in Mirwaiz's group, or
if the group can even sustain his entry.
SAFETY IN NUMBERS
- - - - - - - - -
2. (C) Left unstated in the press conference and the news
stories is the fact that Jammu and Kashmir Liberation Front
leader Yasin Malik represents a growing threat to the Mirwaiz
Hurriyat because of his proven ability to demonstrate grass
roots support for his separatist formula from hundreds of
thousands of ordinary Kashmiris. Malik's whistlestop tour of
the entire Valley in 2007 resulted in speeches to as many as
500,000 people, and his petition campaign in 2006 collected
what he claims were a million signatures. Mirwaiz and Shah
are both feeling pinched by Malik and by mainstream
politicians from the PDP, National Conference, and Congress
parties, so they may have decided there was safety for their
standing in banding together.
NERVOUS ABOUT ELECTIONS
- - - - - - - - - - - -
3. (C) With state-level elections coming in fall 2008, the
Mirwaiz Hurriyat will be hard pressed by the Government of
India to join the electoral process, but their leaders have
told us that they see only risks and few certain gains in
doing so. We imagine the Mirwaiz Hurriyat members will again
sit on the bench in this round of polls, while seeking to
keep building themselves up into the undisputed voice of the
separatist tendency in Kashmir so as to leverage that to try
to engage with the Indian Government on a more equal basis.
If polling turnout in the fall election is strong, and
competitors like the PDP or NC do well, however, it will
signify what most observers already believe and what many
experts on Kashmir and Kashmiris themselves say: the
majority of Kashmiris are sick of the pro-Independence
rhetoric, fear what is happening in Pakistan, and want to
return to the status quo ante of 1989 and before. If that is
the message, the Mirwaiz Hurriyat will realize its days of
prominence are coming to an end.
MULFORD